Don’t want to this post to be 500 words long to get to the conclusion, “Meh, maybe, if Nate Pearson is healthy,” so, yes, he had elbow tightness, which is a concern, but he threw two innings in the playoffs — yes, two whole innings! — and his velocity was fine, so, yeah, I don’t know. My assumption with Pearson’s elbow health is multi-fold:  One-fold, if it’s not good, that sucks, but he will be shut down in March during Spring Training, and we’ll be able to drop him in redraft fantasy leagues without too much anguish, because the 2nd-fold says he should be cheap enough in drafts to acquire. There’s no three-fold. I.e., It’ll be easy enough to fold on Pearson. Hey, by the way, I’m typing this up in a laundromat, is it obvious? Okay, as B. Real once said, “How do ya know where you’re headed if you don’t know where ya been,” so here’s what I’ve said previously, “Let’s start with the drool. Here’s Nate Pearson:

Wipes sweat bead from forehead, takes a long drawn-out beat, then, “Damn.” Here’s what else he does to hitters:

Wanna know how good a guy is? Watch how hitters attack, or in this case, try to attack him. These two examples of Nate Pearson’s butter don’t even show his 99 MPH cheddar. That cheese, if you will, is the reason why these hitters are looking so bad. Imagine sitting on a 99 MPH fastball, then this filth is dropped into the zone. You can’t hit anything there without guessing. You sit dead-red heat on his fastball, one of the best in the minors, and he drops in an 86 MPH change or a slider or a curve. Batter, batter, can’t touch butter! You can hope he doesn’t locate on one of the pitches, but last year, across three levels of the minors ending in Triple-A, he had a 119/27 K/BB. Yes, that’s beautiful. I guess you can argue that minor leaguers aren’t waiting on a pitch like major leaguers, but have you seen strikeout rates recently in the majors? Pearson’s going to chew up hitters and spit them into a barrel and send that barrel over Niagara, saying, “Get the f*** out of Canada!” And that’s me quoting me quoting a guy going over Niagara in a barrel! Talk about a barrel rate, huh? So, what can we expect from Nate Pearson for 2021 fantasy baseball?

Nate Pearson’s 18 major league innings this year were ugly. Nothing much to take away from it other than a small sample, and his stuff still was nasty. Just not controlling it as he is wont to do. Giving up dingers like a glizzy dealer, and walking hitters like he’s a giant pair of New Balance. Take off the Keds, homeboy, and do business. That’s what we hired you for! (We didn’t hire him.) Again, it’s 18 innings across five games and means nothing. Don’t make we tell you about how awful Kershaw was in his first taste of the majors, while telling you that by saying I won’t tell you that. It’s just not worth it. Okay, one last point! Pearson’s first start was solid, so that means all that blech was in four games, which is super irrelevant. Throw out his 6.00 ERA and 6.5 BB/9. It’s nonsense. Every great prospect pitcher who debuted last year could be eclipsed by Pearson in 2021. All your excitement for Sixto Sanchez, Ian Anderson or any of them could be lapped with you lapping up that Nate stuff. But, in the end, it will come down to, “Meh, maybe, if Nate Pearson is healthy.” For 2021, I’ll give Nate Pearson projections of 5-6/4.27/1.24/109 in 102 IP with a chance for much more or less.

 
  1. Dave D says:
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    Nice take. Seems pretty spot on, which is to say: Nate is a true wildcard. He could be a young Clemens or a Tod Van Poppel. Although, injury-wise, he seems Rich Hill-esque.

    In any event, he seems worth a flyer to me at his current 238 ADP through the first 5 NFBC DC drafts, with a range of 222-262. I took both him and Gore in my first DC, but passed on Nate in my 2nd. I like Gore better overall, but it seems like Nate might have a shot at rotation out the gate.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Stay away from the blisters, Pearson! I like Gore better overall bc there’s no shine off him yet, but Pearson could be great in 2021, as you said a true wild card…Could be a top 25 SP or not pitch one IP in the majors this year

      • Dave D says:
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        Here’s the latest and greatest from NFBC:

