Don’t want to this post to be 500 words long to get to the conclusion, “Meh, maybe, if Nate Pearson is healthy,” so, yes, he had elbow tightness, which is a concern, but he threw two innings in the playoffs — yes, two whole innings! — and his velocity was fine, so, yeah, I don’t know. My assumption with Pearson’s elbow health is multi-fold:  One-fold, if it’s not good, that sucks, but he will be shut down in March during Spring Training, and we’ll be able to drop him in redraft fantasy leagues without too much anguish, because the 2nd-fold says he should be cheap enough in drafts to acquire. There’s no three-fold. I.e., It’ll be easy enough to fold on Pearson. Hey, by the way, I’m typing this up in a laundromat, is it obvious? Okay, as B. Real once said, “How do ya know where you’re headed if you don’t know where ya been,” so here’s what I’ve said previously, “Let’s start with the drool. Here’s Nate Pearson:

Wipes sweat bead from forehead, takes a long drawn-out beat, then, “Damn.” Here’s what else he does to hitters:

Wanna know how good a guy is? Watch how hitters attack, or in this case, try to attack him. These two examples of Nate Pearson’s butter don’t even show his 99 MPH cheddar. That cheese, if you will, is the reason why these hitters are looking so bad. Imagine sitting on a 99 MPH fastball, then this filth is dropped into the zone. You can’t hit anything there without guessing. You sit dead-red heat on his fastball, one of the best in the minors, and he drops in an 86 MPH change or a slider or a curve. Batter, batter, can’t touch butter! You can hope he doesn’t locate on one of the pitches, but last year, across three levels of the minors ending in Triple-A, he had a 119/27 K/BB. Yes, that’s beautiful. I guess you can argue that minor leaguers aren’t waiting on a pitch like major leaguers, but have you seen strikeout rates recently in the majors? Pearson’s going to chew up hitters and spit them into a barrel and send that barrel over Niagara, saying, “Get the f*** out of Canada!” And that’s me quoting me quoting a guy going over Niagara in a barrel! Talk about a barrel rate, huh? So, what can we expect from Nate Pearson for 2021 fantasy baseball?

Nate Pearson’s 18 major league innings this year were ugly. Nothing much to take away from it other than a small sample, and his stuff still was nasty. Just not controlling it as he is wont to do. Giving up dingers like a glizzy dealer, and walking hitters like he’s a giant pair of New Balance. Take off the Keds, homeboy, and do business. That’s what we hired you for! (We didn’t hire him.) Again, it’s 18 innings across five games and means nothing. Don’t make we tell you about how awful Kershaw was in his first taste of the majors, while telling you that by saying I won’t tell you that. It’s just not worth it. Okay, one last point! Pearson’s first start was solid, so that means all that blech was in four games, which is super irrelevant. Throw out his 6.00 ERA and 6.5 BB/9. It’s nonsense. Every great prospect pitcher who debuted last year could be eclipsed by Pearson in 2021. All your excitement for Sixto Sanchez, Ian Anderson or any of them could be lapped with you lapping up that Nate stuff. But, in the end, it will come down to, “Meh, maybe, if Nate Pearson is healthy.” For 2021, I’ll give Nate Pearson projections of 5-6/4.27/1.24/109 in 102 IP with a chance for much more or less.

44 Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
LaRockakis
LaRockakis
1 year ago

Much more or much less.

V interesting. Hmmm. I’ll be pondering that until April.

Thanks, Grey!

Suicide Squeeze
Suicide Squeeze
1 year ago

I’m like Charlie Brown and pitching prospects are Lucy with the football. Every year I chase the prospect, hoping that I will get a good one, and every year I am disappointed. I am in a keeper league, so I get 3 years for something to pan out, but I still seem to…er…choose poorly. Sheffield, Whitley, Kopech, KcKenzie…are just some of the recent players I’ve targeted that don’t seem to actually become viable fast enough. Our league has a 5 player bench, so most teams add prospects to their roster even a year before they are expected to be called up. My choices are to lock in a 2022 call up in 2021 or lose out. Same goes for hitters as well. I currently have Kiriloff and Franco on roster. Is there a question in there? Yes, I want to know if Person would be worth the $10-$15 he will go for at auction this year. In other words will he be worth it in 2022 or worth 20-25 in 2023-2025 when I have to take his option. 12 team AL only.

Suicide Squeeze
Suicide Squeeze
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

We draft late, so I should know. thanks!

Jayj
Jayj
1 year ago

Thoughts on teejay antone. You drafting him?

Smitty
1 year ago

High on the big 6’6″ power pitcher pre-covid, he still carries that upside potential. Just might be lapping up that Nate stuff at the right price.

The Great Knoche
The Great Knoche
1 year ago

Going behind Brady Singer in early drafts…. Must not be that good.

