Here’s a fun list:

Carlos Gonzalez — 424.6 feet
Giancarlo Stanton — 422.8
Trevor Story — 420.3
Nomar Mazara — 415.8

A) Surprised to not see Cespedes since he started with 100 feet  B) Hot damn, Nomar!  C) There’s no C.  If you haven’t guessed, that’s the top distances averaged on home runs for players with at least 18 homers last year.  Two of the guys were Rockies, i.e., Coors, and the other one was Giancarlo.  Right behind Nomar Mazara was Nelson Cruz, Joc Pederson, Trout and Goldschmidt.  Oh, and tied with Mazara was Mitch Moreland.  Is there a non-home run hitter among these men, I ask sounding like a character from Game of Thrones.  Granted, I do believe it to be true (why do I sound like I’m talking Middle Ages English?) that if someone hits fewer homers there’s gonna be a chance their average distance will be higher.  In other words, Mazara hit 20 homers last year.  If he hit 30 homers, maybe he would’ve hit a few just-outta-heres and his average distance would’ve lowered, but he didn’t so I’m throwing out my theory that I just threw in there.  Don’t ask me why I didn’t just omit it to begin with and don’t end a sentence with with — dah!  If I wanted, I could link to or post a bunch of upper deck blasts by Mazara.  Seriously, he did not get cheated on his dingers.  I personally hate when my dingers are cheated on.  So, what can we expect from Nomar Mazara for 2017 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Well, second things first, he’s a sleeper, because he won’t be drafted until around 150 to 200 overall.  He’s a 21-year-old that just hit 20 homers that averaged distances hardly seen.  21 years old?!  This isn’t fair.  I don’t know why hype isn’t building hard for this guy.  It could be because of his lesser 2nd half.  I’m not talking his bum, I’m talking about August/September.  He hit .242 and his Ks skyrocketed to 25.4%.  Since he doesn’t have any speed whatsoever, he needs to hit to continue to prove valuable.  I’d say his 2nd half was merely growing pains that killed our Boner.  RIP.  His 2nd half doesn’t concern me.  If you’re all ears like Alfred E. Neuman, what does worry me is his fly ball rate.  He doesn’t hit a ton of them.  He hits grounders.  That’s not good for a guy with no speed and big-time power.  If he tweaks his swing, he could be a 40-homer hitter.  No foolsies.  Unfortch, we can’t just project a guy to change his approach even though he’s only 21 years old and it would be easier for him than, say, a 35-year-old.  Even with his worm killer tendencies, which could cause him to duck PETA, he will easily hit 25 homers.  Here’s what I said when he was first called up, “(Mazara) kinda reminds me of a young Matt Holliday, though from the other side of the dish.  I watched some of his YouTube highlights and he doesn’t struggle to hit balls a long way, but also doesn’t look like a fat turd that can’t make it to first.  I’m no scout, but watching him makes me think this is what scouts call sexy.  I’ve seen him compared to Miguel Cabrera.  Okay, no one is Miguel Cabrera until they are Miguel Cabrera, if you catch my drift, but Mazara doesn’t look like a guy that is going to disappoint.  .280 with 30 homers a season for many years.”  And that’s me quoting me!  (I went on to say this year I’ll project him for 20 HRs and .275.  He hit 20 HRs and .266.  Give me that gold star!)  So, for 2017, I’ll give Nomar Mazara the projections of 72/26/81/.277/2 in 554 ABs with upside from there and I want him on every team.

178 Comments
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Test Kitchen
Test Kitchen
5 years ago

Grey,

Who would you prefer in an OBP league:

EE or Cesp?

Thanks

truck171
5 years ago

would you trade benintendi for BUMGARNER,here my other keepers are (keep 6)standared 5X5 league and I have 10 th pick threw the draft 13 teams
Cabrera
Bregman
Sanchez NYY
Schwarber
Moncada
Hosmer
Cain
Marza
Reyes SP

J-Dawg
J-Dawg
5 years ago

I seem to have a lot of your sleepers on my keeper team. I’m getting excited. No, not THAT kind of excited. Well, ok, maybe that kind, but not because of the sleepers.

swaggerjackers
swaggerjackers
5 years ago

What does everyone have concerns with Dahl’s playing time?

