Zack Cozart is likely out the door this offseason with Eugenio Suarez moving to shortstop while Jose Peraza goes super-utility, and, after his previous season, that might be the only time ‘super’ is used in regards to Peraza.  That’s my best guess for Nick Senzel getting into the Reds’ lineup as the starting 3rd baseman.  If Cozart is re-signed, or the Reds want Suarez and Peraza both in the lineup or the Reds sign someone else, it throws this post into question.  To this point, my only questionable life decision was frosting my hair in the 90’s, so I’m fine with writing this post as questionable decision number two in my life.  Even in a best case scenario, Senzel will likely start the year in the minors until June, with Suarez not moving to short until then.  So, if Peraza and Suarez have a huge first two months, then Senzel might get delayed, even though it will appear in March like it’s a matter of time, so, yeah, this will be iffy on playing time.  What else is iffy about him?  Not much, which is why there’s even a Nick Senzel 2018 fantasy outlook post.  So, what can we expect from Nick Senzel for 2018 fantasy baseball?

Not to arouse Prospector Ralph, but Senzel looks like NL’s answer to Andrew Benintendi.  Andrew Seniorcircuitendi?  Hmm, maybe not.  At 22 years of age, Senzel looks like he could enter a major league lineup in April, hit .280+ with a 20/20 season.  *finds a woman on the street*  “Could you make a kissy face?”  *gets smacked*  “Wait!  I just wanted to emphasize how sexy this Nick is.”  *gets smacked again*  “This Nick is!  Ugh, forget it.”  Senzel doesn’t use his lower half much in his swing — you got no motion in the ocean!  This could limit his power.  Though, it makes me think if he gets stuck in an elevator with Josh Donaldson, Senzel could start hitting 35+ bombs.  “I literally just have to touch you and you will become the power hitter you always dreamed of.”  That’s Donaldson in an elevator.  Like Benintendi, Senzel appears like a safe bet to hit the ground running.  Hold on, frontal lobe, I’ll get to his speed.  In Double-A, he hit .340 with only a 18% strikeout rate, while walking 11% of the time.  This is pretty much his profile, and his strongest attribute.  Even if all else fails, I think he can hit .290+ for many years.  Obviously, since he’s so young, there’s time for him to mature into his power, and this is a guy who still hit ten homers in only 209 Double-A at-bats.  Oh, and his speed, yeah, he’s got that too.  His caught stealing rate wasn’t impressive, but he still grabbed five bags in those 57 Double-A games.  Prospector Ralph compares him to Alex Bregman in his top 50 2018 fantasy baseball prospects, who just stole 18 bases.   It’s almost like I’m looking at Senzel and wondering how he can fail and I can’t figure out a way.  Maybe injuries, I guess, and now I may as well call him, Jinxes Enzel.  For 2018, I’ll give Senzel the projections of 58/14/63/.271/10 in 378 ABs, but there’s plenty more here if he gets a shot on Opening Day.  I’m loving Andrew Seniorcircuitendi!  Yeah, still not working.

 
  1. M says:
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    Long shot but any chance Senzel gets to play 2B too?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I guess, depends on how the Reds move guys around… I’d suppose they move guys off 3rd for him, or just move him, they have flexibility for both…

  2. Spot on Grey! Scouts have given him a grade 60 on raw power. Here are two other recent call ups that were graded a 60 on raw power: Gary Sanchez and Rhys Hoskins. Please let the balls be juiced in 2018!!

    Senzel hits less fly balls than those guys but I like his ability to hit for a higher average and steal some bases. The Bregman comp is very good but I think Senzel could have more power.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Agreed, video I watched looked like he had solid power, but he prolly needs to use his bottom half more for that…

  3. Ralph Lifshitz

    Nick Senzel's Pops says:
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    I brought this up on the podcast the other day, but in this current environment if a prospect is a plus in batting average and steals, and has what we suspect to be 15-20 homer power, shouldn’t that be the perfect profile? Everyone with any semblance of power is hitting 20-25, so should we even worry about it? Doesn’t the batting average and steals raise their floor when you consider the way these balls are flying? If Senzel goes .280/20/20 at third he’s 100% owned in RCLs.

    Senzel will fail if his vertigo comes back. It actually ended his season. He hates Hitchcock now.

    • Tweak says:
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      @Nick Senzel’s Pops: The vertigo issue was one I was wondering about as well. It could be a temporary thing, but if it is bad enough (and if, hopefully, it doesn’t exist due to other underlying symptoms), it could have a serious impact on his play.

      Then again, if it does, he wouldn’t even have to spin on the dizzy bat in Rock n Jock baseball. Just make sure you run the bases backward! And don’t mess with Coach Kinison.

      Seriously, though. I hope that the pieces coming through Cincy’s system work out. I like a pile of their guys: Senzel, Winker, Trammell, Siri, Tyler Stephenson, Shed Long, Luis Castillo. Even Aquino could be good given some more time.