        R21-12
        11/12 11:07 AM
        Hector NerisP
        R21-11
        11/12 10:47 AM
        Carson KellyC
        R21-10
        11/12 10:41 AM
        Daniel BardP
        R21-9
        11/12 10:41 AM
        Alex KirilloffOF
        R21-8
        11/12 10:37 AM
        Eduardo RodriguezDP
        R21-7
        11/12 10:36 AM
        Bryan ReynoldsOF
        R21-6
        11/12 10:31 AM
        Isiah Kiner-Falefa3B(A)
        R21-5
        11/12 10:31 AM
        Justus SheffieldP
        R21-4
        11/12 10:26 AM
        Wilmer Flores2B(A)
        R21-3
        11/12 10:26 AM
        James PaxtonP(A)
        R21-2
        11/12 10:25 AM
        Mitch HanigerUT
        R21-1
        11/12 10:07 AM
        Sam HuffC
        Round 20
        R20-15
        11/12 10:07 AM
        Dylan CeaseP
        R20-14
        11/12 10:06 AM
        Kevin PillarOF
        R20-13
        11/12 10:06 AM
        C.J. Cron1B(A)
        R20-12
        11/12 9:06 AM
        Robinson Cano2B
        R20-11
        11/12 9:03 AM
        Jorge AlfaroC
        R20-10
        11/12 8:06 AM
        Jake OdorizziP
        R20-9
        11/12 5:28 AM
        Masahiro TanakaP
        R20-8
        11/12 1:18 AM
        Willy AdamesSS
        R20-7
        11/12 1:13 AM
        Cesar Hernandez2B(A)
        R20-6
        11/12 1:13 AM
        Domingo GermanP(A)
        R20-5
        11/12 1:13 AM
        Starlin Castro2B(A)
        R20-4
        11/12 1:13 AM
        Brad KellerP(A)
        R20-3
        11/12 1:13 AM
        Joey Wendle3B(A)
        R20-2
        11/12 1:13 AM
        Austin SlaterOF(A)
        R20-1
        11/12 12:13 AM
        Jeremy JeffressP(A)
        Round 19
        R19-15
        11/12 12:13 AM
        Stefan CrichtonP(A)
        R19-14
        11/11 11:13 PM
        Kyle Seager3B
        R19-13
        11/11 11:06 PM
        Ty France2B
        R19-12
        11/11 11:04 PM
        Aaron HicksOF
        R19-11
        11/11 11:01 PM
        Kole CalhounOF
        R19-10
        11/11 10:45 PM
        Ryan YarbroughP
        R19-9
        11/11 10:45 PM
        Brandon NimmoOF
        R19-8
        11/11 10:44 PM
        David DahlOF(A)
        R19-7
        11/11 10:44 PM
        Sean ManaeaP
        R19-6
        11/11 10:16 PM
        Matthew BoydP
        R19-5
        11/12 9:03 AM
        Ryan JeffersC
        R19-4
        11/11 9:46 PM
        Mark CanhaOF(A)
        R19-3
        11/11 9:46 PM
        Scott KingeryOF(A)
        R19-2
        11/11 9:46 PM
        Elieser HernandezP
        R19-1
        11/11 9:39 PM
        Mitch KellerP
        Round 18
        R18-15
        11/11 9:39 PM
        Rowdy Tellez1B
        R18-14
        11/11 9:18 PM
        Taijuan WalkerP
        R18-13
        11/11 9:16 PM
        Shohei OhtaniUT
        R18-12
        11/11 9:14 PM
        AJ PollockOF
        R18-11
        11/11 9:12 PM
        Ryan McMahon3B
        R18-10
        11/11 9:02 PM
        Will SmithP
        R18-9
        11/11 8:56 PM
        Yuli Gurriel1B
        R18-8
        11/11 8:51 PM
        David PeraltaOF
        R18-7
        11/11 8:50 PM
        Tommy La Stella2B
        R18-6
        11/11 8:39 PM
        Renato Nunez1B
        R18-5
        11/11 8:23 PM
        Mitch GarverC
        R18-4
        11/11 8:22 PM
        Daniel HudsonP
        R18-3
        11/11 8:18 PM
        Dane DunningP
        R18-2
        11/11 8:18 PM
        Luis SeverinoP
        R18-1
        11/11 7:57 PM
        Caleb SmithP
        Round 17
        R17-15
        11/11 7:57 PM
        Manuel MargotOF
        R17-14
        11/11 7:52 PM
        Garrett Hampson2B
        R17-13
        11/11 7:44 PM
        Austin Riley3B
        R17-12
        11/11 7:25 PM
        Marcus StromanP
        R17-11
        11/11 7:20 PM
        Lorenzo CainOF
        R17-10
        11/11 7:19 PM
        Craig KimbrelP(A)
        R17-9
        11/11 7:19 PM
        Andrew Vaughn1B
        R17-8
        11/11 6:49 PM
        Corey KluberP(A)
        R17-7
        11/11 6:49 PM
        Giovanny GallegosP
        R17-6
        11/11 6:41 PM
        Mark MelanconP
        R17-5
        11/11 6:38 PM
        Nate PearsonP
        R17-4
        11/11 6:35 PM
        Richard RodriguezP
        R17-3
        11/11 6:31 PM
        Michael KopechP
        R17-2
        11/11 6:30 PM
        Yasiel PuigUT
        R17-1
        11/11 6:16 PM
        John MeansP
        Round 16