STEVE B
STEVE B
5 years ago

here’s what i worry about with Mazara…….OPS VS RHP 791 …VS LHP .548…..i guess if you draft him watch to see if that continues or get a RH BATTER TO PLATOON HIM WITH.

Big Odio
Big Odio
5 years ago

I get an alert on my phone that say the Padres are interested in Peavy, Weaver and Fister. Talk about the taking them out to pasture trifecta

Big Odio
Big Odio
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: I said they were interested in weaver..Oooh maybe they can go after Jamie Moyer

Big Odio
Big Odio
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: hahaha. That’s what I get for not sleeping. Had the kids first volleyball game today. Had to be there before 8. Yuck…get up at 6:30 on a Saturday.

I like the double headed weavers. Get the Padres on the horn

The Hack
The Hack
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: that sounds like some upFRONT BUSINESS

Tiny Timmie
Tiny Timmie
5 years ago

JD vs Dahl and Moncada in an OBP keeper league?
Are you worried about Dahl’s playing time?

Cram It
Cram It
5 years ago

You do some offseason drafting, where is Dahl going? Or where do you think his ADP is reasonably?

Steve
Steve
5 years ago

Hey Grey,

Happy New Year! 9th/final keeper in 14-team H/H, in 19th round… Dahl or Benintendi?

Thanks

Steve
Steve
Reply to  Steve
5 years ago

@Steve: is it close?

Test Kitchen
Test Kitchen
Reply to  Steve
5 years ago

@Steve: Grey, any concerns about Dahl’s playing time? I’m just having a hard time seeing Desmond at first base. Is it legitimate to worry that he might move to OF and make playing time an issue for Dahl?

Test Kitchen
Test Kitchen
5 years ago

Grey,

I have Arrieta as my only keeper worthy pitcher as well as Villar and Story

Which do you prefer:

Sale

or

Lindor

Thanks,

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  Test Kitchen
5 years ago

@Test Kitchen: Keep Sale and Lindor instead of Villar?

Test Kitchen
Test Kitchen
Reply to  Cram It
5 years ago

@Cram It: Sorry, that was not written clearly. I have all 3 SS and was offered Sale for Lindor (and a few players I wouldn’t keep anyways).

Test Kitchen
Test Kitchen
Reply to  Test Kitchen
5 years ago

@Test Kitchen: I can also probably offer Villar instead of Lindor. From the comments it appears you prefer Lindor over Villar.

Would you prefer to have Sale over Villar?

Test Kitchen
Test Kitchen
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: what about Villar vs Syndergaard?

Thanks

Another Dan
Another Dan
5 years ago

Good read as usual Grey,

I have tried to trade for Mazara in my dynasty league on a couple of occasions. The owner is not interested. Might have to try again, I guess.

Just had a blockbuster proposed to me in that same (12 team H2H) dynasty.

I give : Rizzo, Duffy, Gallo
I get : Goldschmidt, Price

I get the best player in the deal right? I should be accepting it?

Dan

Another Dan
Another Dan
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey:

Thanks for the quick feedback. Am about to accept but just trying to squeeze a bit more out of the trade.

nick the dick
nick the dick
5 years ago

With Nate Karns going to the Royals, you think it affects Cram’s outlook on life at all?

Big Odio
Big Odio
Reply to  nick the dick
5 years ago

@nick the dick: he’s going to slit something and choke something. Not sure what those will be but he will.

nick the dick
nick the dick
Reply to  Big Odio
5 years ago

@Big Odio: Well if we’re talking chicken, I hope he’s choking not slitting

Big Odio
Big Odio
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: he does have a weird thing with Rays players, current and former. I wonder how he reacts when carlos what’s his name is on the tv

nick the dick
nick the dick
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: do you think Sheldon will be okay if he keeps cooking fantastic dishes?

nick the dick
nick the dick
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: Dude, feet is how the Hawaiians have flavored their food for thousands of years. And it’s all about that taste, bout that taste

nick the dick
nick the dick
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: “Only thing tougher was your chicken livers. Stop the tears, your dish was salty enough”

nick the dick
nick the dick
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: Just so you know, if you want to be done with this Shirley charade and hop on the Big Hait train i’ll still respect you in the morning

nick the dick
nick the dick
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: Don’t forget about whatever the hell is furnished by Pellegrino…I’d whore myself out to be featured in Food & Wine Magazine

nick the dick
nick the dick
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: That little sexpot from a few eps ago? Oh man, she was foine, like exceptionally sexy. I’d braise those thighs slow and low

nick the dick
nick the dick
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: I’d poach her eggs and leave em’ extra runny

Anthony
Anthony
5 years ago

OBP keep forever… I have two SS… should I swap Villar or Xander for Odor?

