So far in 2019, Jurickson Profar has a slash line of .120/.170/.180. If you squint hard enough, you can see boo/boo/boo. As an Asian man, I don’t even have to squint at all. Anyways, he’s been brutal to start the season. As a result, his ownership in ESPN leagues has dropped from 89.6% to 77.7%. Trash or treasure?

For full disclosure, I wasn’t that high on Profar coming into the season. He was being drafted as the #123 overall player on average in NFBC drafts. My main gripe with him was the move from Globe Life Park in Arlington (one of the most hitter-friendly parks) to Oakland Coliseum (one of the most pitcher-friendly parks) for home games. With that said, he could be had for free or cheap right now. Steamer has him projected for 13 home runs, 8 stolen bases, 67 runs, and 61 RBI. Nothing to get naked and jump up and down in the street for, but in conjunction with the multi-position eligibility (1B, 2B, SS, 3B), someone to definitely consider.

Perusing all the data, I’d feel good buying low on Profar because it seems like a timing issue. The strikeout and swinging strike rate are similar to last season. He’s not chasing more pitches outside the strike zone. For pitches inside the zone, he’s swinging more and making more contact. And herein lies the main issue. He’s popping up a ton more this season. Fangraphs has the IFFB% at 31.3%, while the Statcast data has the PU% at 16.7%. For perspective, last season, those numbers were 12.6% and 8.2% respectively. Profar has a barrel rate of 0% and a hard contact rate of 23.8%. Translation? He’s not squaring the ball up.

When I look at the pitch type data, Fangraphs has 48.2% fastballs thrown, a 4% decrease from last season, and a 2% increase in both the curveball and changeup. Small sample size for sure, but early on, it looks like pitchers have been attacking Profar a little differently to start the season. It’s not like Profar is a wide-eyed rookie. He’s a vet now that’s experienced the adjustment process. He should get going at some point. TREASURE

 

Jason Heyward (28.1% – increase of 23.1%) was one of the most added players in ESPN leagues over the past week. I was so smitten with Heyward when he first made it to The Show. He was for sure going to be the Next Big Thing. Guess not. I’ve been so off the Heyward train that I was all set to write him off as TRASH and move on. But I saw some things in the data that piqued my interest. After being a murderer of gophers throughout his career, Heyward has joined the Launch Angle Revolution. According to Statcast data, Heyward currently has a launch angle of 19.3%. Since 2015, he had never had a number above 10.9%. As a result, the GB/FB is under 1.00 for the first time ever and the FB% of 50% is the first time above 36% in his career. The hard hit rate is at 39.3%. Heyward has been above 30% only two other times. When I look at the plate discipline numbers, the thing that jumps out to me is the increased aggressiveness. He’s swinging 8% more at pitches in the strike zone. In addition, he’s chasing 5% fewer pitches outside the zone. There will always be skepticism when it comes to Heyward because he’s been so bad for so long but…..let’s not forget that he’s still only 29 years old and is a mammoth of a man at 6′ 5″ 240 pounds. So far, it looks like he has a plan at the plate and is waiting for his pitch. The key has been that he’s been consciously elevating the ball to do maximum damage when he does swing. TREASURE, BUT I’M SCARED

  1. CW says:
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    Heyward, Bruce, A. Gordon or Kiermaier in an OPS league?

    • Son

      Son says:
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      Heyward, as long as he doesn’t revert back to being a gopher murderer

  2. jason bourne says:
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    Profar is not a wide-eyed rookie no more, but if he’s not squaring the ball up, then it could be a vision problem. He may need glasses or contacts. Is he squinting? Will need to see that he can “see.” All this to say I rather take a chance on Heyward lol.

    • Son says:
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      Ha! That very well could be the problem. I like the “Will need to see that he can see”. Well done. I do think it’s still a timing issue. We shall “see”. With that said, I can see why you’d choose to with Heyward. He’s just burned me so many times.

  3. Ronald says:
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    Got an offer…dynasty league…chris sale for Gary sanchez…would you sell high on sanchez for Sale?

    • Son

      Son says:
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      Man, I’m usually a punt catcher guy but I’d rather have the 26 year old Sanchez instead of the 30 year old Sale here.

  4. Matty says:
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    Sale looks off this year. That may be a perfect confluence of you selling high and the other manager selling low in case Sale ends up DL’d.

    • Ronald says:
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      Now is the time to buy sale. A catcher isn’tuch. Odds are sanchez hits the dl too at some point.

      • What would you give up for Sale? Walker Buehler? Jose Berrios? Aaron Nola? How much to give up for a negative or unknown ceiling at this point? I would make an offer, but where do I draw the line? I know start low and work up, but don’t want to over pay for a guy that is not producing…

        • Ronald says:
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          I wouldn’t give them up at this point. I have Buehler and Berrios at decent prices. I was just wondering is Sanchez was worth it Sale. Sanchez is a catcher around rank 100. Sale has fallen. Has he fell 90 spots?

  5. Edgar Gonzalez says:
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    In a keeper league who would be better to keep Bryce Harper or Christian Yelich? I have Bryce Harper but have the option of trading for Yelich. Is Yelich better than Harper?

    • Son

      Son says:
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      I’d rather have Harper. Yelich has the higher floor, but I think Harper’s ceiling is much higher

  6. fake name says:
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    odor or profar? ros

    • Son

      Son says:
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      Odor

  7. PetFed says:
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    End of Bench: Christin Stewart, Heyward, Dwight Smith Jr. Freddy Galvis

    • Son

      Son says:
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      I’m taking a shot on Heyward to see if it’s for real

  8. Ronald says:
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    I ended up getting Sale for Edwin Encarnacion and Yandy Diaz. I have J.D. Davis who is comparable to Diaz and younger. Davis has similar stats to Diaz w/fewer at bats. I figured Sale was worth a flyer.

    • Son

      Son says:
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      I don’t hate it. The upside is immense.

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