At this point in the season, the waiver wire is mostly a wasteland. The obvious breakouts are long gone, the trade deadline has passed, and convincing yourself that the next guy to run into a .340 BABIP is finally breaking out probably isn’t going to save your fantasy season. That doesn’t mean there aren’t hitters who can help over the final month. It just means we have to dig a little deeper to figure out which players are actually giving us something useful. For this week’s Hitter Profiles, I am digging into a full lineup to review current skills, recent performance, and playing time. Some of these players are legitimate recent risers. Some are simply good hitters who aren’t owned enough. A few are bets on the underlying numbers finally catching up to the box score. Most are available in more than half of leagues or at least close enough to be late season targets. With that out of the way, let’s get into the nine.
Luis Campusano, C (14% rostered)
Campusano is the easiest player on this list to make a case for based purely on what he’s done. He’s hitting .301/.408/.496 with a 156 wRC+ over 157 plate appearances, and the plate discipline is better than you might expect from a catcher hitting over .300. He’s walking 14.0% of the time while striking out 21.0%. Over the last 30 days, he’s hitting .315/.422/.444 with a 150 wRC+, a 14.1% walk rate and a 17.2% strikeout rate.
There is a little more going on here than the batting average would suggest. Campusano’s .315 average over the last 30 days comes with a .257 xBA, so I wouldn’t expect the average to remain at that level. His recent .130 ISO also isn’t particularly exciting, and his .444 slugging percentage is well above his .391 xSLG. The encouraging part is that his plate discipline has remained strong while he’s continued to produce.
The reason I still like him is the combination of everything else. He’s playing almost every day, and San Diego has even used him at DH recently to keep his bat in the lineup. That’s a big deal at catcher, where finding regular at-bats is half the battle. If the average comes back toward earth but the plate discipline and playing time remain, he can still help in batting average, runs, RBI and some minor power. For a catcher sitting on 86% of CBS waiver wires, that’s plenty.
Tier 1: September Difference Maker.
Andrew Vaughn, 1B (32% rostered)
Vaughn is the boring one, and I mean that as a compliment. He’s been good for basically the entire season, hitting .303/.392/.456 with a 137 wRC+, an 11.3% walk rate, and a 15.1% strikeout rate over 265 plate appearances. The recent production has slipped a little to a 130 wRC+ and .294/.402/.397 over 82 plate appearances, but that’s hardly a collapse.
The last 30 day numbers do come with a couple of things worth watching. His strikeout rate has climbed to 23.2%, while his ISO has dropped to .103. At the same time, his recent .348 xwOBA is actually better than his .341 season mark, and his contact quality has held up. His recent 48.0% hard-hit rate is higher than his 43.2% season mark, while his 8.0% barrel rate remains respectable. In other words, the box-score power has disappeared a bit without the underlying contact falling apart.
The bigger fantasy selling point is that Vaughn is playing every day and hitting in the middle of the Milwaukee lineup. I don’t have to project playing time or hope somebody gets hurt. The opportunity is already there. He’s not going to win you September by himself, but a player who can give you a good batting average while accumulating runs, RBI, and some power has value when the waiver wire is this thin.
Tier 2: Strong September Option
Colt Keith, 2B (33% rostered)
Keith is probably the most interesting player on this list if we’re specifically looking for recent improvement. His season-long 109 wRC+ doesn’t tell you much, but he’s at 159 over the last 30 days. He’s hitting .329/.413/.500 during that stretch, and the improvement isn’t entirely a batting-average mirage. His walk rate has climbed from 6.9% to 12.5%, while his strikeout rate has fallen from 18.5% to 15.0%.
The catch is that Keith isn’t actually hitting the ball harder. Over the last month, his 87.9 mph average exit velocity, 39.7% hard-hit rate and 3.4% barrel rate are all below his season marks. His .329 average is also well above his .298 xBA. So, I don’t want to call this a locked-in breakout. The more interesting development is that he’s controlling the strike zone better and getting better results without needing a huge increase in contact quality.
