One Man’s Trash: Joc Has Regained The Pop

When I decided to write up this piece, my mind immediately went to Rocawear. Roc…Joc…Yes, I’m a simple, simple man, but there are levels to the simplicity. Plus, I always get nostalgic about the late 90s, which was the golden age of hip hop. Anyways, Rocawear was huge back in the day. Maybe not Timberland’s level, but not that far away. But the allure dissipated over time. That doesn’t mean it’s been vanquished from the annals of history, though. While there is no longer mainstream appeal, the brand has maintained utility as a cult/nostalgia factory. The career arc of Joc Pederson has followed a similar path, but unlike Rocawear, Pederson has been making a comeback. Let’s dig in.

Joc Pederson is 34 years old, 6-foot-1, 220 pounds, and bats from the left side. The Los Angeles Dodgers selected him in the 11th round of the 2010 MLB draft. He was with the Dodgers until 2020, his age 30 season. Then the nomadic lifestyle began with the 2021 split between the Chicago Cubs and Atlanta Braves. After two seasons with the San Francisco Giants, he visited Arizona for a season and is now in his second season with the Texas Rangers.

After four seasons in the Dodgers minor league system, Pederson became an integral part of the lineup in 2015, racking up 585 plate appearances and delivering 26 home runs, 67 runs, 54 RBI, and four stolen bases. The walk rate was 15.7%, the strikeout rate was 29.1%, and the ISO was .206. The batting average was only .210.

Over the years, the strikeout rate came down into the low-20s while the batting average settled in the .240 area. The primary reason was because he stopped facing left-handed pitching. Since that 585 plate appearance season in 2015, Pederson has eclipsed 500 plate appearances only once. In his career, Pederson has 4,118 plate appearances against right-handed pitching and only 676 against lefties.

With the Dodgers, Pederson hit at least 25 home runs four times. His peak season came in 2019 when he produced 36 home runs, 83 runs, 74 RBI, and a stolen base in 514 plate appearances.

Since leaving Los Angeles, he’s had two seasons with at least 23 home runs, with the other two seasons finishing with 18 and 15 home runs. Two of those seasons consisted of batting averages in the .270s, as the BABIPs were above .300.

Last season, Joc Pederson finished with nine home runs, 28 runs, 26 RBI, and two stolen bases in 306 plate appearances. The ISO was .147 while the batting average was .181 with a .203 BABIP. Pederson started that season going 0-for-41, then suffered a broken hand after getting hit by a pitch.

Things did not start off particularly well this season, slashing .225/.339/.326 through the first 100 plate appearances. The walk rate was good at 14.7% while the strikeout rate was fine at 22.9%, but the ISO was only. 101. The average exit velocity was good at 92.6 mph, while the hard hit rate was 50.7%, but the barrel rate was only 6%. The pull rate was only 35.8%. Over this span, Pederson was batting primarily fifth or sixth in the lineup with the occasional slotting in at second.

On May 12th, though, Joc Pederson was inserted into the leadoff position. Since then, he’s slashing .295/.411/.656 with a 14.9% walk rate, 17.6% strikeout rate, and .361 ISO. The BABIP is only .286, so it has not been all about luck. Over that span, he has four doubles, six home runs, 12 runs, and 13 RBI.

The average exit velocity is down to 89.6 mph, while the hard hit rate has decreased to 38.8%, but the barrel rate has spiked up to 12.2%. The pull rate has gone up to 54.2%. Now, that has caused him to get on top of the ball more, as the ground ball rate has gone from 45.8% from 36.4%, but the HR/FB was increased from 7.1% to 40%. The chase rate has decreased 2.3% while the contact rate in the strike zone has gone from 75.9% to 85.4%.

Being in the leadoff spot has obviously been a comfort zone for Pederson. He’s being more patient and turning on pitches when they come into his happy area.

Now, the lack of speed and utility-only position eligibility are Debby Downers. In addition, he’s a platoony loony only out there against right-handed pitching. That said, he’s not a bad source of cheap power, especially since he’s batting leadoff.