One Man’s Trash: Gelof My Lawn!

Recently, I played in a home poker game with some parents from my son’s school. Yes, the son of Son. The boys went out roaming the neighborhood and ended up Ding Dong Ditching. Back in my day, a homeowner would open the door and channel their inner Walt Kowalski and yell, “Get off my lawn!” Now? Crickets because of Ring doorbells. Sad. I fear that my son is going to tell me that they went to egg someone’s house, and there was a Thermacell-type device that disintegrated the egg in the air prior to reaching its destination. Well, we live, learn, and evolve. And that seems to be what is happening with Zack Gelof of the Athletics. He always tantalized with the power/speed profile, but was accompanied by low contact and high strikeout rates. Whatever the reason, that doesn’t seem to be the case anymore. Let’s dig in.

Zack Gelof is 26 years old, 6-foot-2, 205 pounds, and bats from the right side. He was selected by the Athletics in the second round of the 2021 MLB draft.

During his two years in the minors, Gelof had a double-digit walk rate with a strikeout rate in the high-20s. The ISO was around .200. In 2021, he hit seven home runs and stole 13 bases in 161 plate appearances. The following season, he hit 18 home runs and stole 10 bases in 440 plate appearances.

In 2023, he racked up around 300 plate appearances in both Triple-A and MLB. In Triple-A, he contributed 12 home runs and 20 stolen bases, while producing 14 home runs and 14 stolen bases in the majors. The ISO was around .230 with a strikeout rate in the 27% range. The .267 batting average in MLB was fueled by a .331 BABIP, while the walk rate was 8.7% compared to 13.3% in the minors.

2024 was his first season as a starter, racking up 547 plate appearances. Gelof finished with 17 home runs and 25 stolen bases, but the walk rate was 6.9%, the strikeout rate exploded to 34.4%, and the ISO dipped to .151. The batting average plummeted to .211.

Last season, Zack Gelof missed the start of the season due to a hamate injury. When he finally returned to major league action, he played in 30 games and accumulated 101 plate appearances. The walk rate wa 6.9%, the strikeout rate was 45.5%, and the ISO was .098. The batting average was only .174 with a .311 BABIP. He then missed the rest of the season due to a dislocated left shoulder.

Gelof did not start the season with the big club, but was called up shortly after and has received 208 plate appearances. He has 10 home runs, 34 runs, 28 RBI, and eight stolen bases over the span. The walk rate is 5.8%, but the strikeout rate is down to 25% while the ISO is back up to .214. The batting average of .286 is fueled by a .346 BABIP.

The average exit velocity of 89.2 mph is solid with a career-high 17 degree launch angle. The barrel rate is only 7.7%, though, a career-low. That said, the bat speed has increased to 73.7 mph. Over the last two seasons, that number has been 72.1 and 71.6 mph.

After having a pull rate in the 47% range for the first three MLB seasons, Zack Gelof is down at 41.5% this season. For fantasy, we usually want pulling and lifting into the seats.

That said, I’m encouraged by the plate discipline numbers. The chase rate is down to 23.2%, a 3% decrease from last season and 6% decrease from the career-worst 29.6%. Gelof is swinging less, 66.7% in the zone and 46.2% overall. Those numbers were above 70% and 50%, respectively. The contact rate in the zone is 78.1%, while the overall contact rate of 73.9% is the first time over 68%. The swinging strike rate of 11.9% is a career low by a significant margin.

Zack Gelof has power, as evidenced by the .200 ISO. Sutter Health Park is extremely hitter-friendly and will likely become a launching pad in the summer months. He is swinging faster but being more disciplined and selective in his approach. The sprint speed of 28.8 ft/sec is in the 90th percentile. Power? Check. Speed? Check. Environment? Check. Change in approach? Check. Whether that lasts or not remains to be seen, especially as pitchers will inevitably adjust, but let’s deal with that when it comes to the forefront. I almost forgot about the multi-eligibility at 3B, 2B, and OF. I’d scoop him up if available.