The other wrinkle is playing time. Keith is a platoon bat and is primarily facing right-handed pitching, which obviously cuts into his plate appearances. Detroit is making those plate appearances count, though, with Keith hitting fourth or fifth when he does play. That gives him a much better RBI opportunity than most platoon bats. If the improved approach holds and he continues getting those middle-of-the-order opportunities against right-handers, there is plenty of September value here.
Tier 2: Strong September Option
Luis Rengifo, 3B (18% rostered)
Rengifo is the guy I’m most comfortable calling a hot-hand play. His season line is ugly, with an 85 wRC+ and a .243/.325/.323 slash line, but the player we’re getting right now looks considerably different. Over the last 30 days, Rengifo has a 135 wRC+ while hitting .286/.381/.440 with an 11.3% walk rate and a 17.0% strikeout rate. He’s also produced three homers and three steals in 106 plate appearances.
There is plenty of regression hiding in that line. His recent .286 average comes with a .270 xBA, while his .440 slugging percentage comes with a .389 xSLG. The .154 ISO and 4.1% barrel rate also aren’t exactly screaming power breakout. The better development is the plate discipline and the fact that the production has continued while he’s been getting full playing time.
That’s enough for me. Rengifo doesn’t need to maintain a .290 average or suddenly become a 30-homer hitter. If the improved walk rate remains and he continues getting regular at-bats, there’s still a useful fantasy player here. He can contribute in average, runs, RBI, steals and some power, which is a pretty good combination for a player who is still sitting on 82% of CBS waiver wires.
Tier 2: Strong September Option
Chase Meidroth, SS (57% rostered)
Meidroth is owned at 57% and therefore he’s obviously less likely to be sitting on the waiver wire. But if he is, the recent production is too good to ignore. He’s hitting .273/.347/.406 for the season with a 114 wRC+ over 513 plate appearances, and over the last 30 days he’s posted a 151 wRC+ with a .286/.371/.527 line. He’s hit five homers in 106 plate appearances during that stretch.
I’m not convinced we’ve uncovered a new power hitter. His recent .242 ISO is impressive, but his hard-hit rate has only moved from 35.0% for the season to 37.0% over the last 30 days, and his barrel rate has gone from 4.7% to 6.8%. His .527 actual slugging percentage is also well above his .395 xSLG. That’s a pretty big gap. Meidroth is absolutely producing, but the evidence for a fundamental power change isn’t there.
That doesn’t mean the player isn’t useful. His strikeout rate has dropped from 22.8% for the season to 18.9% recently, and he’s getting on base while making enough contact to take advantage of the opportunities he’s getting. The current bottom-third lineup spot limits the runs and RBI ceiling, though, which is why I don’t want to oversell him. If he’s available, he’s worth a look. Just don’t convince yourself that five recent homers means we’ve uncovered a new power hitter.
Tier 3: Deeper September Option
Jacob Young, OF (14% rostered)
Young might be the biggest ownership discrepancy on the entire list. He’s rostered in only 14% of CBS leagues, yet he’s been one of the better hitters on the waiver wire over the last month. Young has a 154 wRC+ over his last 76 plate appearances, hitting .344/.425/.492 with a 10.5% walk rate, an 11.8% strikeout rate and four stolen bases.
Of course, we’re not getting .344 the rest of the way. His recent .305 xBA is considerably lower than the actual average, and his .378 BABIP is doing plenty of work. His hard-hit rate is only 21.1% over the last 30 days, so this isn’t a sudden power transformation either. That’s not really the point. Young doesn’t need to hit 25 homers. If he gets on base, he can run, and the recent plate-discipline improvement makes it much easier for him to do that.
He’s also playing every day, although the bottom-third lineup spot puts a ceiling on the runs we should expect. Still, the combination of everyday at-bats, batting-average potential, improved on-base skills and stolen-base ability is exactly the type of player I want to find this late in the season. The .344 average will come down. The 154 wRC+ will come down. I don’t think the entire improvement needs to disappear with them.
