It’s quite possible that Jacoby Ellsbury can provide more first round value than most any other player selected, especially if he goes late in the first.

I have been a huge Ellsbury supporter for some time, ranking him seventh before his disastrous 2010 campaign. I truly believed Ellsbury had elite talent and could improve upon his power. Of course, 2010 was a complete waste.

Then in 2011, no matter what format you played in, Ellsbury was a top performer (#2 on ESPN’s player rater, for what it’s worth). Depending on Ryan Braun’s suspension, I have Ellsbury 6th or 7th.  Fleaflicker has him 7th overall.

Grey has him at 12 in his top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball, which is a travesty. Outside of Matt Kemp, Justin Upton and Troy Tulowitzki, Ellsbury is the only surefire five category contributor. The only thing players like Fielder, Votto and Adrian Gonzalez have over Ellsbury is they will hit 10-15 more HRs and knock in 30 more runs. Ellsbury will pace them by a bunch of runs, out-steal them likes he’s the Hamburglar and they’re Grimace and bat for a better average. By my count, he wins 3 categories, while the slow lumbering 1Bs win two. Thanks to Sesame Street and the Count, I know 3 is greater than 2.

Let’s address the  hesitancy surrounding Ellsbury, i.e., his power. His .230 ISO last year was leaps and bounds better than anything he ever did at any level (presumably since little league).

Will he hit 30+ HRs again in 2012?

No, I don’t think so (obviously it’s possible, but not overly plausible). Still, scouts have believed Ellsbury could settle into the high teens/low 20s in terms of HR output and that seems logical. I’ll pencil him in for 20 HRs.

So he needs to make up the value for a loss of 12 HRs. He’ll do so by getting on base consistently, to the tune of a .320 average and .370 OBP. With that, he’s a lock to score 100+ runs. Furthermore, in a potent Red Sox line-up, 75 RBIs seem to be a given, with significant upside there as well.

And with all that getting on base comes steals. In his last three full seasons, he has stolen 50, 70 and 39 bases. I think 40 is by far the low watermark, with 45-50 being a reasonable expectation. Again, he has upside.

There are very few first round picks with upside. Ellsbury has that. If I’m picking in drafts, I want to be later in the first round to secure Ellsbury and grab a slugger when it comes back to me. That’s a winning formula.

In short:

You want Ellsbury on your team, you need Ellsbury on your team. We use words like BABIP, FIP, RBI. We use these words as the backbone of a life spent on fantasy baseball…

Ellsbury is a few good men, um, man– Well, you get the idea.

110 Comments
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KyleJo
10 years ago

ha wrong post

KyleJo
10 years ago

How does Corey Hart not make the top 100, yet you are obsessed with Jay Bruce? The difference between the two is what, Hart’s higher ISO’s the last two years, or is it Hart’s higher batting average?

Swaggerjackers
Swaggerjackers
10 years ago

Albert Lang for Prez

Albert Lang
Reply to  Swaggerjackers
10 years ago

@Swaggerjackers, Man, I dont think that would be a good idea :-).

My unique blend of conservatism and liberalism would result in some asinine policies…although it’d be cool to meet some of the sports teams, not the New York Giants though (i’m a bitter eagles fan).

If you want to start a PAC though, I’ll consider it!

The Talented Mr. Dope man
The Talented Mr. Dope man
10 years ago

Jesus, haters really “came outta the closet” on this one… But I guess I’d everyone agreed on this shizz it would make for some boring ass drafts.

Albert Lang
Reply to  The Talented Mr. Dope man
10 years ago

@The Talented Mr. Dope man, Just some good friendly debate, I muddied the waters a tad by jumping from thread to thread.

But yeah, grey and i didnt think this column was as interesting as this! I gotta figure out what i did and channel it into other writing!

Skeptic
Skeptic
10 years ago

Where’s ells rank in a tb/r/RBI/k/obp/slg/avg/sbnet format? Great thread!

TheNewGuy
TheNewGuy
10 years ago

Wow busy thread tonight! Nice post on Ellsbury, makes me think differently about him now, will definately consider taking him if the times right.