Dave D
Dave D
1 year ago

Nice take. Seems pretty spot on, which is to say: Nate is a true wildcard. He could be a young Clemens or a Tod Van Poppel. Although, injury-wise, he seems Rich Hill-esque.

In any event, he seems worth a flyer to me at his current 238 ADP through the first 5 NFBC DC drafts, with a range of 222-262. I took both him and Gore in my first DC, but passed on Nate in my 2nd. I like Gore better overall, but it seems like Nate might have a shot at rotation out the gate.

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Here’s the latest and greatest from NFBC:

R21-12
11/12 11:07 AM
Hector NerisP
R21-11
11/12 10:47 AM
Carson KellyC
R21-10
11/12 10:41 AM
Daniel BardP
R21-9
11/12 10:41 AM
Alex KirilloffOF
R21-8
11/12 10:37 AM
Eduardo RodriguezDP
R21-7
11/12 10:36 AM
Bryan ReynoldsOF
R21-6
11/12 10:31 AM
Isiah Kiner-Falefa3B(A)
R21-5
11/12 10:31 AM
Justus SheffieldP
R21-4
11/12 10:26 AM
Wilmer Flores2B(A)
R21-3
11/12 10:26 AM
James PaxtonP(A)
R21-2
11/12 10:25 AM
Mitch HanigerUT
R21-1
11/12 10:07 AM
Sam HuffC
Round 20
R20-15
11/12 10:07 AM
Dylan CeaseP
R20-14
11/12 10:06 AM
Kevin PillarOF
R20-13
11/12 10:06 AM
C.J. Cron1B(A)
R20-12
11/12 9:06 AM
Robinson Cano2B
R20-11
11/12 9:03 AM
Jorge AlfaroC
R20-10
11/12 8:06 AM
Jake OdorizziP
R20-9
11/12 5:28 AM
Masahiro TanakaP
R20-8
11/12 1:18 AM
Willy AdamesSS
R20-7
11/12 1:13 AM
Cesar Hernandez2B(A)
R20-6
11/12 1:13 AM
Domingo GermanP(A)
R20-5
11/12 1:13 AM
Starlin Castro2B(A)
R20-4
11/12 1:13 AM
Brad KellerP(A)
R20-3
11/12 1:13 AM
Joey Wendle3B(A)
R20-2
11/12 1:13 AM
Austin SlaterOF(A)
R20-1
11/12 12:13 AM
Jeremy JeffressP(A)
Round 19
R19-15
11/12 12:13 AM
Stefan CrichtonP(A)
R19-14
11/11 11:13 PM
Kyle Seager3B
R19-13
11/11 11:06 PM
Ty France2B
R19-12
11/11 11:04 PM
Aaron HicksOF
R19-11
11/11 11:01 PM
Kole CalhounOF
R19-10
11/11 10:45 PM
Ryan YarbroughP
R19-9
11/11 10:45 PM
Brandon NimmoOF
R19-8
11/11 10:44 PM
David DahlOF(A)
R19-7
11/11 10:44 PM
Sean ManaeaP
R19-6
11/11 10:16 PM
Matthew BoydP
R19-5
11/12 9:03 AM
Ryan JeffersC
R19-4
11/11 9:46 PM
Mark CanhaOF(A)
R19-3
11/11 9:46 PM
Scott KingeryOF(A)
R19-2
11/11 9:46 PM
Elieser HernandezP
R19-1
11/11 9:39 PM
Mitch KellerP
Round 18
R18-15
11/11 9:39 PM
Rowdy Tellez1B
R18-14
11/11 9:18 PM
Taijuan WalkerP
R18-13
11/11 9:16 PM
Shohei OhtaniUT
R18-12
11/11 9:14 PM
AJ PollockOF
R18-11
11/11 9:12 PM
Ryan McMahon3B
R18-10
11/11 9:02 PM
Will SmithP
R18-9
11/11 8:56 PM
Yuli Gurriel1B
R18-8
11/11 8:51 PM
David PeraltaOF
R18-7
11/11 8:50 PM
Tommy La Stella2B
R18-6
11/11 8:39 PM
Renato Nunez1B
R18-5
11/11 8:23 PM
Mitch GarverC
R18-4
11/11 8:22 PM
Daniel HudsonP
R18-3
11/11 8:18 PM
Dane DunningP
R18-2
11/11 8:18 PM
Luis SeverinoP
R18-1
11/11 7:57 PM
Caleb SmithP
Round 17
R17-15
11/11 7:57 PM
Manuel MargotOF
R17-14
11/11 7:52 PM
Garrett Hampson2B
R17-13
11/11 7:44 PM
Austin Riley3B
R17-12
11/11 7:25 PM
Marcus StromanP
R17-11
11/11 7:20 PM
Lorenzo CainOF
R17-10
11/11 7:19 PM
Craig KimbrelP(A)
R17-9
11/11 7:19 PM
Andrew Vaughn1B
R17-8
11/11 6:49 PM
Corey KluberP(A)
R17-7
11/11 6:49 PM
Giovanny GallegosP
R17-6
11/11 6:41 PM
Mark MelanconP
R17-5
11/11 6:38 PM
Nate PearsonP
R17-4
11/11 6:35 PM
Richard RodriguezP
R17-3
11/11 6:31 PM
Michael KopechP
R17-2
11/11 6:30 PM
Yasiel PuigUT
R17-1
11/11 6:16 PM
John MeansP
Round 16

