Oh, I absolutely wanted to give up on Jack Leiter. [snapping my fingers and shaking my tailfeather] What have you done for me lately, boy? What have you done lately for me? Nothing? Then I must ask you to leave. Goodbye. That’s how I felt, when I looked at his name. Just his name, by the way. That was the reaction he elicited from me. I feel like you get one year of struggling, then by the 2nd year you need to show something. What is “showing something” is the question, because there’s different levels of showing something, right? Here’s one guy’s stats:
Player A:
1st year: 32 IP, 5.63 ERA — meh, just a rookie doing stuff. Can’t expect much else there.
2nd year: 149 1/3 IP, 4.34 ERA. That’s a lot of innings. That’s showing something, isn’t it? That’s basically who he is, no? You need more? Okay, will give more in a second.
Player B:
1st year: 35 2/3 IP, 8.83 ERA — woof, my man. Are you trying to give us a heart attack? That’s awful, but fine, he was a rookie. What else you got?
2nd year: 151 2/3 IP, 3.86 ERA — Okay, that seems better than Player A. I’d like to know more, but it looks promising.
Player A, more because you asked for it: 2nd year, 9.9 K/9. 2.8 BB/9, 2.1 HR/9, 25.7% chase rate, lots of meh, but there was talk this guy would be solid.
Player B, more: 2nd year, 8.8 K.9, 4 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9, 26.8% chase rate, which is a little bit better than Player A, but the walks are concerning.
All right, who’s Player A and B? Clearly, Leiter is one of them. The command might’ve gave that away. Yes, Player B is Jack Leiter. Player A is Tarik Skubal. [staggering around, clutching heart] Player A is WHO?! [falls into a rose bush and doesn’t even feel the thorns piercing the skin] I can no longer feel things this has shook me to my core. So, what can we expect from Tarik Skubal–Wait, sorry. So, what can we expect from Jack Leiter for 2026 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
Psyche! All of my 2026 fantasy baseball rankings are on the Patreon. Don’t wait for the rankings to come out later this month. Anyway II, the Jack Leiter sleeper:
I am not trying to put “Now become Tarik Skubal” on Jack Leiter, but Leiter was highly touted and is only 187 1/3 IP into his career. Fantasy baseballers love to give up on a guy before he breaks out. ACKSUALLY, this is what they love to do: Get incredibly overhyped for their rookie year that is almost always a mess and not indicative of anything, then tentatively get back in on a guy in his 2nd year, have him succeed relatively, but then they get out before the third year because the 2nd year still wasn’t an ace-like year. Hate to tell you, Tarik Skubal’s third year wasn’t an ace year either. He went 3.52 ERA, 9 K/9, 2.5 BB/9 in 117 2/3 IP. It really is an unfair comparison (which is why I keep making it) because Skubal had great command, Leiter’s is lacking. How’sever, his stuff is still ridonk.
Jack Leiter’s four-seamer was thrown 38.8% of the time and it elicited a .189 BAA. Stammer, yum, stammer. That’s actually how I originally came to this post. I was looking for the top 20 pitches in baseball for K% from starters (a guy needed to throw it in 250 plate appearances to remove relievers). Since you’re wondering, Framber’s curve had a 44.6 K%. That was the best. Chris Sale’s slider, Skubal’s change then Cris Sanchez’s change. Not going to go through all them, but if you have a top 20 pitch, you really need to have three other pitches, which are hideous, to be useless. Jack Leiter’s four seamer is 20th best pitch in baseball for K% (25.7). So, does he have three more hideous pitches? His slider elicited a .239 BAA in 23.3% of the time and his change, which he threw 16.5% of the time, sorted by K%:
That was knocking the qualifiers down a lot to 100 plate appearances. Below Leiter are guys like Devin Williams, Tommy Kahnle and Edwin Uceta. Guys who are not starters. So, maybe it’s not so crazy to compare him to Tarik Skubal since he shows up in multiple lists with him for best pitches. Leiter does need to command his pitches better, which is why he’s a sleeper, and currently being drafted around the last round in 12-teamers (around 275 overall), and an absolute bargain. None of this even mentioned he’s in one of the best stadiums for pitching. Well, except this one non-mention. For 2026, I’ll give Jack Leiter projections 9-10/3.71/1.26/164 in 161 IP with a chance for much more.
I won’t mention that you say rankings aren’t out until next month.
Haha, oops…Well, some technically!
big Leiter believer, will be snagging him everywhere,
Nice!
I thought player A was going to be 2019 Corbin Burnes. Similar trajectory.
Yeah, agreed!