On a totally unrelated matter, just been offered Mike Minor for Aroyds Vizcaino (both on minor league teams) in my keeper league. I’ve been after Minor for a while and whist Arodys has a good arm, I can’t see him holding down a valueable position with the Braves. Can you see him being anything else than a 7th inning guy in the next few years? That staff is young and nasty. Whereas I think Minor can breakout this year…like the deal?

TheNewGuy
TheNewGuy
Reply to  Albert Lang
10 years ago

@Albert Lang, Thanks its already done anyway, glad you approve of it. I guess the only way it could blow up in my face is if Arodys gets traded! That way he’d have an avenue to a rotation spot. As it is am I right in thinking Minor should be nailed on to the 5th rotation spot providing a non-disastrous spring? Kids got very good K numbers whereever he’s been, and so should be a nice player long term. And there’s Delgado around too, no way can I see Arodys starting for the Braves, and they’re well stacked in the pen with Kimb and JV.

TheNewGuy
TheNewGuy
Reply to  Albert Lang
10 years ago

@Albert Lang, Sounds good. Noone seems to ever talk about him (at least outside of Braves fans) but I think he could be a very valuable keeper in my format, and a valuable fantasy player with his Ks. I can promote him this year for $0 and then keep him for $4 (1yr) $6 (2yrs) or $8(3yrs) next year. I like the sound of that!

Wake Up
10 years ago

How can you say that 24 players hit 30+ HRs, only 20 with 30+ SBs, and then say that you are not saying that HRs and SBs are equal? What is your point then, comparing the two?

Wake Up
Reply to  Albert Lang
10 years ago

@Albert Lang, On Power, yes, but only if you take some. 18 HRs doesn’t seem too exciting, from Ellsbury. Also, 70 RBI isn’t much of a contribution. So, he seems like more of a 3 cat. guy that won’t hurt you in two. Not to mention, he wasn’t that good at stealing bases last year either. 24 NSB.
I’m not saying that he’s crap. But, you’re going to have to take him in the first round, and I’d rather not go OF in the 1st and if I have to, it won’t be him.
I’ve enjoyed this back and forth, best of luck to you this season.

doghat
doghat
10 years ago

Could you rank these for this year, 5×5 roto:
Trayvon Robinson
Erik Bedard
Jake Peavy
Danny Valencia

doghat
doghat
10 years ago

Thanks Albert, to do that I would have to give up Goldschmidt and still end up with Valencia. That seems worse to me.

doghat
doghat
10 years ago

Sorry, this is easier to follow:
A
Cory Luebke
Doug Fister
Joe Nathan

B
Cory Luebke
JJ Putz
Danny Valencia

C
Joe Nathan
JJ Putz
Danny Valencia

doghat
doghat
10 years ago

5×5 roto, 12 team, 1 C, 4 OF, I UI, 1 DH, 5SP, 3RP, 1P. Keep 15, roster 32

My 15 are:
C Jarrod Saltalamacchia
1B Joey Votto
UI Paul Goldschmidt
DH Prince Fielder
2B Ian Kinsler
SS Jhonny Peralta
OF BJ Upton
OF Mike Morse
OF Bryce Harper
SP Cliff Lee
SP Yu Darvish
SP Anibal Sanchez
Plus one of these three groups

A B C
Cory Luebke Cory Luebke Joe Nathan
Doug Fister JJ Putz JJ Putz
Joe Nathan Danny Valencia Danny Valencia

Which would you choose?

Anthony
Anthony
10 years ago

Hey – Does anyone know when yahoo will be open ???

Giant JJ
Giant JJ
10 years ago

Albert, where would you draft Ellsbury? I have the 5th pick. I was thinking about Tulo there but…

Swaggerjackers
Swaggerjackers
Reply to  Albert Lang
10 years ago

@Albert Lang, Come on now Albert Lang, Tulo doesn’t steal nearly as many bases as Ells!

