There is something about buying used. Whether it is that pleather couch or your 90’s hatchback, you cannot go wrong. In our fantasy baseball world, this simply means passing up the young shiny objects and buying those old rusty veterans. Sure, we sometimes are fighting Father Time, but at least we know our lineup can drive stick shift. This week we dig into those draft day values that might sneak through the cracks and be waiting around for the savvy owner. Let us dig into this week’s 2023 fantasy baseball hitter profiles!
Jose Abreu
Donning a new jersey in 2023, Jose Abreu already has some draft helium. That said, he had somewhat of a down year from a results perspective which will keep that helium from floating away completely. So what is there to like about Abreu at 36 years old? Well for starters, he is going off the draft board in the eighth round. Moreover, when he gets a full season you are almost guaranteed to see 25 homers, 90 runs and 100 RBI with a fairly respectable batting average. Now, I hear you that he only hit 15 home runs last year. I do not buy an age based decline but rather see a uncharacteristic HR/FB% at barely half of his career average. So we should not be surprised with the power output being about half his career average. It isn’t like he wasn’t getting extra base hits as he had the second highest doubles total of his career. Finally, let us glance at his profile over at Baseball Savant:
Sitting in the top 10% of the league in xBA, xSLG and Hard Hit % is a strong indicator of success this year. In a strong Astros lineup, he should have plenty of opportunities to rack up counting stats. I will gladly grab Abreu a few rounds later than guys like Teoscar Hernandez or Kyle Schwarber.
Mitch Haniger
Now here is a guy that I will own coming out of almost every single draft. I recognize that the market is baking in a level of injury risk which is necessary, but when he plays he is worth every penny. Early in the draft season, Mitch Haniger is criminally undervalued and the market is doubling down on that valuation with the move to San Francisco. In 2021, Haniger hit .253 with 39 homers and 100+ runs and RBI. The following season he paced at a roughly 30 homer and 90+ R and RBI.
Looking at players who hit .250 with 30+ HR and 90+ R/RBI in 2022, there was a total of eight players. The names are the likes of Guerrero, Machado and Goldschmidt. We can expect the full list to be off draft boards within the first two rounds of the draft. Now I am not suggesting that we are drafting Haniger in that same range, but he has the potential to return that type of value. Shopping used, I would much rather have Haniger going in the 14th round than somebody like Seiya Suzuki or Steven Kwan that will cost a pick about five rounds earlier.
Justin Turner
The ageless wonder that is Justin Turner has been a draft value for a few years. While injuries have eaten into his results, they have still been strong when he is on the field. We can be almost certain that he will hit .280+ from the middle of the lineup with decent pop. Certainly moving from the Dodgers to the Red Sox will be a downgrade and he is no spring chicken at 38 years old. However, getting a player that will give reliable production and not drag down your categories elsewhere at the end of the draft is a plus. I would be thrilled to grab Turner 10 rounds after guys like Eugenio Suarez or Kebryan Hayes as we buy used once again.