      • Guest says:
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        @Grey:

        I am @Tweak:

        He was diagnosed with benign positional vertigo. That means that when you suddenly change the position of your head the room starts spinning.

        This is usually caused by loose bodies floating around in your inner ear, that eventually get absorbed and the problem goes away. I had this off and on for a couple months, it is annoying but neither chronic nor really debilitating, though I can imagine it’s not fun while playing baseball.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Interesting, thanks for sharing!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Not sure why that would be the perfect profile vs. 35/10/.300 or 40/10/.280… Just not following, though I’m in the middle of my first cup of coffee, so this is prolly on me… Are you saying plus AVG is better than plus power b/c power’s all over?

      • J-FOH says:
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        @Grey: When I read Ralphs name I was sure he was referencing the hooker definition of “pops”

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          As in pimp?

          • J-FOH says:
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            @Grey: a pop is a reference to busting a nut

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Oh really? Never heard that before… You watch The Deuce?

              • J-FOH says:
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                @Grey: Nah, Im waiting for them to finish the season. Im all in on power watching.

                An old retired cop from the bar explained the hooker ads to us. Roses means money and pops mean busting nuts…the more you know

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Season’s over on The Deuce, only 8 eps… Roses means money to hookers talking to other hookers? Shouldn’t johns know what this stuff means? I mean, not that I’m a john, but if I were to be I’d have no idea what I was ordering…

                  • J-FOH says:
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                    @Grey: if you go on the backpage and look at the escorts it will say 150 roses, which means what it will cost. Damn, I know too much but when a retired cop tells you how the internet and hookers work you listen, because why wouldn’t you.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      I’m making mental notes (okay, written notes in my iPhone Notes app)…

                    • J-FOH says:
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                      its important in case you are writing a script and you want it authentic.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Exactly!

                    • J-FOH says:
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                      you better link this convo in case cougs finds your notes

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      I might erase this convo so it doesn’t lead to her searching Notes

      • Ralph Lifshitz

        Not Nick Senzel’s Hooker says:
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        @Grey: I guess what I’m trying to say is I’m less worried about a hit tool guy reaching his power ceiling, especially one with above average steal potential.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Better floor, you mean?

        • Dis_En_Franchised says:
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          @Not Nick Senzel’s Hooker: I took what you said to mean that these hit tool guys will still have significant power to go with their plus hit tools and speed.

          Ideally I think the 35-40/10 is more ideal because power = both runs and RBIs while average and speed is not guaranteed to equal the same value in runs and RBIs.

  4. The Situation says:
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    Hey @Grey: Just curious, how come no mention of Eloy or Gleyber yet? Is it because Eloy is potentially a little further away from getting his call and because you’re concerned about Gleyber’s injury recovery? Just expected to see posts on those guys sooner, so a little surprised neither has been mentioned yet.

    Thanks again for consistently putting out the best product on the interweb!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Thanks! As of now, I don’t plan on covering each. I’m looking at mostly guys that coul have major league impacts in 2018. They both feel like 2019 guys. I will consider Gleyber more for a possible post, but Eloy feels like a guy that might see 50-75 ABs in 2018 at best… Will consider tho…

  5. Another Dan says:
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    Excellent stuff Grey.

    Have both Senzel and Acuna in my H2H Dynasty (Thanks to Ralph). Am hoping they’ll both be relevant in 2018. Am excited already.

    In the same league, I have had a trade enquiry for Darvish. What are your thoughts on him ? Where does he land ? His last 10 starts have pretty much been a coin flip. Heads he gets rocked, Tails he’s ok. The other guy has Clevinger, Peacock and McCullers. I shouldn’t be considering it right ? Tell me Yu will be ok. For context my staff is not the best – Ray, Anderson, Morton, Happ, Montgomery. I have already traded Quintana away this off-season and the only real notable pitching prospect I have is Beuhler.

    WWGD ?

    Another Dan

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’d hold Yu if you’re saying he’s offering those three for him…

      • J-FOH says:
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        @Grey: I was looking at Yu’s career numbers and is 2013 the outlier?It’s the only year he has had a high strand rate and threw his slider 30% of the time. It also graded out at 27.7 that year, speaking of grades, this year it was highest its been since 2013. Shit his average fastball velocity is higher after TJ. Yeah he had a dip in K rate but I dont see any explanation why, well I could look longer but nothing jumps off the page. I may be out of touch but he is someone that may be a draft day bargain who is worth the gamble. If he ends up signing in the NL he could be a nice cheap get in terms of value

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I was saying this about his last playoff start, but outside of Springer nothing was really stung… the 1st inning looked like nerves, then some BABIP bad luck

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Which is to say, I agree… he doesn’t look as bad as his ERA and playoff performances say…

          • J-FOH says:
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            @Grey: He had one bad month (July 7.20 ERA in 30 innings) but in that month he had a 7 and 10 run game. So we deduct those for flukes. Of his games with 4 or more earned runs (excluding the 7 and 10) we only have one where the number of hits exceeded the number of runs. Walks wasn’t a big issues (2.80 rate) and the long ball (15th most, tied with 6 other qualified players) could be a problem but the long ball was lots of pitchers problems. There were only 117 players to hit 20 or more homers….hahahahahahaha….yeah the ball is sooooooooooooooo not juiced.