JoeyBell
JoeyBell
5 years ago

Daquiri question — Polonco vs Yelich — who has higher realistic ceiling next couple of years?

Chucky
Chucky
5 years ago

6×6 OBP keep forever . Need 2: Bregman Dahl Villar Lindor Moncada

Anthony
Anthony
5 years ago

OBP keeper league… long term… who do you like?
Villar, Story, Odor, Xander, Springer

Justin
Justin
5 years ago

OBP keeper league… trade JD for EE?

Scott Kimmel
Scott Kimmel
5 years ago

Grey,

I’m looking for SP, OF depth. My choices are as follows:

Devenski
Lugo
Colon
Marco Estrada
Iwakuma
Nova
Jaime Garcia
Kazmir
Sabathia
Shoemaker
Miranda

For OF:
Granderson
Span
Gardner
Pagan
Saunders
Markakis
Reddick
Chisenhall
Naquin
Dyson

Who should I bid one of my picks on and how high of a pick. I have the followings round picks available:
1st,2nd, 4th-10th round picks.

Scott Kimmel
Scott Kimmel
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

Lost Reddick. I bid my 2nd round pick (11th overall), and got outbid by someone with the number 2 overall pick in the first round.

Scott Kimmel
Scott Kimmel
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

should I go after Gardner or Span?

Scott Kimmel
Scott Kimmel
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

Grey,

Someone upped my bid on Devenski to a 3rd round pick. Let him go or up it to a 2nd?

Scott Kimmel
Scott Kimmel
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

Grey would you rather have Junior Guerra or Tanner Roark?

Scott Kimmel
Scott Kimmel
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

Grey a guy wants to do guerra and i get roark

TonyStark
TonyStark
5 years ago

How would you rank these guys in order of preference to keep for next 4 years? Story, Dahl, Benintendi, Mazara, Bregman – 10 team C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, IF, LF, CF, RF, OF, Util – R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, OPS… thanks!

JoeT
JoeT
5 years ago

Grey,

Cespedes or Desmond — Total Value for 2017?

Jason
Jason
5 years ago

So let’s say you’re in a keeper league (no $ or contracts) and you receive the following offer:

Side A trades Hanley
Side B trades Brantley and Zobrist

IF Brantley comes back healthy (a big IF), Side B wins this trade, right? Is this too big of a risk for the Hanley owner to take?

Which player(s) would you want for now and the future?

Alex
Alex
5 years ago

You go Taillon over Margot in dynasty league?

Alex
Alex
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: Thank you

M
M
5 years ago

Blackmon at $21 or Buxton $13 keeper league 6×6 roto obp 15 teams what side do you lean?

My gut says Blackmon but how close is the value?

ERad
ERad
5 years ago

Love me some Nomah this year – will be reaching as needed in my keep forever league.

Do you ever think about all the men we’ve had an unhealthy obsession with over the years – not that there’s anything wrong with it. Looking forward to another one.

Happy New Year G

ERad
ERad
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: Ha and there it is.

Geoff
5 years ago

Oh, Mazara! Be still my beating heart. You know I love me some Nomah!

TobiasFunkeAnalRapist
TobiasFunkeAnalRapist
5 years ago

Happy new years my man.
Long time razzballer (you’ve helped me win money the last 3 years so I owe you). Great work again, I have Dahl and Mazara in my minor league system and I have the option to keep Springer, Murphy, Odor, Arrieta or Yu. I’m thinking Odor because he will cost the less and is the youngest and I love him punching Jose. So my main question is: I already have Trout, do you think I will be fine in a 3 OF league with my other two guys as Dahl and Mazara? How would you compare Dahl and Mazara to each other? Thanks bro and keep up the good work.

TobiasFunkeAnalRapist
TobiasFunkeAnalRapist
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: Thoughts on Dahl vs. Mazara? Will those two plus Trout be good enough in a 12 team H2H league as my 3 outfielders? Thanks man.

Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
5 years ago

Btw, any chances of a Kiermaier sleeper post?

Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: Cool, looking forward!

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: Nate Karns!

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: Every TB starter!

