Saint Nicholas of Myra was also known as Nicholas the Wonderworker due to the many miracles attributed from his prayers. He is also legendary for his secret gift-giving, which was the genesis for Santa Claus. Nicholas Castellanos has often been a Wonderworker himself, belting 34 home runs in 2021 with 100 RBI and providing 29 home runs and 106 RBI just last season. So far in 2024, though, he has been nothing like Saint Nick. More like Grinch Nick. Over 10 percent of owners at ESPN dropped him over the last week and I’m here to dig into the trash to see if the drops were warranted.
Castellanos is 32 years old, 6-foot-4, 204 pounds, and bats from the right side. The Detroit Tigers selected him with the 44th overall pick in the 2010 MLB Draft. In 2019, he was traded to the Chicago Cubs. The following season, he signed with the Cincinnati Reds. Castellanos opted out two seasons later and joined the Philadelphia Phillies.
Throughout his major league career, Castellanos has been fairly consistent. The walk rate has been in the seven percent range while the strikeout rate has been in the low-to-mid 20s. There have been only four out of 11 seasons in which the ISO wasn’t at least .200, the first three seasons of his career and 2022. The OBP has been around .300 with a low of .298 and a high of .354.
In 68 plate appearances so far this season, Castellanos has scored two runs and driven in five. The walk rate is 8.8 percent, the strikeout rate is 25 percent and the ISO is .000. The slash is .177/.250/.177.
The BABIP is .244 and the ISO is not going to remain .000 all season, so we should expect some positive regression. But let’s dig in to see if there are concerning things we can uncover.
The barrel rate is only 2.2 percent, but the average exit velocity is 89 mph. The maxEV is only 109, though. The launch angle is a career-high 21.1 degrees, the first time over 17 degrees.
The line drive rate is 17.8 percent, only the third time in his career under 20 percent. The flyball rate is a 51.1 percent, the first time over 43 percent while the infield flyball rate is 13 percent, only the second time above 10 percent. He still has a balanced plate approach, going up the middle 37.8 percent of the time.
Looking at the plate discipline numbers, nothing stands out. He’s always had high chase and swinging strike rates. He’s actually making more contact in the zone while seeing a decrease in pitches outside the zone. Outside of those two numbers, everything else is in line with career norms.
So, my thinking is that he’s just getting under the ball, which is shown in the fly ball and infield fly ball rates. Pitchers are attacking him up in the zone as well, and will continue to do so until he makes them pay, which I think will happen sooner than later as he’s shown to have power in the upper parts of the zone in the past.
Once he gets his swing back to his line drive ways, he’s going to heat up. I have no doubt about that. He’s too good of a hitter with a proven track record that this just looks like early season, getting back into the groove stuff.
10 team keeper league. Would you trade Julio Rodrigues for Corbin Carroll and Jones SP Pitt???
There’s a lot of context that’s missing.
In a vacuum, I’d be good with that move.
YES !
Look at his statcast page… All blue
Of course it is. He’s been terrible! But will it remain like that? It could but I doubt it
.167 XBA .215 XWOBA .233 XSLG
.220 BABIP. .000 ISO. He’s going to heat up. The only question is will he have the .126 ISO like in 2022 or somewhere above .200, which he’s had in seven of the last eight seasons?
Nicholas Castellanos? What, are you his mother?
Lol. Would you like to know how we met?
Hehe, yes
Well, you see. It all started back in the summer of 19…
NO , WORSE I’M A PHILLY FAN !!!!
Swap off Bo for Heim 6×6 OBP?
I think so. While Bo is superior in OBP, Heim should get way more plate appearances
Nice work! Who do like better ROS…Ryan Weathers or Trevor Rogers? Thank you!
Weathers will likely come down while Rogers could get a little better. Both should end up in a similar place though. I like the velo for Weathers but Rogers has a better chase rate.
Trevor…
nice, thank you! great timing. i’m a little short on power and have been thinking about whether or not to try and buy low on castellanos.
would you trade either fraley or conforto for castellanos? and/or who’s a comp you think it might make sense to trade for him?
I’d keep Fraley. Would be okay with Conforto for Castellanos.
As for last question, really depends on your roster
turts. thanks!
TROUT !!! if there is any Truth to The Phillies being able get Trout , NOW is the Time for it . LA isn’t going anywhere, they need prospects, we may not have a lot of them but who we do have are GOOD ! to say the least, and I’m not saying sell the farm for him , but 2 years in a row , if you don’t/can’t make another deep run and WIN the WS , then you just do not get this many chances at it . WE needed pitching, we didn’t make any BIG moves , but gotta say who ever pulled the trigger on Turnbull, should get a freaking raise !!!! But if you can trade Castellanos and another bigger name and a prospect or 2, I say GO FOR IT NOW !!!
I just can’t see the Phils
Getting back to where they have been the last 2 years , 4 times , 3 (meaning this year ) is plausible !?!?!? , but I would love to do it with Cass, but he is just too inconsistent ! I Love the guy …. But Trout is the ‘WHAT CAN YOU DO FOR ME NOW’ GUY ! ”
Unfortunately Castellanos simply isn’t !
And we can’t wait to long , if LA gets it together, and even show some life , LA will do whatever they can to keep him … He wants to come to Philly … Everyone knows that .
Mid season trade !!!!!
I HOPE !!!! lol
Makes sense. I hope it happens for you