Everything I Know About 2025 Fantasy Baseball

When I first came to Truss with the idea for an all-in-one, lightning round between myself and my ego and my id and my super-intelligent idea-go (I think that’s what it’s called), he was super-psyched. At least, that’s what I assume the [thumbs up] emoji means. Then he asked if I knew enough to make it longer than one paragraph. Very funny, Mr. Truss. Say that three times fast now and then tell me who has the better user name. ENYWHEY.

It’s fantasy baseball draft season. My home dynasty auction league with Jakkers finished on Saturday morning (I got Roki Sasaki for $40), a bunch of LABR and Tout Drafts finished last week (you should see Truss’ team, it’s delightful), and TGFBI and RazzSlam start this week. A bunch of y’all are probably in the midst of drafting or about to do some crazy March Madness pick ’em to determine draft order (like Coolwhip’s home league, “SuperNuts”, which I just joined). In the moment of the draft, it can be hard to Google the hell out something real quick in 90 seconds before your draft timer is up. “Oh shizz, I forgot about Dre” you say as you write a joke millenials will maybe understand, only to realize via Razzball player universe search that there are no MLB players named Dre this year. Good one, EWB. ENYWHEY part deux. 

If you need to bookmark a page for advice during draft season, consider this one. Let’s jump in with…

Draft Strategy

12-Team Standard Scoring: You’re a beautiful creature, you know? All you gotta do is be yourself and don’t let others make you the fool. Half the battle of the 12-teamer is not falling victim to peer pressure, when the rest of the room starts a closer run or a catcher run or your target pick gets sniped. ADP doesn’t matter after round 2 and if you have a target, get your target now. Don’t wait.

Top Tier Players: 1) Bobby Witt Jr.; 2) Shohei Ohtani; 3) Aaron Judge; 4) Jose Ramirez; 5) Juan Soto. 2025 has been blessed with elite top-tier talent where almost any of the consensus top 10 players could make a case for pick 3. If the Royals were an actual good team, we’d be talking about Bobby Witt in the same “legend” category as Shohei Ohtani. Why Ohtani at #2? Most leagues have him as “UT”, which limits his roster flexibility, and most people agree that he’ll return to pitching. Between the extra workload on pitching and his repaired labrum after an awkward slide during the 2024 World Series, Ohtani will likely play less and steal less than 2024. Cycle through my post history to all the times where I wish Ohtani would stop the two-way play and just become the best hitter of this century.

Starting Pitchers: 1) Zack Wheeler; 2) Logan Gilbert; 3) Paul Skenes; 4) Tarik Skubal; 5) Framber Valdez. None of these starters is worth a first round pick in 12-teamers. Maybe Wheeler merits a 13-15 pick in a 15 teamer, but I’d rather get somebody like Mookie Betts at pick 13 and then Logan Gilbert at pick 18. On the whole, 2025 is an extraordinary year for “a field of starters.” There’s no standout #1 starter for 2025, and the top tier of pitchers all come with enormous workload questions. Top starters are almost always above the 175 IP threshold, and so many of the top starters either haven’t reached that threshold in the career before, or raced up to it last year and look poised for injury in 2025. I’d rather collect hitters early in the draft and grab a cadre of “pretty good” second tier pitchers like Roki Sasaki, Jack Flaherty, Logan Webb, Grayson Rodriguez, Sonny Gray, and if you’ve got an IL, Spencer Strider. There’s a significant “efficient frontier” (see below for more detail) of starters in the ADP 40-60 range, so either prepare to grab somebody here or navigate the SP runs that will pressure you to take Tyler Glasnow and regret it later.

Relief Pitchers: SAGNOF. Refer to the bullpen chart. If you’re in a 12-teamer, you’ll be able to find a closer. If you’re in a 15-teamer, get somebody in the 3rd or 4th round, maybe even before a starter. There are just so many dang starters this year.

Outfielders: The primary reason I want Ohtani to stop pitching and go play right field is that there are practically no outfielders this year. For a 12-team league with standard rosters, the league will be starting a total of 36 outfielders (at minimum) on a given day. With UTIL slots factored in, it’s probably like 45 outfielders, give or take. You know who’s slotted at OF36 in Grey’s rankings? Christian Yelich for a whopping 68/13/63/.281/22 in 461 ABs stat line (see how good I can copy/paste?). Like, I’m reading Grey’s 1B rankings, and there are like 30 legit 1B fantasy players. If you wait too long on OF, you’re in Lars Nootbaar territory. Put another way, Nootbaar’s ADP is past 200. Put another another way, Nootbaar is OF54 on Grey’s rankings. If you’re in a 12-teamer, you can draft your entire outfield before getting a corner INF. If you’re in deeper leagues, you’re gonna have to work harder than ever for OF help.

Ideal Draft Start: I’m drafting 2nd overall in my TGFBI league (15-teamer), so let’s use that starting point for exercise 1 (keeping in mind 15-team leagues promote pitching value a ton). I’ll randomize the other leagues:

• 15-team, pick 2: Round 1: Shohei Ohtani (UT); Round 2: Jackson Merrill (OF); Round 3: Logan Gilbert (SP); Round 4: Ryan Helsley (RP); Round 5: Teoscar Hernandez (OF)
• 12-team standard scoring, pick 8: Round 1: Kyle Tucker (OF); Round 2: Bryce Harper (1B); Round 3: Jazz Chisholm (3B/OF); Round 4: Oneil Cruz (SS/OF); Round 5: George Kirby (SP)
• Razzslam (12-team bestball, pick 12): Round 1: Mookie Betts (SS/OF); Round 2: Julio Rodriguez (OF); Round 3: Ronald Acuna Jr.; Round 4: Corey Seager (SS); Round 5: Ozzie Albies (2B)

That ideal draft start was a fun exercise because on the Razzslam attempt, I was truly stumped what to do in Round 4. I drafted myself into a wall of risk with J-Rod and Acuna, while also over-emphasizing OF. That’s one thing to attend to while drafting — as sexy as Betts/J-Rod/Acuna will be to start, it made my later drafting really tough. As noted in last week’s 2025 best ball draft strategy guide, there’s not a ton of incentive to take starting pitchers in the first 10 rounds or so. And guess where all the pitchers and catchers are bunching up in the ADP rankings? About pick 40 or so.

These “bunchings” are known as “efficient frontiers”, at least to myself and other like-minded drafters [stares at Coolwhip]. The “efficient frontier” are pockets of similar value, whether perceived value or actual value. You know that feeling when you go to McDonalds and look at the menu and you can’t tell the difference between a double cheeseburger and a McDouble? That’s a small example of an efficient frontier. It doesn’t matter what you get, you’re gonna be visiting the toilet later anyway. So just pick something [stares at Corey Seager]. Which brings me to my last mantra…

Don’t Panic

You can draft fantasy baseball teams every minute from now until the heat death of the universe and not come up with the same team. ADP is a construct of perceived value that convinces players to operate within a set of expectations. You like to have fun, don’t you? So go out there and throw caution to the wind and abandon ADP. Almost all the top starting pitchers last year came from outside the top 100 ADP ranks. The 2025 best ball best teams all had different compositions — it wasn’t the same team drafted over and over again. There is no perfect team. Just go out there and have fun.

Let me know how your drafts are going down in the comments! If you’re in my TGFBI draft or RazzSlam draft, give a shout as well!