Welcome back stitch-heads. Yes, I just coined that term for baseball enthusiasts, and yes, it slaps. Baseball has a shovel full of dirt ready to throw on the corpse of the 2022-23 NFL season as the Superbowl gives its final hoot. Free agents have (mostly) signed, baseballs have been juiced or deadened (Manfredo ain’t telling which), and pitchers and catchers are preparing to report, with the lazier position players just after. Byron Buxton isn’t even injured yet! Joining us to kick the rust off with the first round are RazzBallers BDon and Coolwhip. We’ll wet your beak for baseball with a new range every week using NFBC ADP. This week we’re focussed on picks 1-12.
Q. Who’s your favorite newcomer to the first round?
‘Whip: JRod is the most intriguing for sure, first round I’m always looking for 5-tool talent to start off my drafts.
BDon: My favorite newcomer is probably everybody’s favorite newcomer, Julio Rodríguez. To be fair (insert Letterkenny GIF), there’s only a few new faces in the first this year. JRod’s 28 HRs, 25 SBs, .284/.345/.509 in his first major league action coming straight up from AA. He was 14th in hard hit rate, 21st in average exit velocity, 24th in barrel rate, and 15th in sprint speed. Don’t overthink this one!
My take: It’s the odd year that we have two sophomore newcomers in Rodriguez and Bobby Witt, Jr. While the Mariners wunderkind is the deservedly preferred option, I want to point out a higher steals potential and position eligibility for Witt.
Q. Would you rather have Ohtani or Judge (assume Ohtani is one player for hitting/pitching)?
‘Whip: Haha, well, I’m nothing if not on brand. Absolutely Ohtani. Last year was a miracle year for Judge, and although I think he’s excellent and all that, I’m not banking on a repeat. I’ll take the flexibility of power and speed plus top-tier pitching.
BDon: Ohtani. It’s an easy decision in any kind of daily format where you can swap him in on his pitching days. By the way, random fun fact, if you played Ohtani as a hitter rather than a pitcher on his days on the mound, you would’ve gotten, 2 HR, 2 SB, 10 R, 15 RBI. Aaron Judge was amazing last year, absolutely. The best fantasy season by Rudy’s Player Rater in the last 5 years. Ohtani has the 24th and 53rd over that 5 year span in the last 2 seasons, as a hitter only. Have to go back to 2017 for the last time Judge was inside the top 100 of that list (his previous career-high HR/SB season). Judge had also never stolen double-digit bases before last year.
My take: It’s kind of unfair to comp Ohtani to anyone due to the pitching side. It’s also unfair to everyone who doesn’t get to roster him. That says everything you need to know. As BDon pointed out, Judge will be hard-pressed to repeat steals with his size and profile.
Q. What do you prioritize the most in the first round: elite steals or elite home runs?
‘Whip: I guess this is sort of a tricky question, as I indicated above… yes. Lol. I’m looking for both, and if the player leans one direction I adjust my draft strategy to compensate for the other. I usually have contingencies going in for both power/speed.
BDon: Well, if the Ohtani rant didn’t give this one away yet, I’ll take elite steals. The top home run players are turning over each season. What if I had said Vlad shouldn’t go until after the 20th pick last year? Or that Juan Soto shouldn’t go until post pick 75? People would’ve said I was crazy (editors note: BDon is but for other reasons). When value is almost entirely made up of HRs, batting average, runs, and RBI, those fluctuate, and seemingly, even more so with the differences in baseballs we’ve seen season to season recently. Last year, names from Aaron Judge to Rowdy Tellez were going far below their eventual power value. Point being, you can get a homerun leader at various points in the draft, and these are not guys that are surprising to be on that list. We’re not talking about rookie breakouts. These are established guys. Getting speed that doesn’t come at the cost of batting average or a good spot in the lineup is tough the longer you wait.
My take: Again, point to BDon. Whip’ is right that you want both but there are only a few names with that kind of potential. The elite speedsters that contribute in other categories give the better base to build from. You don’t want to be adding Myles Straw to your queue at any point if you can help it.
It looks like BDon has taken this one. Whip’ will be forced to watch every Angels game in its entirety as punishment. Tune in next week as we bite off another chunk of ADP.