Albert Lang
Reply to  Swaggerjackers
10 years ago

@Swaggerjackers, Ok- he does almost everything Ells does, but as a SS….:-)

Cheeeeeeze
Cheeeeeeze
10 years ago

Do you really beleive that ellsburry wins in average category against votto? If anything they’re the same… but i’d give votto the edge since he has a career average 10 points better then ellsburry. and fielder and a-gonz aren’t far off.. throw a little luck in there and they’ll have a better avg. season then ellsburry 4 out of 10 seasons. I don[‘t think that’s enough to pick a speed guy like ells over the homeruns and rbi’s that an elite 1B can bring in.

Cheeeeeeze
Cheeeeeeze
Reply to  Albert Lang
10 years ago

@Albert Lang, I’d disagree… yea Ells did have a great year last year. and if it was so cut and dry as to look at last years stats for predicting next years then fantasy wouldn’t be so fun… votto has hovered around 30 homers for the past 4 years and has 119 career homers. Ells has 1 season over 10 homers. his last two full season he hit 8 and 9 homers then busted out last year with 32… but has 52 career homers. Sure Jacoby had 46 doubles last year but his other 2 full seasons he only had about 25. Votto over the past 4 years has had around 40 doubles and 30 homeruns… its consistancy like that that makes him a 1st round power threat. The inconsistancy and the nature of only having one great season like this makes it very hard for me to put him as a top 10 going into next year. If you draft him at #7, you’ll be paying for the best year of his career.

Cheeeeeeze
Cheeeeeeze
Reply to  Albert Lang
10 years ago

@Albert Lang, I’d take 80% of his power and 8times the steals as more valuable too… just can’t come to an agreement that that is what will happen. Maybe after another big power season i’ll be on board… until then I’ll take votto’s power and power upside combined with his 10-15 steals and consistency in the first round…

Cheeeeeeze
Cheeeeeeze
Reply to  Albert Lang
10 years ago

@Albert Lang, if only both our names were dalton we could be the duelin daltons…. I will point out that votta had 16 bags in 2010 and did get 17 and 24 sb’s in his last two years in the minors…

JoeC
JoeC
Reply to  Albert Lang
10 years ago

@Albert Lang, I think everyone, except maybe you, was surprised that Ellsbury hit 32 home runs last year and drove in 105 Runs. Not tryin’ to bag on you here, but I think most people saw Ells as a speedster and did not have an inkling that Hank Aaron was hiding in that skinny body.

chata
chata
10 years ago

@ Albert :

if they just let Ellsbury do his thing , and quit worrying about
Carl Crawford and trying to justify THAT contract , i’d pencil him in
for 61 SB’s .

seems like a nice round number .

Alcesto
Alcesto
10 years ago

Ellsbury? More like Smellsbury!

RandomItalicizedVoice
RandomItalicizedVoice
Reply to  Alcesto
10 years ago

@Alcesto, fail.

The Talented Mr. Dope Man
The Talented Mr. Dope Man
Reply to  RandomItalicizedVoice
10 years ago

@RandomItalicizedVoice, i 2nd the fail.

Alcesto
Alcesto
Reply to  The Talented Mr. Dope Man
10 years ago

@The Talented Mr. Dope Man, Oh where would the poor Razzball commentors be without you two and your poignant observations and your rapier-like wit. Not to mention your obviously well-developed senses of humor.

The Talented Mr. Dope man
The Talented Mr. Dope man
Reply to  Alcesto
10 years ago

@Alcesto, Ha I was just kiddin bro! All in good fun

Oregon Nut Cups
Oregon Nut Cups
10 years ago

He’s 28 years old and just had the best season of his career. I see how you can say he’s beating out the sluggers with higher overall production, but I’d argue that you can make up for those 45-50 projected steals alot easier than you can make up for getting a ‘take it to the bank’ 30HR bat in the early rounds. Compare your projected stats to Carl Crawford’s 2010. Granted he finished in the top 20, but he was not a first rounder from those stats and definitely not in the top 6 or 7. If you’re projecting a similar line to that, how can we be taking him in the top 12? BTW, just took a look at ESPN’s rankings in March of 2011…they had Crawford 4th :)

Give me HRs early, give me steals late.

Oregon Nut Cups
Oregon Nut Cups
Reply to  Albert Lang
10 years ago

@Albert Lang, the speed game has been increasing over the last couple of years. The big lug bat is becoming the rarity while speed has crept back into the game via alot more gams than was previously there. This is where my philosophy stems from. Steals are nice, but they are not required from your first round.