Mike
Mike
5 years ago

Thanks grey! You are literally getting me through the winter. What do you project for Mazara in obp/slg?

Jim Powers
Jim Powers
5 years ago

I can only keep 2 of the following 4 players @$10 ea–Typical AL League. 8 category $260 auction.
OF Mazara,OF Kepler,P Manaea 3B Healy——-

..Mazara/Kepler???

Rich
Rich
5 years ago

Mazara or Ozuna for this season?

Big Odio
Big Odio
Reply to  Rich
5 years ago

@Rich: good question. Both had good first half’s and duds in the second. I say ozuna but it’s crazy close. Giancarlo health is the x factor

Old School Brother
Old School Brother
5 years ago

30 homers for Maz this year! Book it

Leon
Leon
5 years ago

Correa, Odor, Pollock, Polanco, Harvey, Willson Contreras, Buxton.

19 man dynasty league. The less you keep the more draft picks.
who do I keep?

Herbie Hancock
Herbie Hancock
5 years ago

Good morning G,

Happy new year to you and the mrs. I hope you made a lot of bad decisions on New Year’s Eve!! Haha.

I know your going to be flooded with keeper questions in the next 2 and a half months so I’ll ask mine early while there is less commotion. And as always I greatly appreciate your help. I’ve been a loyal razz reader since way back in the day when it was daily write ups and some rankings. I’m glad you’ve all made it to the big show!!!

12 team keeper. 6×6 ops and qs are extra catagories. We play only one util slot, but we have one extra infield slot. We keep 7 forever.

These are the possible keepers for me. Some vets but potential I think…..

Bryant
Cargo(col)
Lamb
Schoop
Russell
Desmond
Khris Davis
Brantley
Sano

Salazar
Fulmer
Aaron Sanchez
Quintana
De Leon

Thank you again in advance. Looking forward to the 16th!!

Mike
Mike
5 years ago

OBP dynasty, which side do you like more?

Giancarlo, Pederson
or
Votto, Yu, Moncada

CMUTimmah
CMUTimmah
Reply to  Mike
5 years ago

@Mike: I’m leaning towards that Moncada side on this one… but you’re giving up a TON of power, so the rest of your roster would need to be power heavy to make this a good trade for your team.

Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Reply to  CMUTimmah
5 years ago

@CMUTimmah: Totally, though having Votto means you can sell out OBP for a Khris Davis type (probably really cheap in OBP) without feeling the ~.300 OBPangs.

Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Reply to  Mike
5 years ago

@Mike: I’m definitely no expert like Grey, but in OBP I’d even do that for just Votto and Moncada (let alone an ace like Yu on top).

Big Odio
Big Odio
Reply to  Mike
5 years ago

@Mike: voto side for sure. Better balance and long term upside

Mike
Mike
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: what if it was Dahl instead of Votto?

Mike
Mike
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: Still go with the Moncada side or no?

Mike
Mike
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: thanks for all your input. One last question based on a changing deal:

EE, Giancarlo, Pederson
or
Votto, Moncada, Yu, Dahl, and 3 picks between 105-120

Cram It
Cram It
5 years ago

The Middle Ages reference reminds me of a line from Get Him to the Greek that cracks me up every time. Jonah Hill and Brand are in England, in a limo, and the driver is asking what directions he should take to get to the airport. He’s speaking barely legible British English saying something like, “Should I scurry up the chizek roundabout between Haslow and Barlow?” Jonah says, “What is this, fucking Middle Earth? Just get us to the airport okay?!”

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: Ha. Could be a thing but doesn’t ring a bell.

Wil
Wil
5 years ago

At first I was going to say not surprising to see Mooreland up there also due to the Ballpark in Arlington but then I checked Mazaras split and saw he had almost twice as many homers on the road (13) compared to at home (7), which got me a little more excited about Mazara. Especially considering the rest of the stadiums in the al west overall would prolly equate to be the toughest hitters parks in baseball.

I remeber last year you had stats for “just barely” home runs. Couldn’t you use that to see if your theory is accurate on Mazara?

