I don’t like writing sleeper posts about the same guy more than once in a three-year period. If I wrote a Maikel Garcia sleeper last year, I would not be here today, no matter how much I liked him, and I do like him. Have to admit to making sure I didn’t write a Maikel Garcia sleeper post last year, and I don’t think so, but Google sucks now, so you have to excuse me if I missed it. I do remember him being a popular sleeper pick. People talk about how if he hits leadoff, then he’s going to excel. Wha’ happened? Why were people so wrong? Did they just not have their Big Brains functioning at 100% capacity? Well, here’s the thing, and this might have you dropping your mouth and going all slack-jawed, so please swallow your saliva before continuing on, Maikel Garcia did hit leadoff for 107 games and 431 ABs. Welp! He hit leadoff and it wasn’t good, that sucks, clearly. Not a great thing, in general. [holds finger to earbud] Hold on, I’m being told there’s another, “Well, here’s the thing.” Well, Here’s The Thing, Part 2: There’s Another Thing, Maikel Garcia was the 8th best 2nd baseman last year on the Player Rater, and 116th overall, but is being drafted as the 216th best overall and around the 16th best 2nd baseman. Welp! I don’t know what you people are doing. Yes, you people! Also, I know he had bone spurs removed from his elbow this offseason, but that sounds super minor and, if anything, could lead to him being an even bigger sleeper. Also, Also: Also Also! The trade of Jonathan India makes me think people are discounting Maikel Garcia even further. Why? Literally have no idea. India’s hitting leadoff? Is he though? Maybe, but I don’t think we should just assume it, and that doesn’t stop Maikel Garcia from having value. So, what can we expect from Maikel Garcia for 2025 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
PSYCHE! My 2025 fantasy baseball rankings are all on Patreon. Don’t wait for the rankings to come out next month. Anyway II, Maikel Garcia sleeper:
Post-hype is funny. I can’t say I fully understand why a guy falls after seemingly having a solid year, after being hyped. I don’t think it’s always the same reason. Maybe we can figure out why it happened to Maikel Garcia. Maikel Garcia went 7/37/.231 last year. Average is a little iffy, but we’ll get to that. The power and speed drives fantasy and 7/37 drives me to the bank to say Maikel Garcia is money. He was caught stealing twice in 39 attempts (hence, 37). He turns 25 in March. He’s not going to suddenly become a 10-steal guy. He’s a 25-steal guy, easily. I’ve mentioned the Pitch Clock 12 before. It means with the Pitch Clock a guy can add 12 steals to his totals if he just wants to run more. Italics for emphasis, not to signal to you that Random Italicized Voice is whispering shizz. I spell out the PC12 here because I do think there’s a caveat. If a guy is very fast, he can add 20+ bags if he wants. So, Maikel Garcia could be a 25-steal guy or a 45-steal guy? Well, you don’t steal 37 bags accidentally, but he doesn’t grade out as “fast.” Spending time here because steals are a big part of his fantasy. All things considered, I think Maikel is a 25-steal, plus the PC12.
About that average. Maikel Garcia had a 16.5 K% and .268 BABIP. Not sure he’s a .340 BABIP guy because, even if his speed is better-than-average, his contact is weak-ish sauce. Not awful. But not elite. Here’s a pretty picture:
The Barrel% is silly awful, and his walk rate is kinda funny. Second part first, he doesn’t walk, but he also doesn’t swing. He was the 11th least likely to swing at a ball. Top 10 are names you’d expect to see there. Top three were Judge, India and Soto. Furthermore, Maikel was the 3rd best for contact on strikes behind Kwan and Betts. Surprised Maikel Garcia even strikes out as much as he does. Guy knows the strike zone well. Sounds like someone you want leading off, but India is good too; I get it, but sometimes managers like an in-house guy who was there, which makes it Maikel’s job. Either way, it’s not clear, and India might leadoff in April, struggle and Maikel gets the job. As they say, it’s fluid.
So, with terrible Barrel% and good contact, you’d think he made a lot of terrible contact, but as the Hard Hit% above indicates, he doesn’t. He had the same amount of bad contact as Vlad Jr. and Bryce Harper. Maikel’s big issue is he grounds out a lot. It’s not the death knell for a guy. He grounds out as much as Jazz and Chourio. Those guys do hit it harder though on average. Overall, I think Maikel Garcia is a .310 BABIP guy, which boosts his average to .255, neutrally. That’s huge. If he’s taking pitches, hitting ~.260, leading off 30-50% of the time, and stealing bags without being caught, then, I don’t see how he can’t be at least as good as he was last year, and likely much better. For 2025, I’ll give Maikel Garcia projections of 71/6/64/.266/34 in 567 ABs with a chance for more.