Coco Crisp had 49 SB last year, he’s going in the 13th
Brett Gardner had 49 while Maybin had 40 and they’re going in the 8th (not interested in any of these plays, BTW, just citing examples)

I’m ok taking late round fliers on speed over all like a Ben Revere (19th).

I’m not saying Ellsbury won’t hit 30 HRs, your projections are, hence my statement about Crawford and why we give that 45 to 50 steals too much merit, in my opinion :)

JoeC
JoeC
Reply to  Albert Lang
10 years ago

@Albert Lang, My personal belief is that speed guys are more fragile than the big boppers. I have nothing but anecdotal evidence to back this up, so I don’t expect to convert anyone. But it makes sense from a body type perspective, as most basestealers are slighter guys.

Also, basestealing itself is a rough job, with injuries liable to occur at so many points in the process: hammys and quads when launching, fingers and ankles when sliding, collisions with infielders trying to tag you. I would rather choose a guy in the first round who is going to do most of his running 90 feet at a time (or 360 feet, when he hits home runs).

It’s just a personal philosophy and I don’t begrudge you your choice. But for me, like ONC, it’s power, power, power early.

JoeC
JoeC
Reply to  Albert Lang
10 years ago

@Albert Lang, It’s all conjecture and I never said it was anything else. I have neither the means nor the time to study the history of basestealers vs. power hitters and the relative stability of their respective performances over time. My “sense”, and this is from watching baseball and playing fantasy baseball for years, is that guys who steal 30+ bases do so less consistently over time than guys who hit 30+ home runs.

Stealing bases, in effect, is a young man’s game because it’s so hard on the body, much harder than hitting a home run (except for freaks of nature like Rickey Henderson).

With Ellsbury’s improved power game, I think he’ll feel less compulsion to steal anywhere near 70 bases ever again. I would expect to see totals more in the low 30’s from now on (and that may be necessitated anyways by his lower steal percentage last season when he was caught 15 times vs. 39 successful attempts).

He’s still a good player, no doubt about it. But I think he’ll be more of a 20HR/80RBI/100R/35SB guy from here on out, with at-bat totals that will be in the 500’s instead of 600’s. Absolutely nothing to sneeze at, but like I said before, I prefer the big lugs in the early rounds and look to get speed later like NutCups does.

JoeC
JoeC
Reply to  Albert Lang
10 years ago

@Albert Lang, Whoa, whoa, whoa there, partner… that sounds very close to saying that we shouldn’t share our opinions on this site unless they’re backed up by a seal of certification from the Southern Flordia Institute of Fantasy Baseball Research.

It could also be interpreted as “don’t share your opinion unless you agree with me”. Not exactly the attitude that Razzball is known for.

We’re projecting the future performance of an athlete. If you have a foolproof way to do that, then you will make a lot of money. Until then, I think it’s more of an art than a science. We all do our best to see into the future, but we’re all half-blind and stumbling.

My main point about Ellsbury not stealing as much anymore had less to do with his age than the theory that he doesn’t HAVE to steal anymore because he’s providing value to the team in other ways (through his increased power). A guy like Michael Bourn, on the other hand, MUST steal because that’s about all he does for his team.

But yes, it’s just a theory and we shall see how it pans out going forward. But I think it’s a bit out of the spirit of Razzball to say “keep your theories to yourself”.

JoeC
JoeC
Reply to  Albert Lang
10 years ago

@Albert Lang, That was precisely my point: Bourn has to steal because that’s all he does. If he didn’t steal bases, he wouldn’t have a job.

Ellsbury is no longer in that category (I would argue that he was before 2011) and now he can provide value through his power alone (with a couple dozen steals thrown in on the side, of course).

Main takeaway: I would never expect to see him steal 70 bases again and I think even 50 would be a stretch.

Why put out a theory that’s not supported by facts? Well geez, Albert, why talk about anything at all? Why speculate about alien life, for example, even if we have no examples of alien life?! Why did anybody think about sailing to the Indies to the West instead of just using the usual route around the horn of Africa?