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Are the ones with (A)s?

          Wait, that doesn’t make sense because Puig’s there…

          I love Stroman again, damn his price is great…I also can’t believe a lot of these pitcher values…Caleb Smith is free, okay…Pearson is free…I’d even take a free Means, and Manaea is free…Crazy!

          • Dave D says:
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            That means Auto pick.

            Yeah, I’m looking at a rotation of:

            Lance Lynn
            Jesus Luzardo
            Marco Gonzales
            Zach Davies
            MacKenzie Gore
            Michael Pineda
            Taijuan Walker
            Elieser Hernandez

            It’s been tricky for me because I got some crazy values in my first DC. All my SP’s went later by a round or two in that one. I’ll pull out the stops for some sleeper arms (I hope!) for depth…

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              I like this staff, think I like it better than your last, if I remember correctly…You played it safer here and I think that’s smart in a no waiver league

              • Dave D says:
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                Thanks! I feel like although it’s not a very “exciting” staff up front, guys like Marco, Davies, Pineda, Walker will all likely go deep into games and get me W’s and K’s. Not a flashy bunch but the nuts and bolts are there.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Yeah, I like nuts and bolts in those leagues…Especially later on…Chris Bassitt is the type of guy I like in DCs

                  • Dave D says:
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                    Yeah, me too. He went crazy early in one league… I think 84, but this one I shoulda grabbed him. He went like 230. Good value.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      230?! Wow — that’s a huge disparity of ADP

              • Dave D says:
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                Yeah, 1st team was:

                Lamet
                Framber
                Luzardo
                May
                Gore
                Pearson
                Walker
                Elisier
                Odorizzi
                Sheffield
                Fleming
                Lucchesi

                1st one maybe more upside, more depth, more risk. 2nd is definitely “safer” on surface at least.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Yeah, like 2nd one better, and I think I like 2nd hitting team better…That and 75 cents doesn’t get you a cup of coffee…

                  • Dave D says:
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                    Prett much! I’m happy with both so far. I’m determined to do well this year. Last year sucked. I don’t expect to fare as well in the Razz DC’s. That’ll be tough!!!

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      I reached out to Donkey, he’s in, maybe I’ll start filling them next week so we can draft over Thanksgiving

                  • Dave D says:
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                    Cool, that’d be great! Sounds like a good plan.

                    Are you planning on the two-hour?

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Is that what we usually do? Or four hour?

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Is there a 4-hour?

                    • Dave D says:
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                      We did 4-hour because 2-hour and 1-hours were new, but I think 4-hour is unnessary. There is a sleep period each night from 11pm Pacific to 5am . I think people will greatly prefer 2-hour. The 4-hour would be pretty tedious given the overnight breaks.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      2 hours seems fine, yeah

                • Dave D says:
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                  My current draft is a 1-hour and we’re averaging about 4 to 5 rounds daily. a 2-hour would be 3-4 rounds daily I imagine. A 4-hour would be 2 rounds daily.

                  • Grey

                    Grey says:
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                    Makes sense, no real rush, but more importantly, 4 hour is like watching paint dry

                    • Dave D says:
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                      Yeah, sounds like a good plan.

        • Dave D says:
          (link)

          Offense is this so far:

          C Daulton Varsho
          1B Jose Abreu
          2B
          SS Fernando Tatis Jr.
          3B Manny Machado
          CI Anthony Rizzo
          MI Didi Gregorius

          OF Randy Arozarena
          Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
          Mike Yastrzemski
          Yasiel Puig
          Kevin Pillar
          UT Mitch Haniger

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            Haniger is so whatever, but outside of him, I love this offense…If Puig signs this hitting is going to be so stacked — Your infield is insane

            • Dave D says:
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              Thanks. I probably should have taken Paxton over Haniger. It was basically a coin flip.