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

That means Auto pick.

Yeah, I’m looking at a rotation of:

Lance Lynn
Jesus Luzardo
Marco Gonzales
Zach Davies
MacKenzie Gore
Michael Pineda
Taijuan Walker
Elieser Hernandez

It’s been tricky for me because I got some crazy values in my first DC. All my SP’s went later by a round or two in that one. I’ll pull out the stops for some sleeper arms (I hope!) for depth…

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Thanks! I feel like although it’s not a very “exciting” staff up front, guys like Marco, Davies, Pineda, Walker will all likely go deep into games and get me W’s and K’s. Not a flashy bunch but the nuts and bolts are there.

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Yeah, me too. He went crazy early in one league… I think 84, but this one I shoulda grabbed him. He went like 230. Good value.

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Yeah, 1st team was:

Lamet
Framber
Luzardo
May
Gore
Pearson
Walker
Elisier
Odorizzi
Sheffield
Fleming
Lucchesi

1st one maybe more upside, more depth, more risk. 2nd is definitely “safer” on surface at least.

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Prett much! I’m happy with both so far. I’m determined to do well this year. Last year sucked. I don’t expect to fare as well in the Razz DC’s. That’ll be tough!!!

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Cool, that’d be great! Sounds like a good plan.

Are you planning on the two-hour?

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Dave D
1 year ago

We did 4-hour because 2-hour and 1-hours were new, but I think 4-hour is unnessary. There is a sleep period each night from 11pm Pacific to 5am . I think people will greatly prefer 2-hour. The 4-hour would be pretty tedious given the overnight breaks.

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Dave D
1 year ago

My current draft is a 1-hour and we’re averaging about 4 to 5 rounds daily. a 2-hour would be 3-4 rounds daily I imagine. A 4-hour would be 2 rounds daily.

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Yeah, sounds like a good plan.

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Dave D
1 year ago

Offense is this so far:

C Daulton Varsho
1B Jose Abreu
2B
SS Fernando Tatis Jr.
3B Manny Machado
CI Anthony Rizzo
MI Didi Gregorius

OF Randy Arozarena
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
Mike Yastrzemski
Yasiel Puig
Kevin Pillar
UT Mitch Haniger

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Thanks. I probably should have taken Paxton over Haniger. It was basically a coin flip.

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

I just drafted one of your big 2019 sleeper picks. Guess who?:

ound 23
R23-4
11/12 2:23 PM
Elvis AndrusSS
R23-3
11/12 2:22 PM
Raimel TapiaOF
R23-2
11/12 2:22 PM
Tyler StephensonC
R23-1
11/12 2:16 PM
Drew PomeranzP
Round 22
R22-15
11/12 2:16 PM
Jo AdellOF
R22-14
11/12 2:14 PM
Cedric MullinsOF
R22-13
11/12 2:14 PM
Alejandro KirkC
R22-12
11/12 2:10 PM
Casey MizeP
R22-11
11/12 2:04 PM
Vidal Brujan2B
R22-10
11/12 1:32 PM
Avisail GarciaOF
R22-9
11/12 1:30 PM
Maikel Franco3B
R22-8
11/12 1:28 PM
Jesus Aguilar1B
R22-7
11/12 1:08 PM
Brandon KintzlerP
R22-6
11/12 1:08 PM
Deivi GarciaP
R22-5
11/12 12:49 PM
Griffin CanningP
R22-4
11/12 12:45 PM
Danny JansenC
R22-3
11/12 12:44 PM
Seth LugoP
R22-2
11/12 12:44 PM
Robbie RayP
R22-1
11/12 11:56 AM
Adam DuvallOF
Round 21
R21-15
11/12 11:55 AM
Tarik SkubalP
R21-14
11/12 11:53 AM
Yadier MolinaC
R21-13
11/12 11:39 AM
Max StassiC

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Ha! I imagine on Duvall.

I’m talking C. Mullins, not C. Mullin. I like the guy finally. May lead off too.

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Totally. O’s have tons of great value up and down whole roster. Gold mine… wait… maybe more a silver mine.