Ed-Cab For Cubbie

The goal of a trade is to get the better of your opponent. “Suckers,” is what you’re hoping to scream at your trade partners. Let them feel your wrath but brain-wise. Actually, BrainWise is what you think they call you in your league. Like Pennywise, but with brains. “Don’t trade with BrainWise,” is what you think they’re saying about you. In reality, they just think you’ve been in rebuild mode for 17 years and aren’t sure if you understand how “fantasy baseball” works. But alas! Sometimes you manage to match wits in a trade and come out exactly even Steven (a saying that no Steven has ever said, oddly enough). That was the Edward Cabrera for Owen Caissie trade. A patented even Steven trade (apologies to all Stevens). I don’t see a winner in the broad, big picture. Caissie could grow into something special, and EdCab’s arm is a tempest’s tendon in a teapot. For this year? Oh, I love Edward Cabrera! In fact (Grey’s got more!), I already wrote a sleeper post for him, which I will now present to you in its entirety. Anyway, here’s the Edward Cabrera sleeper and the roundup:

Psyche! All of my 2026 fantasy baseball rankings are on the Patreon. Don’t wait for the rankings to come out later this month. Anyway II, the Edward Cabrera sleeper, then the offseason roundup:

I have another confession to make, I can’t say, “I have another confession to make,” and not start singing Foo Fighters’ Best of You, but I also have another confession to make that I didn’t realize how excellent Edward Cabrera was last year. Maybe I knew it at one point, but when I just opened his player page to dig in, I was like, “Oh, wow, maybe he’s a number two? Was that always the case? Did I memory hole that? Did I memory hole what ‘memory hole’ means and am using that incorrectly?” EdCab fixed things, like the Marlins’ pitching coach was Latka Graves. In 2024, EdCab was crazy busted: 10 K/9, 4.7 BB/9, 4.95 ERA and it was 9.8 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 3.53 ERA. Yes, it’s largely because of the increase command, but not entirely. Also, not readily apparent, but he was a tad unlucky. Guy went 3.53 ERA with excellent strikeouts and I just dropped on him “he was a tad unlucky?” Hoo boy, I just perked up my own ears. I’m over here like an elf, sitting on the shelf, about to pop off and do a little dance. By the way, what do Elf on the Shelf owners do with the Elf during non-Christmastime? Do they dress it up in other holiday gear? Does someone put a little suit on him and call him their MLK on a Shelf? So, what can we expect from Edward Cabrera for 2026 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Edward Cabrera’s velocity was up, his pitch mix was completely different and absolutely worked for him. His curve that he threw 23.6% of the time had a .142 BAA. El oh el. C’mon, bro, I’m about to draft EdCab everywhere. That was the 2nd best curveball in the majors for starters, behind Framber Valdez for K%. Framber’s 44.6% vs. EdCab’s 44.3%. You might remember Framber had the best pitch, by K%, in all of the major leagues. Guess that means EdCab was 2nd best? Pretty good guess! Needs some caveats: To include EdCab in best pitch by K% in the majors, you’d have to drop the plate appearances down to 100, so relievers would enter the fray:

Edward Cabrera’s curveball is absurd. His slider’s not too shabby. He threw it 17.3% of the time, and it had a .193 BAA and 43.7% Whiff%. It’s hard to remove the relievers from these charts, because EdCab only threw some of these pitches so few times, because he has five pitches, but I think you’ll see something:

You’ll see em-effin’ Edward Cabrera! That’s what you’ll see! You’ll also see relievers, but they’re top relievers, and relievers can get by on one great pitch. Two if they’re really elite. Starters are not that lucky. That’s okay, Edward Cabrera also has a change that he throws 25.8% of the time and it elicited a .203 BAA. That’s three pitches that are absolutely bonkers. He also has a 97 MPH four-seamer that he only throws 12.7% of the time as a setup pitch, and a sinker (20.6% of the time) that he can’t really figure out how to make work. A stinker, if you will. He doesn’t need it, by the way. He has three elite pitches and five he can throw. If he figures out his sinker? Then he’ll basically be a 2.50 ERA ace. I’m not exaggerating. He’s close to unlocking everything.

So, the elephant in the closet (that’s the saying, right?) is he hit the IL with an elbow sprain in September. Whoa, did I bury the red flag, flashing sign that reads, “TROUBLE?” Meh, he hit the IL on September 1st, was throwing again by mid-September and returned before the end of the season for two starts — one iffy game and then the final game, a prime EdCab effort, striking out seven in five shutout innings to end the Mets season. Am I scared that he had an elbow sprain in September and he’s never thrown more than 137 2/3 IP? Sure, but give me 130 of number two numbers and let me coast. For 2026, I’ll give Edward Cabrera projections of 9-10/3.41/1.20/139 in 132 IP with a chance for much more, especially if he can stay on the field for 160+ IP.

Owen Caissie – Traded to the Marlins. So, I’m a lot less interested in Caissie for this year. Don’t get it twisted, as they say at the worst Wetzels stores, this trade was not even Steven for this year. Caissie is a work in progress. He can’t make contact to really matter, as far as I can tell. He might be a 33+% K%. Sweet sassy molassy, Caissie! That’s not great. But that can get better and why I like this trade for the Marlins. EdCab’s a stud, but pray his arm holds together; Caissie could become excellent by next year. He absolutely has some holes, but big-time power, 40-homer type power, but could hit .210. He kinda reminds me of another Marlins’ prospect, Deyvison De Los Santos, who’s amounted to nothing so far. 2026 Projections: 43/19/54/.212/6 in 390 ABs

Michael Lorenzen – Signed with the Rockies. The two-way player goes to where he will be the Rockies’ number one starter and three-hole hitter. A poor man’s Shohei Ohtani. Call him Po’hei Poh’tani, which sounds like the worst Hawaiian stripper name.

Kazuma Okamoto – Signed with the Jays. Ya know, I’m not sure if this hurts my Addison Barger sleeper, but I’m thinking it might. I also liked Nathan Lukes — Nathan Likes? — and it might hurt that, as well. Oh man, Kazuma Okamoto, you ess-oh-bee, you’re a prospblock! Was the about-to-be, 32-year-old Nathan Lukes a prospect? Umm, well, interjection. Fair enough! Barger might’ve been though. Kinda. The truth of the matter (Grey’s got truths!), guys you think who will be healthy (Santander) won’t stay healthy and there will be at-bats to go around. Am I as thrilled for Barger now? A bit less so, if being honest. Feels like Barger was a lefty platoon guy, who lacked a platoon partner, but now has Lukes. So, about Kazuma Okamoto, he’s basically Murakami, but with better contact. Murakami is younger, though, so there’s hope he grows into more, where Okamoto is what you paid for, which feels like a Japanese Ryan O’Hearn. Call him Ryan O’Saka. Actually, that might be selling Okamoto’s power a little short. 2026 Projections: 67/24/73/.256 in 489 ABs