            We agree, so weird, and I think if I saw Carlos Martinez off the board and Yu still out there I would grab him and feel good about it.

            • Another Dan says:
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              @J-FOH:

              Thanks Both. Appreciate the valuable insight into him.

              I’ll hold him, especially since without him my staff looks much worse.

              Best wishes,

              Another Dan

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Yeah, agreed… What I think is the case is, Yu’s not as good as he once was, but that is a high standard, and he’s still better than a majority of pitchers…

              • J-FOH says:
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                @Grey: Yu might be right?

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  I may be crazy?

                  • J-FOH says:
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                    @Grey: Yu definitely crazy

                  • VinWins

                    VinWins says:
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                    @Grey: It just might be a lunatic he’s looking for.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Maybe a Yu-natic?

                    • J-FOH says:
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                      That may make us pontYUficators

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Get on your Yulpit!

                    • J-FOH says:
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                      I do need a place for my homYUly

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Haha, you just need to throw out his Yuly, he yelled.

  6. J-FOH says:
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    I posted in the McMahon post on accident. I started getting got up on Curb. I started season 6. I watched the first episode of the new season and it was great but going back to catch the seasons I missed has been fun

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Oh, I love Curb… Has he started calling people schmohawks yet?

      • J-FOH says:
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        @Grey: It started with him and Leon meeting

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yes! Leon! So effin funny

          • J-FOH says:
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            @Grey: The dry cleaner Yankee jersey had me dying

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Haha, nice! What’s not so nice, I saw Hamilton last night…

              • J-FOH says:
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                @Grey: and how was that? You can be honest here. There is no leftist guilt in the off season

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Little disappointing… I have a theory that a lot of the praise is coming from people who never listened to rap music… All of these white people thinking rap telling stories is revolutionary, bc they have never been exposed to it… It was a good Pete Rock album, basically…

                  • J-FOH says:
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                    @Grey: so a 6 maybe 7. I know nothing about it, have no intention of knowing about it and would prefer if we stop this here so as I don’t know any more than I already do

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Solid 7, was not a 10 like the ticket price or hype would indicate…

  7. Jose says:
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    I just heard Victor Robles was taken out of the game for non-injury reason after the first inning today.

    PLEASE tell me this is NOT – PED related. I am holding my breath.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Ugh

  8. The Sheik says:
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    Grey…time to drop Glasnow or hold? The other issue I have is closer with Giles. Any chance he figures it out or time to drop? LMK-Thanks

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Why are you dropping these guys now?

  9. The Sheik says:
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    @Grey: dynasty league. Off season never ends. I’m wondering if I told or cut ties. Mitch Keller would be my add.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’d hold

  10. J-FOH says:
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    I heard him use schmohawk!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Haha, awesome!

      • J-FOH says:
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        @Grey: it’s season 7 episode 1 towards the end of the episode.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Ah, nice

          • J-FOH says:
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            @Grey: we need to get he soundbite off that

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              I think we have one of our old school commentator’s daughters saying it in the glossary

              • J-FOH says:
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                @Grey: I think it was that fucktard Awesomeous Maximus

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Ah, yeah, he was a good guy

                  • J-FOH says:
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                    @Grey: I hate him. Some of us played, or at least tried to play with him in an off site league, Mauled by Pandas was there too. He “messed up the draft” and surprisingly only he was able to get discount prices on players in the auction. Then after about two weeks “other teams” gave up on the year and traded their super stars to him for “upside youth”. It was so strange, like he made up fake owners to stack his team. We never sent him a dime for the league. Actually you could probably blame me for running him off. Some of us went after him on the site then he disappeared. He was a POS, but sorry I ran him off, that wasnt my place.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Meh, he was fine to me, all water under the bridge at this point…

                    • J-FOH says:
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                      well everyone is good to you, except me, Im kinda a dick

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Nah you’re good too! Watching Tin Star finally… feels like Fargo, like you said…

                    • J-FOH says:
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                      That first episode a real kick in the nuts

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Not loving this show, what else you got?

                    • J-FOH says:
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                      just see it through, I watched the wire so you can watch this. It starts slowish but picks up a lot towards the end

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      The Wire is one of the greatest shows of all-time, this isn’t even the best show of the last two weeks

                    • J-FOH says:
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                      Get off my LAWN! with your alternative facts…BUPKIS!

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