Another question, this one on my fantasy team… The league is 12 teams 6×6 with ops and qs. Each team can keep up to 4 players every year at no cost pre draft. Rizzo, Arenado and Springer are locks. With my 4th keeper I have to choose between Braun and Jonathan Villar (Carrasco is the best pitcher on my last year’s roster). With Villar having ss and 2b eligibility, all those steals, and not killing you at avg or ops, good pop for a SB guy with 19 homers last year, plus Braun’s injury history I’m maybe leaning Villar. Steamer is calling for some big time regression, projecting Villar to have nearly 100 points less in OPS from last season and sizeable drop off’s everywhere else as well. And it’s really hard to not keep Braun who just went for 80/30/91/.305/16 and a .903 OPS last season.

So… Braun or Villar for me?

Thanks!

P.S.

Springer is a must keep over those 2 guys right?

Old School Brother
Old School Brother
Reply to  Wil
5 years ago

@Wil: The ballpark in Arlington isn’t quite the launching pad it once was. We added some walls that removed a good portion of the jet stream effect. It’s still a hitter park for sure, but no where near the level of Coors in my opinion

Big Odio
Big Odio
Reply to  Old School Brother
5 years ago

@Old School Brother: thank you for that I was going to comment the same thing. Oaktown steve brought this up 2 years ago or maybe it was last year. It’s like san diego, they brought in the walls and when it’s dry hot down there the balls fly out of the park.

Josh-NYC
Josh-NYC
5 years ago

Your sleeper posts are always the best out there. Before the season you should make one post that just lists all of the guys you wrote up like a cheat sheet. Thanks Grey!!!

Big Odio
Big Odio
Reply to  Josh-NYC
5 years ago

@Josh-NYC: if you click the 2017 sleepers posts link under the title it will take you to a page that has all these.

Buttler
Buttler
5 years ago

Thanks for another great update (“RIP” = LOL). I’m not sure I trust the recent power glut enough to totally doze on power this year, but you’ve definitely got options with players like Mazara near the end of the draft — how stoked would we be about a projection like this in 2014? Speaking of which, I’ve been going nuts trying to find a mock draft online. Do you know of any sites that have their app up and running this early?

REW
REW
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: I’ve also been looking and as far as I know none are up but when I find 1 ill def post it hope you do the same

Buttler
Buttler
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: Just saw that the Fantasy Pros draft simulator is up and running fwiw – not actually a mock draft but a useful free tool to get a very rough sense of how the board will be organized (the computer reached and took Trea Turner in the early second round).

Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
5 years ago

Thanks Grey. Had no idea he was crushing dingers so hard!

Bit of a random one for you – my 10-12 team H2H obp/ops league is going keeper this year, with teams getting 5 keepers at 10% inflation per year (making it less ideal to keep high ticket players). What sort of first rounder talents would you be targeting for a brand new keeper league of that format? I’ve been thinking clear top talents who “underperformed” slightly last year…Harper, Goldy (if at a discount), Correa – those sort of guys. Would you agree?

The other wrinkle is that after the draft portion, there are unlimited waiver grabs during the season (no FAAB) . . . so theoretically I could blow my auction budget on expensive studs (Trout Harper Correa Votto or Goldy for ~$150 out of $260) then round out my team using mostly $2 and waiver guys.

Also, Todd Frazier reference.

Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: Thanks! Yeah, tough choices. Good call on the strategy. I’m usually the fastest finger on waiver grabs in this league, so hopefully I’ll get some nice keepers from that pool.

Second half sneaky guys like Bregman / Dahl strike me as keepers who may get drafted on the cheap.

Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: For sure. Broxton (likely $1 in this league) and Sano could also be interesting guys for OBP keeps given those nice BB rates.

Squidblob
Squidblob
5 years ago

Dang, those guys stroked some long dongs.

Jay
Jay
5 years ago

When do the rankings come out ?

Packers
Packers
Reply to  Jay
5 years ago

@Jay: January 16th.

Natty Boh
Natty Boh
Reply to  Packers
5 years ago

@Packers: Arguably the greatest day of the year. Right up there w/ the 1st Thursday of the NCAA Tournament, St. Patrick’s Day, and free lap dance day at the Strip Club.

ChiCitySox
ChiCitySox
Reply to  Natty Boh
5 years ago

@Natty Boh: You pay for that lapdannce. Glitter doesn’t scrub off easy.

REW
REW
Reply to  Natty Boh
5 years ago

@Natty Boh: wow that makes this the most important day for sure becouse that list is pretty high on my list well ya know NCAA Torney not the Lap Dance Day LOL oh what the Date of that strip club thing not that i will be there or anything like that LOL !!!