C’mon, man… we’re all just trading theories here. Fact is, you have precious little “facts” to support your 2012 Ellsbury projection besides “he did it before”. That’s what almost of projections consist of “well, he did this in the past, therefore he’ll probably do that again”. Past is prologue.

Fact: Ellsbury never did anything like his 2011 season before in his career.

Fact: People will start to believe Ellsbury’s 2011 of talent if he repeats it in 2012.

JoeC
JoeC
Reply to  Albert Lang
10 years ago

@Albert Lang, Yes, I regularly get into speculative conversations because they’re interesting and allow me to be exposed to new ideas and to achieve a new perspective on old ideas. I am sorry you don’t.

As for facts, what facts are you citing for your belief that Ellsbury will steal 45-50 bases in 2012? He only stole 39 last year, so an increase of 10 to 20 percent in perfomance is a fairly significant uptick. What iron-clad fact gives you such certainty?

Neither of us knows how many bases Ellsbury will steal this year. Myself, I’m going to put my faith in regression to the mean and assume that his OBP falls, his at-bats fall and he gets on base less, thus providing him with less steal opportunities. I also speculate that he won’t be compelled to steal as much as he has in the past due to his increased power, thus reducing his NEED to steal (in order to provide value to the team).

At least my theory is somewhat supported by facts as Ellsbury stole only 14 of his 39 bases in the last 3 months of the season of 2011. In those same 3 months, he hit 23 of his 32 homers.

JoeC
JoeC
Reply to  Albert Lang
10 years ago

@Albert Lang, Except that’s not what I did. I didn’t ask an open-ended question and not attempt to answer it. I attempted to answer with a theory.

A theory is an assumption that does not rely on facts. Theories come before facts. One cannot prove every theory because A) not all theories are true and B) no one has that amount of time. Basically what you’re saying is that you’re uninterested in theories, you’re only interested in facts, even though the whole point of your article is your THEORY of how Ellsbury is going to perform in 2012.

My initial theory was that guys who steal regularly are of slighter build than guys who regularly hit home runs. I’m pretty sure this theory is true, but I do not have a FanGraphs chart that will prove this to you.

I further speculated that guys who steal for a living are more prone to injury because stealing a base is a more physically-trying act than hitting in general (and home runs in particular). I speculated that players who hit home runs were more likely to maintain their home runs totals over time as compared to basestealers their steals totals over time.

Since you wanted some facts to back up that theory (because in your world, theories are not enough), I looked at the 2010 and 2011 seasons and found these facts:

In 2010 there were 35 players who stole 20 bases or more.
In 2011 there were 50 players who stole 20 bases or more.

Of the 35 players who stole 20 bases or more in 2010, 19 of them also stole 20 or more bases in 2011 (54%).

In 2010 there were 77 players who hit 20 or more home runs.
In 2011 there were 68 players who hit 20 or more home runs.

Of the 68 players who hit 20 or more home runs in 2010, 40 of them also hit 20 or more home runs in 2011 (59%).

Well now. Isn’t that odd? The numbers correspond to my theory. Of course you will scream “small sample size”, so I will attempt to expand this study further out to see if the correlations found are steady over more seasons. Still, it’s interesting that the first set of data conforms with my theory (though of course it does not PROVE my theory… that would require a much more rigorous scientific study).

JoeC
JoeC
Reply to  Albert Lang
10 years ago

@Albert Lang, So the argument we’re having here is whether or not Ellsbury is deserving of a first round pick. I don’t think he is, because his main value is through the stolen bases he provides and I don’t think basestealers are as likely to maintain their steal totals season-to-season as home run hitters are (for the myriad of reasons I’ve elaborated on in this discussion).

So you wanted some “facts”, so I did the hard work of pullin’ out the spreadsheet and giving you some facts that actually supported my theory. But now those facts aren’t good enough? A 5% difference is not that much of a difference? What exactly is the threshold that would impress you? A 50% difference?

If this 5% advantage for power hitters repeating their totals is found in other seasons, does my theory gain more strength or is it all meaningless because it goes against your side of the argument?

