It is time for one of our favorite traditions here with hitter profiles as we debate early season performance and identify some buy or sell candidates at current ownership rates. This week, we will dig through a few of the leaderboards trying to find players with hot starts and figure out if we have struck gold or are simply fools in waiting. With all of the injuries so far this season, owners are rushing to fill lineup holes and anybody that is off to a hot start may seem like a lineup mainstay when they should really be trade bait. Last season, we had a Matt Chapman return to glory only to scuttle for much of the year. On the flip side, James Outman was able to sustain the results all season providing a huge lift for fantasy owners that jumped on the train early. Let’s dive into three intriguing players as we close out the first month of the 2024 fantasy baseball season.
Edward Olivares
Coming over to the Pittsburgh Pirates this offseason after years of trying to find his place with the Royals, Olivares is getting a chance to play. In 17 games this season, Olivares has hit .241 with three homers including this bomb in his first at-bat with the Pirates:
Edward Olivares homers in his first at-bat with the Buccos. pic.twitter.com/JhMwOQOs8I
— Pittsburgh Pirates (@Pirates) March 28, 2024
Digging in, there are a lot of metrics pointing towards continuing production such as a top five percentile xBA sitting at .359 with a 50% barrel rate and .407 wOBA. Those are healthy metrics compared to what he has been able to do throughout his career. So far in 2024, Edward has made a noticeable shift towards a more pull friendly plate approach with a 52% pull rate which is nine points higher than his career average. Even with those impressive metrics, there are a few signs that this start is merely some friendly results of a hot hand. His plate approach has not changed compared to prior seasons resulting in walk and strikeout rates right in line with his career norms. He also has seen a lower hard hit rate so far this season with more infield flies than typical for his approach. Olivares’ good contact this season has been really good, but that is where the excitement ends. He will continue to be serviceable, but the verdict is in for a sell where you have a buyer.
Verdict: Sell
Ryan O’Hearn
Speaking of players who have spent time in Kansas City, Ryan O’Hearn is working to make the most out of his second season in Baltimore. Let’s get the obvious out of the way first, O’Hearn is a clear strong side platoon bat resulting in only 19 games of results this season. That said, those results are well worth writing home about. A .295 average, four homers, and combined 20 runs and those batted in are a great start for the 30-year old first basemen that has also been getting a few reps in the outfield. Where things continue to get interesting for O’Hearn is how strong his underlying metrics have been. Take a look for yourself:
Leading the league in xwOBA and sitting in the top 10% of the majority of hitting metrics has to be a mirage, right? Not so fast. O’Hearn has always hit the ball hard, but there is a noticeable shift this season resulting in a much different result at the plate. This season, he has doubled his walk rate compared to the past few years. However, the big shift is a strikeout rate dropping from the mid twenties to single digits, that is cutting his strikeouts by almost two-thirds. Looking deeper, Ryan has been much more selective at the plate. His chase rate is below 20% so far in 2024 when it has lived over 30% for the last three seasons. He has also reduced his first pitch swing rate to the lowest point of his career. Ultimately, seeing more pitches and swinging at better pitches with consistently strong contact rates is a recipe for success. Even with the platoon situation, a strong Baltimore lineup and improved approach is an easy answer.
Verdict: Buy
Teoscar Hernandez
The biggest name in this week’s hitter profiles plays in arguably the best lineup in the majors out in Los Angeles. Teoscar is certainly taking advantage of hitting in the middle of the Dodgers lineup with six long balls on a .267 average and a striking 18 runs and 20 RBI. A player rostered in almost every league, he is easily a top 100 player. However, after two seasons of mid-level production, we have to ask how much we can trust the hot start. To dig in, we have to start with the first place Teoscar has always faltered and that is the strike zone. A 35% strikeout rate is the worst result he has produced in seven seasons. In addition, his current BABIP of .379 is the highest rate of his career. It would be one thing if the hard hits were influencing the results in play, but his hard hit rate is again the lowest it has been in seven season. We also have to pile on how he is putting the ball on the ground at the highest rate in his career. While the lineup around him will continue to provide run scoring opportunities, Teoscar will not be more valuable all season than he is right now. That value to your fantasy team is to capitalize on a needy competitor that has been bit by the injury bug before the wheels start to falter.
Verdict: Sell