              • Grey

                Grey says:
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                Yeah, would’ve preferred Paxton, but not a big deal

                • Dave D says:
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                  I just drafted one of your big 2019 sleeper picks. Guess who?:

                  ound 23
                  R23-4
                  11/12 2:23 PM
                  Elvis AndrusSS
                  R23-3
                  11/12 2:22 PM
                  Raimel TapiaOF
                  R23-2
                  11/12 2:22 PM
                  Tyler StephensonC
                  R23-1
                  11/12 2:16 PM
                  Drew PomeranzP
                  Round 22
                  R22-15
                  11/12 2:16 PM
                  Jo AdellOF
                  R22-14
                  11/12 2:14 PM
                  Cedric MullinsOF
                  R22-13
                  11/12 2:14 PM
                  Alejandro KirkC
                  R22-12
                  11/12 2:10 PM
                  Casey MizeP
                  R22-11
                  11/12 2:04 PM
                  Vidal Brujan2B
                  R22-10
                  11/12 1:32 PM
                  Avisail GarciaOF
                  R22-9
                  11/12 1:30 PM
                  Maikel Franco3B
                  R22-8
                  11/12 1:28 PM
                  Jesus Aguilar1B
                  R22-7
                  11/12 1:08 PM
                  Brandon KintzlerP
                  R22-6
                  11/12 1:08 PM
                  Deivi GarciaP
                  R22-5
                  11/12 12:49 PM
                  Griffin CanningP
                  R22-4
                  11/12 12:45 PM
                  Danny JansenC
                  R22-3
                  11/12 12:44 PM
                  Seth LugoP
                  R22-2
                  11/12 12:44 PM
                  Robbie RayP
                  R22-1
                  11/12 11:56 AM
                  Adam DuvallOF
                  Round 21
                  R21-15
                  11/12 11:55 AM
                  Tarik SkubalP
                  R21-14
                  11/12 11:53 AM
                  Yadier MolinaC
                  R21-13
                  11/12 11:39 AM
                  Max StassiC

                  • Grey

                    Grey says:
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                    Canning? Lugo? Jansen? Ray? Lots of decent values here too…Pretty funny how no one still wants Adam Duvall…That price ain’t bad for him either

                    • Dave D says:
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                      Ha! I imagine on Duvall.

                      I’m talking C. Mullins, not C. Mullin. I like the guy finally. May lead off too.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Mullins isn’t a bad flyer, great thing with the O’s is they give opps

                    • Dave D says:
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                      Totally. O’s have tons of great value up and down whole roster. Gold mine… wait… maybe more a silver mine.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Ya know who I love? Santander

  2. The Great Knoche says:
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    Going behind Brady Singer in early drafts…. Must not be that good.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      You don’t like Brady Singer? He’s got so many catchy bars

  3. Smitty says:
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    High on the big 6’6″ power pitcher pre-covid, he still carries that upside potential. Just might be lapping up that Nate stuff at the right price.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yeah, I could see it, since he’ll be pretty much free, but I also half expect him to get shut down in the spring

  4. Jayj says:
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    Thoughts on teejay antone. You drafting him?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I’d draft him very late and will go over him at some point…I don’t think he was as good as he showed in 2020 tho

  5. Suicide Squeeze says:
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    I’m like Charlie Brown and pitching prospects are Lucy with the football. Every year I chase the prospect, hoping that I will get a good one, and every year I am disappointed. I am in a keeper league, so I get 3 years for something to pan out, but I still seem to…er…choose poorly. Sheffield, Whitley, Kopech, KcKenzie…are just some of the recent players I’ve targeted that don’t seem to actually become viable fast enough. Our league has a 5 player bench, so most teams add prospects to their roster even a year before they are expected to be called up. My choices are to lock in a 2022 call up in 2021 or lose out. Same goes for hitters as well. I currently have Kiriloff and Franco on roster. Is there a question in there? Yes, I want to know if Person would be worth the $10-$15 he will go for at auction this year. In other words will he be worth it in 2022 or worth 20-25 in 2023-2025 when I have to take his option. 12 team AL only.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I think Pearson will be worth it, assuming his injury is behind him…That we might not know until March

      • Suicide Squeeze says:
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        We draft late, so I should know. thanks!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          No problem

  6. LaRockakis says:
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    Much more or much less.

    V interesting. Hmmm. I’ll be pondering that until April.

    Thanks, Grey!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Haha, No problem

Comments are closed.