Stealing a base is a more physical act than hitting because there is a collision every time you steal a base, whether with the ground, the base or the defender (and often all three).

Do I also need a spreadsheet to prove that pitching is a more physical act than hitting? :D

JoeC
JoeC
Reply to  Albert Lang
10 years ago

@Albert Lang, no worries, man. It’s very difficult to argue with more than one person at a time. :)

I don’t mean to bash your analysis of Ellsbury in any way (although I will say his walk rate actually DECLINED last season!). We simply disagree about drafting strategy and that’s as common as sand grains on the beach.

Personally, I’ve always liked Ellsbury as well, but I like to think the world would be slightly less interesting without contrarians like myself. :D

Good luck and thanks for the article and the healthy debate.

WallyCleaver
WallyCleaver
Reply to  Albert Lang
10 years ago

@Albert Lang, Wow. Sounds like I want Ellsbury for his power and any SBs he gets is a bonus. A guy like him gets 30 Sbs without even trying. I wouldn’t take him until near the end of the first round though

Oregon Nut Cups
Oregon Nut Cups
Reply to  Albert Lang
10 years ago

@Albert Lang, First off, what’s with all these thread jackers!!! :)) I keed.

Secondly, I agree the guys I listed weren’t cheap but what I meant to point out was where they went the year before in drafts. Maybin and Coco were late round fliers. Gardner probably went earliest between those three and that’s only because of NYY recognition. Emilio Bonifacio got 40 SBs and played multiple thin positions and was not drafted for the most part. Its my opinion there will be just as many ‘surprise’ SB guys available late enough that I can’t justify taking a guy in the first round based on 50 SB potential. For example, Rajai Davis could very easily find himself plenty of PT this year with how questionable Toronto’s CF/LF situation is right now. If he hits and they don’t, he sticks and he’s off to the races. With that, I’ll simply pad out my stats with high end HR guys early and draft speed late.

Of course, I’m splitting hairs as I do believe he’ll be valuable this year, just not 1st round valuable whether its the 6th or 7th pick or the 12th. In Grey’s rankings, I’d put him closer to Carlos Gonzalez/Andrew McCutchen.

WallyCleaver
WallyCleaver
Reply to  Albert Lang
10 years ago

@Albert Lang, A big difference between Ellsbury and The Pirate is lineup. Cargo is in a decent lineup but talk about a guy who can’t stay healthy…

Wake Up
Reply to  Oregon Nut Cups
10 years ago

@Oregon Nut Cups, I 2nd. He was top 5 in 2009? Where do you have Bourne?

Wake Up
Reply to  Albert Lang
10 years ago

@Albert Lang, So, you are drafting Bourn in the 3rd round? You are too focused on last year. How many of those top 24 HR hitters did you have to take early? How many of the top 20 SB guys did you have to take early?
30 SB = 30 SB
30 HR = 30 HR, 30 R, 30 RBI

Wake Up
Reply to  Albert Lang
10 years ago

@Albert Lang, Did you know that Bourn hit .265 with 38 RBI in 2010?
Once again you are focused on last season by saying he is a 5 cat. guy. He has hit double digit HRs once. He has hit more than 60 RBIs once. As JoeC said, he only had a net 24 SBs last year.
It seems like you are trying to argue that SB are = to HR by comparing and contrasting the two, rarity wise.
I’d love to see the team you draft, if you are planning on going
Ellsbury
player X
Bourn

CT Old School
CT Old School
10 years ago

I can get Fielder, Votto or Gonzalez in the first and grab Dee Gordon much later (SAGNOF). Or I can take Ellsbury and Hardy (who has a similar ADP as Gordon). The combined projections of Gonzalez & Gordon are pretty close to Ellsbury & Hardy, but the downside risk of the latter combo not reaching expectations is far greater. And pairing Votto or Fielder with Gordon comes out even better. Late first round, sure, I’ll take Ellsbury, but I’d rather grab HRs in bunches while I can.

CT Old School
CT Old School
Reply to  Albert Lang
10 years ago

@Albert Lang, Not a ton of reliable steals?!! Blasphemy!!! We’ll have to agree to disagree. I’m with Grey: power early, speed late.