Tier 1: September Difference Maker
Drew Gilbert, OF (5% rostered)
Gilbert is the deep dive. His season-long numbers aren’t going to convince anyone. He’s hitting .236/.322/.363 with a 93 wRC+ and five homers in 306 plate appearances. That’s why he’s 5% rostered. But the recent underlying numbers are much more interesting than the results. Over the last 30 days, Gilbert has a .403 xwOBA, a .299 xBA and a .521 xSLG, compared with actual results returning a .393 slugging and a .262 average.
That’s a pretty significant gap. His hard-hit rate has climbed from 34.1% for the season to 38.3%, and his barrel rate has jumped from 4.1% to 12.8%. At the same time, the actual production has been merely decent, with an 118 wRC+. This isn’t a case of finding a guy who is currently crushing everything and hoping to ride the streak. The interesting part is that the quality of contact has improved considerably, particularly the barrels, while there is still room for the actual production to catch up.
The playing time makes the gamble worth considering. Gilbert is playing almost every day, although he gets some rest against left-handed pitching. Since Gilbert bats left-handed, the important point is that he’s getting regular opportunities against right-handed pitching. The Giants have also experimented with him near the top of the lineup, giving him some paths to better counting-stat opportunities if that continues. At 5% rostered, I’m willing to bet that the improved contact quality turns into more production before the season ends.
Tier 3: Deeper September Option
Griffin Conine, OF (36% rostered)
Conine is exactly the type of player I want to find when looking for September power. He’s hitting .272/.364/.549 with a 149 wRC+ over 198 plate appearances, but the recent numbers are just as impressive. Over the last 30 days, he’s hit .266/.370/.544 with a 150 wRC+, a .394 xwOBA and a .278 ISO in 92 plate appearances.
The important part is that the power is backed up by the contact. Conine’s season-long 92.7 mph average exit velocity, 54.9% hard-hit rate and 16.8% barrel rate are excellent. Over the last 30 days, he’s at 95.2 mph, 54.7% and 17.0%, respectively. His .544 recent slugging percentage comes with a .539 xSLG. That’s not a player getting away with a few fortunate home runs. He’s hitting the ball hard enough to support the production.
There is a pretty obvious downside. Conine is striking out 28.3% of the time over the last 30 days, and the platoon split is significant. He’s been much better against right-handed pitching, so there will be some nights when the matchup isn’t ideal. The good news is that Miami has continued finding ways to get him into the lineup. He’s been used at first base, both corner-outfield spots and DH, and that versatility has helped keep the at-bats coming. We’re accepting the strikeouts, but we’re getting legitimate power and excellent contact quality in return.
Tier 2: Strong September Option
Willi Castro, UTIL (55% rostered)
Castro makes the most sense in the utility spot because his value isn’t tied to one position. At 55% rostered, he’s obviously less available than most of the names here, but the positional flexibility becomes more valuable as the season gets shorter. Being able to move a player around your lineup without sacrificing much offensive production is a real advantage when injuries and off days start piling up.
The recent offensive production gives us another reason to pay attention. Castro has a 124 wRC+ over the last 30 days with a .269/.348/.526 line, a .256 ISO and two stolen bases in 89 plate appearances. His recent barrel rate has jumped from 8.5% for the season to 12.3%, while his hard-hit rate has actually improved from 41.2% to 43.9%. His recent .353 xwOBA also supports the improvement.
The strikeouts are still there at 24.7%, and his .261 recent xBA is a reminder that the .269 average isn’t guaranteed to stick. That’s fine. Castro doesn’t need to hit .300 to be useful. The combination of power, speed and positional eligibility gives him several ways to help a roto team, and the recent contact improvement makes him more interesting than a player who is simply being rostered for flexibility. If he’s available, I would take the recent production seriously.
Tier 2: Strong September Option
