Sundays are fantastic. Around my house, they are typically the recovery day of the weekend. Sundays usually go unscheduled, there is sleeping in, sitting on the couch in sweatpants and sipping coffee; all the good things in life. In the fall and winter there’s football to be had and in the spring and summer there’s a day full of baseball. The full slate and early start times makes for my favorite DFS day of the week as well. Full slate days tend to favor the better DFS players and I much prefer them to a slate with 5 games and 10 similar lineups in every tournament. The early start times mean we have almost every single lineup at our disposal by the time lineups lock. That means we can make accurate lineup decisions, have our lineups in by 1 EST and enjoy the rest of the day watching games and watching our DFS winnings grow. So, let’s dive into the FantasyDraft waters and see if we can’t get some nice ROI on this Sunday Funday.
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Chris Archer, SP: $23,600 – I’m choosing to drop down from Mad Max today if I’m paying up for a starter. I rarely pay for the top starter on the board, but I could see opting for the safety in cash games (at home with an amazing 12+ K-rate against TEX [7th in the league in Ks] and a heavy Vegas favorite). Archer is my pricey GPP option today though. Archer is at home and squaring up against the Oakland K’s…errr…A’s today. The A’s own the 4th most strikeouts in the league and Archer’s 11.05 K/9 is delicious. To summarize: cash games – Scherzer, GPPs – go against the grain with Archer.
Dinelson Lamet, SP: $13,500 – Before his 7 run meltdown in Arizona it seemed like everyone was ready to pick up Lamet and anoint him the next great waiver wire addition of 2017. While I’m not breaking out the anointing oil I do think some recency bias will keep Lamet’s ownership levels low. Lamet is at home in spacious Petco Park and facing the woeful Royals. KC owns the third lowest team OPS in the bigs this year and Lamet is rocking a 13.15 K-rate in his 3 starts. Ks pay the bills in DFS, so don’t miss out.
David Paulino, SP: $12,600 – Paulino is a perfect GPP play today; he’s cheap and has strikeouts to spare. This could be Paulino’s final start in the majors for a bit depending on Keuchel’s status. I suspect he’ll being looking to impress in a final MLB audition against the Trout-less Angels of Anaheim, formerly of Los Angeles, formerly of the entire state of California. His 12 Ks and 2 walks in 9.2 innings is pretty outstanding and his 3.91 FIP compared to 4.66 ERA shows he’s been a titch unlucky.
Nik Turley, SP: $8,800 – This is a complete dart throw, but won’t it be fun to build a lineup around an $8,800 pitcher? Turley has a perfect match-up against the worst offensive team in the bigs, San Francisco (.650 team OPS) in San Francisco, a known pitcher friendly environment. Turley is a 27 year old career minor leaguer, so clearly nothing stupendous. He does however, sport an 84:15 K:BB across two minor league levels this season. I think it’s worth taking a flyer in a GPP lineup to see if he can continue that success for spot start.
Trea Turner, IF/OF: $10,400 – You’ll need the savings on starters if you want to load up on Nats hitters today. The Nationals are facing Austin Bibens-Dirkx, or ABD for short. ABD isn’t long for the majors and for good reason. He’s fairly atrocious and the Nationals are 4th in runs and 3rd in team OPS. Turner has been en fuego at the dish and on the basepaths. Don’t underestimate the power of a few stolen bases in DFS. Steals are 5 points, or half a HR. Turner will have plenty of run scoring opportunities today as well. Load up.
Ben Zobrist, IF: $6,000 – I know Zobrist isn’t the most exciting tool in the box, but he gets the job done. Like a bubble level vs. a laser level, both work, one just looks more fancy. Zobrist should be sitting atop the lineup in a day game at Wrigley with the wind blowing OUT. You know what that means, stack those Cubbies, Senzatela could be in trouble.
Corey Seager, IF: $7,600 – Seager started the year at a price point that made him borderline unrosterable. This pricing is much more fair and he gets a nice match-up against stack-friendly Tim Adleman. I’d look to start any lefty Dodgers today including IF/OF Cody Bellinger at $9,000. Seager is also sporting a 47% hard hit % against RHP this year, good for 7th best in the majors. Cust Kayin.
Kyle Seager, IF: $7,600 – Let’s keep it in the family and look at Corey’s big bro, Kyle. Kyel is also priced at $7,600 and despite the lefty/lefty match-up vs. Happ, Kyle is 4 for 13 with 2 dingers against Happ. Not too shabby.
Mark Reynolds, IF: $8,400 – I already noted the wind at Wrigley (blowing out/day game) so the Rockies bats vs. Arrieta are in play as well. Reynolds has a nice history vs. Jake (6 for 18 with a dong) and Arrieta hasn’t looked like his dominant self at all lately.
Aaron Judge, OF: $10,200 – Expensive? Yes, but my goodness is he fun to watch punish baseballs. Judge has also punished Kevin Gausman so far, cracking two of his 19 bombs off him. There’s hardly a hotter hitter going right now either. I’m not sure what’s in the water in New York, but Brett Gardner ($9,900) also makes a nice play today as he’s 12 for 37 with a dinger and a Steal vs. Gausman in his career.
Josh Reddick, OF: $8,000 – Reddick should find himself right smack in the middle of Houston’s lineup and will enjoy the platoon advantage against Jesse Chavez. Houston is obviously rolling and they are big favorites today in a game with a 9.5 over/under.
Shin-Soo Choo, OF: $6,600 – If you do fade Mad Max today, here’s a surprising bit of BvP data. Choo is 12 for 21 (.571) with 2 long balls and 2 stolen bases off Scherzer. Who knew!? Choo should make for a nice, cheap contrarian play if you’re feeling froggy.
Max Kepler, OF: $7,800 – Matt Cain is simply not that great these days as his 4.87 ERA would indicate. Kepler has been swinging the bat great of late and believe it or not, he owns the 27th best hard hit % vs. RHP (41.4% – Just behind Eric Thames).
Lewis Brinson, OF: $4,800 – Because, why not? He’s been a hot hitter in AAA and gets his first taste of major league action today. You only get one chance to HR in your first MLB AB after all. Robbie Ray has been great, for sure, but Arizona is still Coors south. Brinson is so cheap, I couldn’t leave him off the list. If you pair Mad Max and Archer in a cash game, you’ll need some cheapies like Brinson.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Looks like a beautiful day for baseball. Just note that wind in Wrigley.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Given the size of the over/under in the Cubs vs. Rockies game, you’d think the game was being played in Coors. Vegas knows about the wind in a day game at Wrigley as well and the 11.5 over/under is proof of that. Take note. The BAL@NYY game has a decent over/under as well at 10.5 runs. I didn’t mention any O’s above, but all lefties (Chris Davis, Seth Smith) are in play vs. Chad Green today. Scherzer and the Nats are the biggest favorites on the day (-270) followed by Archer and the Rays (-190).
