For the uninitiated, a Three True Outcome (TTO) player is one that walks, Ks or homers. That’s it. A famous example of this is Adam Dunn aka The Big Donkey. The Three True Outcome label works for baseball. Real baseball, that is. It doesn’t encapsulate everything for fantasy. That’s where the Donkey label comes in. A Donkey is player that Ks, homers and steals. Big Donkey once stole 19 bases, and perennially stole more than seven bases a year, until he became more Big than Donkey. Mini Donkey, Mark Reynolds, had himself a nice little run for a few years, once stealing 24 bases. Mini Mini Donkey, Ian Stewart, failed to live up to his Donkey expectations. Perhaps the Donkey expectations are what ended up dragging him down, I don’t know, I’m not a psychologist in matters of the donkey. So, hopefully, when we call Joey Gallo, Donkey Dong Jr., we are not putting unrealistic expectations on him. Shame to think Donkey expectations were what did in any player when Donkey expectations mean no harm. Donkey expectations just want a roof over its head, a hot meal and foot rub from a topless dame. Last year, Gallo hit six homers and stole three bases in only 108 at-bats for the Rangers while hitting 14 homers in 53 Triple-A games. Am I reluctantly failing to mention his Ks? If they were as bad as Gallo’s, you’d be reluctant too. Anyway, what can we expect of Joey Gallo for 2016 fantasy baseball?
Here’s what I said last year regarding Joey Gallo, “I get the sneaking suspicion that Gallo is going to be The Return of the Sucky Average Lagoon Monster, who was played briefly in an off-Broadway revival by Chris Carter. In Double-A last year, Gallo had a 39.5% strikeout rate. That’s absurd. That’s the same rate historians have said Babe Ruth had after an all-night bender with Fatty Arbuckle when Ruth showed up and accidentally went up to bat still wearing his sleep mask. Fun fact! Sleep masks for the wealthy used to be made from raw hamburger patties. So, with Gallo wearing a raw hamburger on his eyes, is there any chance here of him hitting above .200? Not if he can’t tame his strikeouts.” And that’s me quoting me! This past year, he hit .204 in 108 major league at-bats. Yeah, Gallo’s got some issues. This past year in Triple-A, his strikeout percentage was 39.5%. That’s not a typo. He struck out in Triple-A this year at the same rate he struck out in Double-A in 2014. This year in Triple-A, he hit .195. Something’s gotta change here or he’s not going to make it past being a platoon player in the major leagues. Can it change? Can any one of us truly change? Okay, too deep. Can Gallo change? I think he can, or at least stop swinging at the change. He’s only going to be 22 years old this year. He learns to spit on just one pitch and he hits 40 homers with a .250 average in the majors. Seriously, he’s that close to a huge breakout. Though, another guy I mentioned in this post, Chris Carter is that close too and he hit just .199 last year. Gallo will be nothing but a very deep flyer going into this year, but has 40-homer power, so a flyer with some definite upside. For 2016, I’ll give him the projections of 47/22/52/.210/5 in 350 ABs and, like that girl who practices yoga in your office break room, will be hot for stretches.