CT Old School
CT Old School
Reply to  Albert Lang
10 years ago

@Albert Lang, Mock Draft Central’s players around 250 are Lorenzo Cain, Rajai Davis, Bourgeous, Michael Brantley and Tabata. Power guys in the same range are Mayberry, Dunn and Duda.

CT Old School
CT Old School
Reply to  Albert Lang
10 years ago

@Albert Lang, Borbon…touche.

Old Rungo
Old Rungo
Reply to  Albert Lang
10 years ago

@Albert Lang, I think Angel Pagan is a fairly reliable source of steals late on the board here (Grey’s 261) with the ability to potentially throw in a couple homers. Revere isn’t bad, Torres might have a turn around after last year.

Albert Lang
Reply to  Old Rungo
10 years ago

@Old Rungo, Pagan….touche as he is one of my sleepers this year. I love Pagan this season and he is very cheap. I also think he can add a bit of pop and be an Ellsbury-lite.

I worry about Revere getting on base and think Torres is mostly done. But, very good points!

Old Rungo
Old Rungo
Reply to  Albert
10 years ago

@Albert, So you noticed that with each name I threw out I grew a little less confident…. I’m in your boat though on Pagan- especially with OF being so thin this year.

Albert Lang
Reply to  Old Rungo
10 years ago

@Old Rungo, Not just you – me as well. I think that while there are a lot of cheap speed options, the numbers of them that actually come through are small.

Pagan is different in my mind as he shouldnt be cheap (but that’s just splitting hairs). I’m a huge pagan supporter and will own him everywhere, I imagine!

chata
chata
10 years ago

@ Albert :
i’m on board with the love for Ellsbury , and have been from the start .
and , not just because i’ve enjoyed your last couple of pod-casts .

though my card collection precedes this by almost a decade (ok , maybe
more than a decade) , my favorite card , clemente rookie not withstanding , might be from 1972 Topps .

Card # 67 Strikeout Leaders
features :
N.L. leader Steve Carlton …. 310 K’s
and ,
A.L. leader Nolan Ryan …. 329 K’s

on the back :
nearest competitors are : Lolich (250) , Seaver (249) , Gaylord Perry (234)

am guessing that we’ll never again see a tandem to rival Carlton/Ryan .

The Talented Mr. Dope Man
The Talented Mr. Dope Man
Reply to  Albert Lang
10 years ago

@Albert Lang, what is this podcast chata speaks of???

Brian
Brian
10 years ago

I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain myself to fantasy experts who rise and sleep under the performance Jacoby provided them last year, and then question the manner in which he provided it. I would rather you just said thank you, and went on with your draft.

The Talented Mr. Dope Man
The Talented Mr. Dope Man
Reply to  Albert Lang
10 years ago

@Albert Lang, ha WTF… take your pills today Brian? haha jk

Big Magoo
Big Magoo
10 years ago

Nice post, Albert. I’m usually risk-averse in the first few rounds (like The Talented Mr. Dope Man), but Ellsbury’s an elite all-around talent and I’m on board. I’m sure the info’s available somewhere (fangraphs maybe?), but having watched most of the Sox games last year, most of his hrs were not of the wall-scraping variety. I think he goes 25-40 and the counting stats will be there hitting in that lineup. He’s battling it out with Votto for the #6 spot on my board.

Pucker
Pucker
Reply to  Albert Lang
10 years ago

@Albert Lang, Ah, yes, the birthplace of River Phoenix. You’d be even more impressed with Jacoby if you knew what a crappy town Madras was/is.

The Talented Mr. Dope Man
The Talented Mr. Dope Man
10 years ago

nice post brotha, but I’m scared of Ellsbury (and Kemp for that matter). To me the first few rounds MUST be spent on guaranteed players. Taking a shot on a guy who hasn’t performed on that level for multiple levels is a HUGE risk, and could turn your team to the Titanic.

Upside is for later rounds, just my opinion. I’m out on Ellsbury and Kemp this year.

The Talented Mr. Dope Man
The Talented Mr. Dope Man
Reply to  The Talented Mr. Dope Man
10 years ago

@The Talented Mr. Dope Man, multiple years*… Sorry