The Educator has been focused more on third base than first. Good reasons for that. First base has struggled in recent years to produce young breakout hitters. Matt Mervis. Tristan Casas. Spencer Torkelson. Kyle Manzardo is even struggling a bit in the minors.
Where have all the blue-chip first base hitters gone?
Growing up it seemed like there were always high-impact bats at first base in the pipeline. 2010, Justin Smoak got named after a monster from that show, Lost. 2005, Casey Kotchman and Prince Fielder were top ten in all of baseball. 2000 we were all eagerly awaiting Nick Johnson’s arrival for the Yankees as a top five prospect. It seemed like there was always a bat first big bopper coming up to look forward to.
Nowadays, you have to scroll all the way to the 40 spot to find the first guy in prospect rankings. I’m thinking it’s because of analytics. First base is, I believe, the least valuable defensive position according to smart people like Rudy or the Itch, so premium prospects stay at third, RF, etc.
There have been a few guys recently who had some buzz as the new big corner bat. All have had varying degrees of mainly lack of success, I’ll highlight three of them.
Torky has been dorky, hitting .223 with 12 HR. This is slightly improved from last year, but at least he’s had a few hot stretches to keep our hope alive.
Statcast shows a pretty bunch of red on his profile, with a bit of a blip on the K rate. His metrics suggest a slightly above league average batting average and an over .800 OPS. If there’s any guy who’s going to break out, it’s him.
I’m looking for Torky to get 15 Hr with a slightly above league average BA for the rest of the season.
Triston Casas I’m more worried about. While he can hit the ball hard, his stats against velocity are not encouraging, There’s nothing in his metrics that suggest a bounce back. He does have a patient plate approach, but a power guy can’t be getting blown away on fastballs.
If he turns it around, jump into the house on Casas. I’m buying if I’m having a rough season and need upside to bounce back. There’s no real need to do so, as I’m putting these Casas on the market.
I actually went to Durham Bulls game to scout out Kyle Manzardo. Well, that and it’s near my house. Manzardo had incredible prospect pedigree coming in and some fantasy sites had him top ten for fantasy. This has not come to pass. Manzardo is sitting at .233 for the season. The OPS is below .800. As a hitting prospect, this has to go up for him to be considered.
Matt Mervis got destroyed on his call up as well. He has picked up where he left off in Iowa, but if I were forced to live in Iowa again I’d be doing all I could to get out of that negative situation! Maybe Mash Mervis can regain his nickname and not be so nervous next time he gets a shot.
Man, what a downer of an article, right? Maybe I’m just writing this on July 4, my least favorite holiday.
Can’t do parades, too hot in NC
Fireworks are late at night and crowded.
Did I mention the heat?
Maybe after a few brats and beverages I’ll be feeling better. Have a great week.
