Rudy Gamble. Part man, part bot, but all legend. He is the being behind the curtain of the projections for Razzball baseball. It may or may not be in a basement. That’s top secret. He is the creator of the War Room, which I have become a devout follower of. There are multiple tools on the Razzball site to help dominate leagues, with my favorite being the Weekly Pitcher Planner. Everything just makes my life easier navigating the fantasy baseball season. I have had the honor and privilege of splitting teams with Rudy over the last two seasons. The puns and GIF exchanges have been the best but I’ve really garnered an appreciation for his process and methodology. He is my EF Hutton. When he talks, I listen. Granted, sometimes I wonder if it’s human Rudy or bot Rudy, but it really doesn’t matter at the end of the day. They are one and the same. So, a few weeks ago, we were talking over things and he mentioned Tarik Skubal. He said that the bot loved him ROS and that everyone should scoop him up. Was this a cry for help? Had SkyNet fully taken control? They are one and the same. Remember?
Well, since then, Skubal has made two starts and posted a 12.38 K/9 and 1.66 FIP in eight innings. Let’s break it down.
Skubal is 26 years old, 6-foot-3, 240 pounds, and throws from the left side. He was selected by the Tigers in the ninth round of the 2018 MLB Draft. He immediately displayed his strikeout prowess, posting a K/9 in the teens for every minor league season. He allowed only seven home runs in 144.3 innings.
In 2020, he made his MLB debut and had a 10.41 K/9, 3.09 BB/9, 2.53 HR/9, and 5.75 FIP in 32 innings. The following season, Skubal pitched 149.1 innings and, while the K/9 dipped to 9.88, every other number showed slight improvements. Before getting shut down last season, Skubal threw 117.2 innings and posted an 8.95 K/9, 2.45 BB/9, 0.69 HR/9, and the FIP plummeted to 2.96.
After relying primarily on his fastball, throwing the pitch 60.1% and 56% in his first two MLB seasons, Skubal changed his approach and dialed the heater down to 47.9% while increasing the slider usage to 30.7% and the changeup to 15%.
It’s a small sample size of only eight innings, but the fastball is averaging 96.2 mph so far this season. During his prior three seasons, the fastball velocity was in the 94 mph range.
Innings may be an issue for Skubal but he’s always had the ability to miss bats and now I understand why Rudy and the Bot have been so goo goo gaga over Skubal. Not many pitchers possibly available on the waiver wire boast the bat-missing ability of Skubal. Let’s say Skubal posts a K/9 of 10. There are only 15 pitchers this season who can lay claim to that. How about a 12% swinging strike rate? Only 25 pitchers.
