What’s up peeps! I found out last week that I have at least two regular readers. Wow, I’m pumped and super motivated, two regulars baby. I write for you guys! I’m only half joking I’m actually really excited that even one person would open Razzball on Sundays to read my stuff. This is why we do it. There is one small caveat today though, I have a wedding in like two hours (my cousin that I haven’t seen in years but my wife tells me it would be “bad form” if we didn’t go). So this wont be the endless word salad that you’ve become accustomed too. I really am just going to give y’all a few plays to start your Sunday lineups. Shout out to Mike D who took our advice and parlayed two dogs into a win. Congrats man lets see if we can replicate that today.
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At this point you should have a good idea of what my strategy is when rostering a pitcher. Go low, so we can go high, elsewhere. You don’t want to play someone cheap just because obviously, on Fanduel with only one pitcher you will have a hard time winning if you SP doesn’t hit value. Especially if other highly owned pitchers do. We have gone more towards the middle of the pack the last couple weeks but today I see just the kind of cheap SP we aim for.
Jordan Montgomery, SP: $6,300 – Montgomery is a lefty and he is coming off one of the best performances in his major league career. 6 IP with 9 Ks while giving up only 1 ER (2BB 1H). He dominated. Usually, you do not want to chase a game like that in DFS. He will be facing the hapless Orioles today. That’s not entirely fair, they have some good young bats, plus a few wily vets. I just saw them up close against my Mets. I could see them being good in a year or two, but not this year. Baltimore is at the top of the league in K’s (meaning they don’t strike out that much) but they are 21st and 26th in average and OPS. This team is not a juggernaut. We like to target bad pitchers for our bats and bad offenses for our pitchers. Particularly when we are playing a less dominate pitcher to save money. The Orioles are a little better so far this year vs lefties but not enough to scare me away. I’d roster Monty in GPPs and even in cash to give yourself an edge as everyone else goes with Stroman and Peralta.
Kenta Maeda, SP: $7,400 – (GPP) Maeda is the classic buy low DFS candidate. He has been struggling this year, after being expected to have a big year. He showed signs two starts ago vs Texas when he had 8 Ks in 5 1/3, but then crapped the bed last start. I always like to roster guys like Maeda in a few GPP lineups, or roster him in 2 of your 3 lineups in a 3 max tournament. Give yourself an edge by having a low owned pitcher in a field where people d0nt have 50+ lineups. If he has a huge game, which is not remotely hard to believe, then you are in a great spot. You could be ahead of 50% of the field with one player because you saved money and got more points then everyone who rostered guys at the top.
This is not super analytical. He is facing Oakland who have struggled some after their amazing run. They have the 10th most strikeouts in the league right now so that helps. Otherwise its just about looking for an edge and trying to get +EV from the idea that good pitching beats good hitting and Maeda when right is a good pitcher. Though we get to roster him for the cost of a so so pitcher.
Batter Up
I think the past three weeks I have told you to roster the Red Sox. Never a bad idea, as good as they are, although they are expensive and highly owned. When I was researching this slate and figuring out what I was going to say here, guess who stood out to me over and over? Yep, the Red Sox. They seem to be facing subpar pitching every Sunday. Here’s what I am going to do. The Red Sox have a great offense, the Angels have been playing bad and Jose Quintana is not that dude. Roster Sox’s in your cash game lineups and because we want pieces of good offenses get a couple lower level guys for GPPs.
The offense that I am going to zero in on for you guys is the Giants. They are playing the hapless, wait can I say hapless two times in one article? *pauses while contemplating* Okay, yes I can, but I’ll add another adjective as to not appear intellectually lazy. They are playing the God awful Pirates. Looking at the Bucs lineup is actually sad, like legit sad. Without Ke’Bryan Hayes they don’t even feature any young exciting players. They do have a few in the farm, I’m digressing hard. I am a big prospect guy. Hint hint brain trust of Razzball, if you need a prospect writer I am your guy.
Back to the game. So, Mitch Keller is pitching today for Pittsburg and Mitch has had negative points in 2 of his last 5 starts. You lost points if you rostered Keller. You also lost respect because man, I hope no one reading this article has rostered Keller, if so, we have failed you. He has an underwhelming strike out rate 20% with an overwhelming amount of walks 13% walk rate. As per statcast 83% of all contact Keller gives up is either hard or medium. Players are just crushing the ball off of him. Yet, he persists. Lets see who best to roster to take advantage of it.
Buster Posey: C, $3,500 – Even though I don’t love rostering a Catcher on FD when you can play a 1st basemen, I do like this spot for Posey. He is pretty cheap and he will hit 3rd probably, meaning he will be up with men on and will get a max amount of at bats.
Brandon Belt: 1B, $2,900 – If you choose to skip Posey Belt is a good pivot for $600 cheaper. He is also a lefty and has been hot the past 7 games, the last game not withstanding.
Brandon Crawford: SS, $3,000 (PLAY OF THE DAY) – Crawford who is my play of the day, yep that’s a thing now, is in an amazing spot. He is a red hot lefty going up against a struggling, and frankly even when not struggling bad overall righty. He is only $3k when far less attractive options are well over that price. Even if you do not stack the Giants roster Crawford in all of your cash game lineups. He is primed for a huge day.
Evan Longoria:, 3B, $2,900 Longoria has been struggling. With Yaz out for the Giants presumably he should move up in the order and what better game to break out then vs Mitch Keller. 2.9k is super cheap and all you really need is a 1-3 with a walk and either a run scored or an RBI to exceed value. To win a GPP each guy has to score double digits, and much more for some guys. But Longoria is fine for cash games and if you are feeling lucky throw him in a couple stacks for your GPP lineups.
I’m Only Happy When it Rains
There are two games that scare me a bit. The Yankees at Baltimore and the Reds at Colorado . Both should start but with models showing rain approaching during the games….will they finish? Could be a good time to do one of two things. Fade Coors field while everyone else rosters them and hope for rain. Or go ham on players at Coors today and hope people fade and hope it doesn’t rain. Our #1 pitcher today is at Baltimore but it looks like the rain isn’t coming until late in the game. I say roster Monty and hope to get 6 strong innings before the rain comes, after that we really don’t care what happens. ;)
Doing Lines in Vegas
I really like the Giants today and they are at -155 as of writing this article. Id throw down the $155 to win a $100. Look in sports, especially baseball, weird things happen. Maybe Erik Gonzales hits 2 home runs and Keller pitches like his life’s on the line, it’s called gambling for a reason. I don’t think those things are going to happen and I’d feel perfectly comfortable taking that bet. Unfortunately for me, I’m in a no sportsbook state which is dumb as dirt. Funny this is it’s a “freedom” state. Yet I can’t impulse bet the Mets if I want. BS
