It’s a simple concept/guideline for life. Don’t make the circle try to fit into the square hole. It’s related to Occam’s Razor which says that the simplest explanation is the one that should be chosen. In DFS this means, don’t overthink things. Take what’s out there on a given slate, and don’t try to manufacture something or divine something that isn’t there. For example, you are looking at a slate and there are only a couple of pitchers that make sense, but you start thinking about diversifying and other techniques that you’ve picked up throughout the season and you begin to talk yourself into a couple of other starters to give you this diversification even though your research, and your gut, told you that there were only the two starters you liked. This is the way you turn your perfectly good knowledge into lost contests with your new creations that didn’t need to be there to begin with.
The alternative in that situation, if you feel like you shouldn’t put all your bankroll eggs for the night into a single SP basket, would be not to play the volume you normally would. If you feel that strongly about diversifying, but the SPs aren’t there to do it, emanate some inner strength and simply not play the additional volume you would’ve if you did have other SPs you liked.
The same goes with hitters. In a bunch of columns this season, I’ve varied the number of guys I’ve listed here. Today, for example, there are probably fewer than in past weeks. Why? There are fewer players I like on the slate, because of the matchup, prices, tap dancing skills, hat size, whatever. Therefore, I am likely going to play fewer lineups, contests, etc, based on this, although it’s tempting to play my full budgeted bankroll for the night because I like the action. But to do that would be me trying to fit an octagon into a triangle hole. Or something. Just don’t.
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Kris Medlen, SP: $4,600 – I had to check three times to make sure I had the salary right on this. It’s 4.6K for Medlen, who is a -167 favorite tonight, at home, against the worst road team in the league this year (the Twins) seems like a steal. Over his last five starts, he has a 3.17 SIERA and a 52% ground ball rate. He’s getting a 10% swinging strike rate over those games and the Twins are whiffing at a 27% K-rate over the past 14 days. Forget seems, it is a steal.
James Shields, SP: $9,400 – I am not as high on Shields, but the matchup against the Rockies makes sense. Despite the talk this season about Petco not being the pitchers haven it was a few years ago, the stats have it as the fifth most friendly pitcher’s park, so it’s still a nice place to roster a SP. Shields’ SIERA over the last month is a startling 4.44, which is bad, but the Rockies are 28th out of 30 on the road and strike out 24% of the time in those away games. Shields is a -160 favorite, is at home and still carries a 12% swinging strike rate over the last month. I’ll take him.
J.P. Arencibia, C: $2,900 – Hard not to go with J.P. as he’s been good over the past week, and has a .566 wOBA over the past year against lefties. Yowza. Toss in that since he’s been back, he’s second only to Chris Davis in power metrics and I’ll take him in this matchup for less than 3K.
David Ortiz, 1B: $4,900 – Here’s one not to overthink. Ortiz, at home, against the road-awful D-Hutch. His wOBA in this situation is .431 so giddy-up.
Logan Forsythe, 1B/2B: $3,700 – LoFo enjoys a .410 matchup wOBA and is batting in middle of the Rays lineup against Kyle Lobstein, who has been not-good in SIERA and any other metric. It’s a nice matchup for the Rays and Forsythe.
Cesar Hernandez, 2B/SS: $2,900 – Hernandez is in my picks pieces so much it’s practically an advertisement. If you don’t like middle infielders who put up solid double-digit games for less than 3K, then I guess you can just move on to the next player.
Josh Donaldson, 3B: $4,800 – Donaldson’s splits aren’t other-worldly against Joe Kelly, but you put the best hitter in the best game total and down in price by $800 and I am rostering him.
Travis Shaw, 3B/1B: $2,800 – But if you don’t want to go to Donaldson, then make sure Shaw is playing and roster accordingly against Hutchison. Great value here, depending on where he is hitting.
Jung-Ho Kang, SS/3B: $3,800 – At the beginning of the season, he was a mystery, but the only thing that’s confusing about the guy now is maybe how to pronounce his name. His game has quickly developed into a solid play on any occasion.
Brandon Guyer, OF: $2,900 – I talked about the Rays matchup in Logan Forsythe’s write-up above here, so since Guyer also enjoys a nice vs. LHP split (.368 wOBA) and leads off now and is less than 3K, I’m good with this. I’m good with this, for sure.
Gregory Polanco, OF: $3,500 – The Pirates are forecasted to score 4.6 runs against the Reds so if the weather holds up, Polanco leading off against Keyvius Simpson is a solid play at this number.
Jose Bautista, OF: $5,200 – I’ve shown you so much value in this column that you should have zero problem putting Bautista in the lineup tonight. He has a .391 wOBA and we’ve already discussed how this is the top run total of the night, so let’s add-in that Fenway has been the third friendliest hitting park in the league this year.
Mookie Betts, OF: $4,900 – Same as Bautista, the dollars are there, the matchup is good, and in Betts’ case he’s hitting leadoff. Go ahead, make your day.
Carl Crawford, OF: $2,500 – Just in case you rostered a more expensive SP (octagon much?), if Crawford is in the lineup he’s a solid value at this price, even though the Dodgers aren’t supposed to score a bunch against Garrett Richards.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
There’s a chance of a game-time thunderstorm in Cincinnati with the Pirates and the Reds, but otherwise the slate is forecasted to be weather clean beyond that game.
Doing Lines In Vegas
The Red Sox and Blue Jays, in Boston, have been assigned a whopping 10 run game total, as we discussed in the player notes. Both these teams have seen the starting pitchers before, making the line very reasonable. Medlen (KC) and Shields (SD) are the two highest favored starters on the slate tonight.
