One Man’s Trash: A Lowe Point

Up is down. Left is right. Good is evil. Perspective is often everything in life, except that pants with zipper pockets are essential. There is no other acceptable answer. Last in your fantasy league standings? Turn it upside down. Voila! Hate how you look in the mirror? Turn around! Terrorist or freedom fighter? Depends on which side of the wall you are. Nathaniel Lowe of the Cincinnati Reds is having a spectacular start to the season for Nathaniel Lowe, but he has been meh for much of his career, so the question of if we should even care is the fantasy baseball equivalent of, “Do you even lift, bro?”

Lowe is 30 years old, 6-foor-4, 220 pounds, and bats from the left side. The Tampa Bay Rays selected Lowe in the 13th round of the 2016 MLB draft. He was traded to the Texas Rangers in 2020, spent four seasons in Texas before being traded to the Washington Nationals. After being released in August, the Boston Red Sox signed him to a one-year contract. The Reds then signed Lowe prior to the start of this season.

Throughout his minor league career, his plate discipline was excellent with double-digit walk rates and strikeout rates often in the high-teens. There was no speed and the power eventually developed, going from an ISO of .138 to over .200 by 2018.

Lowe made his MLB debut in 2019 with the Rays, racking up 169 plate appearances and producing seven home runs, 24 runs, and 19 RBI. The walk rate was 7.7%, strikeout rate was 29.6% and the ISO was .191. The .263/.325/.454 slash was buoyed by an elevated .340 BABIP.

With the Rays, the ISO was .191 and .209.

He became a full-time player in 2021 with the Rangers, receiving over 600 plate appearances in four of five seasons. The other season ended with 565 plate appearances. He did yeoman’s work over that span, hitting between 16 and 18 home runs in four of the five seasons. 2022 was the career year with 27 home runs and a slash of .302/.358/.492. That was the only time he batted over .300 in his career, which was helped by a .363 BABIP.

With the Rangers, the ISO was in the .150 range, except for 2022 and 2024, when it was .191 and .136.

This season, the ISO is .333 through 77 plate appearances! The obvious thought is that regression is coming, but I’m not a lazy Son. Let’s dig in first.

The average exit velocity is 91.1 mph, the highest number since his rookie season. The 13.9 degree launch angle is a career-high while the 15.1% barrel rate is the highest since 2020, the second season with the Rays when he posted a .191 ISO. The hard hit rate of 50.9% is also a career-high and the first time over 46%.

Over the last two seasons, the bat speed was 73.3 and 72.7 mph. This season, it’s at 74.3 mph.

That ain’t bad, yo.

Looking at the batted ball data, Nathaniel Lowe is hitting way more line drives and fewer ground balls. The flyball rate has decreased 3% from last season, so the 33.3% HR/FB is likely unsustainable. Or is it? The pull rate of 47.2% is a career-high by a wide margin, with the prior high at 34.6%.

Looking at Baseball Savant park factors, Great American Ball Park is second behind Coors Field for left-handed batters. For home runs, it’s ranked third!

The walk rate of 10.4% is within career norms. The 20.8% strikeout rate is a career-best and 5.3% lower than last season and around 2% lower than the prior three seasons. The BABIP is only .277, so the .275/.351/.609 slash looks fine. If anything, Lowe has gotten a little bit unlucky.

Lowe has been batting around fifth in the batting order. Now, Lowe saw an increase in playing time due to the Eugenio Suarez injury, and Suarez could return in a few weeks. That said, he suffered an oblique injury, and those are known to sap power and linger. In addition, Suarez is only on a one-year deal and wasn’t playing well to begin with, posting a 30% strikeout rate and .132 ISO. Even if Suarez returns, it’s likely that Suarez and Lowe would form a platoony loony at DH, with Lowe on the strong side. Lowe has a 200 wRC+ and .390 ISO against right-handed pitching. The BABIP is .342, though. Suarez has a 79 wRC+ against righties with a 92 wRC+ against left-handed pitching.