What’s cooler than being cool? FRIAS!!! What’s 6’4 but weighs as much as a pile of sticks? FRIAS!!! What throws 95 MPH and induces groundballs at a 60% clip? FRIAS!!! Sorry for the over the top enthusiasm but I’m all jacked up on Mountain Dew and pixie sticks tonight, and I just spent the last hour and half watching the Bad News Bears on MLB Network. Oh not the classic with Walter Matthau, but the sequel “Breaking Training”. The kids get to play in the Astrodome!! In the last scene of the movie the gang gets simultaneous career ending knee injuries, and all get addicted to painkillers. It was awffffful. You know what isn’t awful? FRIAS!!! As in Dodgers starter Carlos Frias. So far in 22 and 1/3 as a starter the ICEMAN (Frias means cold in español) has a 2.82 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and as mentioned earlier a very nice GB%. His K upside is limited, but he’s very capable of 5-6 punchouts and 6 innings each time he goes out. So he’s a bit of a boring player and his upside is somewhat limited, but we haven’t even discussed the two biggest reasons I’m advocating you start him today. First his price, he only costs a measly $5,400. That’s literally pennies on DraftKings, Hell Brandon Belt will set you back more than that. The second and maybe biggest reason for my enthusiasm is his opponent the Muy-Frias San Diego Padres. Over the past 14 days the Friars are the worst offense is baseball putting up an embarassing team wOBA of just .270. Over the same period they’ve also struck out at a rate of 24.8% . That’s no bueno… Still not convinced? Well fine then do you trust the Stream-O-Nator? Because that stone cold guerrilla pimp has Frias valued at $11.7, good enough for the 6th best pitcher of the day just ahead of Sonny Grey. Still not convinced? Fine start Chad Bettis….
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Francisco Liriano, SP: $8,000 – I was very close to going Gio Gonzalez here but I just can’t trust him at the moment. So instead I’ll go with Liriano who’s coming off a very rough outing vs the Twins. I’m willing to shake that off because the Twins are playing great baseball and are killing lefties this season. Liraino has K upside (9.82 K/9), and his opponent this afternoon – the Mets – have struggled the last two weeks. Amazin’ k’s enough (20.4%) to be considered a good matchup, and at a price that’s just the 7th highest of the day I’m willing to put my faith in the unpredictable Liriano. After Gio, Liriano is SON’s second favorite starter of the day.
Jimmy Nelson, SP: $7,600 – Doesn’t Jimmy Nelson sound like a character from a 1950’s comic book? I guess I’m just thinking about Jimmy Olsen form the Superman comics. Don’t know my comics sorry. Regardless, last time out Nelson shut down the mighty Tigers over 8 frames, only allowing 1 earned. Well today he gets the Punch and Judy Braves. Did you know Punch and Judy are puppets? Me either. Any way, The Braves have been anything but scary the last two weeks only connecting for 2 homers. They don’t strikeout a ton but they won’t kill you with one stroke of the bat. SON doesn’t like this start but sometimes you have to go against the bots.
Stephen Vogt, C: $3,800 – 1.064…That’s Vogt’s OPS vs RHP so far this season. He just so happens to face a weak righty in Erasmo Ramirez this afternoon. I’m pretty sure I’ve recommended him for three weeks straight now. His price is just always so damn attractive.
Wilin Rosario, C/1B: $3,800 – For most of 2014 Rosario struggled against RHP batting only .249 with 4 homers against them in 303 PA’s. Quite a contrast when you consider he hit .317 with 8 knocks off LHP in a third of the plate appearances. After an early season demotion Rosario has returned to the Mile High City and been one of the hottest hitters in baseball slugging .468 with a wOBA of .341 through 48 PA. He’s no longer catching and dealing with the rigors that go along with it may all be playing a role in his resurgence at the plate. Rosario sat in the second game of yesterday’s double header so he should be fresh and ready to go.
Brandon Moss, 1B/OF: $3,900 – Moss dodged a bullet with Johnny Cueto who is skipped for his start today and replaced by Raisel Iglesias. This will be the young Cuban righties third spot start of the season. He’s a fly ball pitcher that’s yet to give up a homer. Moss is a pull hitter that feasts on RHP, and the wind is blowing out to right at Progressive. This all adds up to a really good matchup for Moss. I’m going to go out on a limb and say he goes yard.
Danny Espinosa, 2B/SS: $3,700 – Rocking a mustache that would make even Frank Zappa blush, Espinosa has been a solid play all year in dailies. He’s had 6 or more points in 6 of his last 10 and has the BvP advantage over Aaron Harang. He’s 5/12 all time against the Harangatang, he’s cheap at $3,700, and you can fit him into multiple spots in your lineup.
Trevor Plouffe, 3B: $3,900 – So far this season, Plouffe is a major cog in the lefty destroying machine known as the Minnesota Twins. In 62 PA vs southpaws Plouffe is hitting .288 with 3 homers and 13 ribbies. Lucky for Plouffe Jose Quintana is on the mound for the White Sox. He hasn’t had a ton of success against Quintana in his career but Trev does have a wildly attractive wife that’s apparently into role play, s0 score one for the Plouffe. Some guys just have all the luck. BTW, random thought, I hope when something good happens he says “score one for the Plouffe…”
Red Sox and Angels Hitters – With a strong wind blowing out to right center there could be some serious fireworks in this game today. The best part is if you listened to my previous suggestions, you’ll have plenty of coin to grab Mike Trout, Kole Calhoun, and Hanley Ramirez. Vegas agrees as they have this game with the second highest total of the day at 9.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Three threats of rain today, the most likely of which is the St. Louis and Kansas City game which sits at 75% at the moment. The Twins @ White Sox is hovering around 50%, and the Giants at Rockies looks like they may see some delays or maybe even a called game as their are thunderstorms in the later afternoon forecast.
Doing Lines In Vegas
As I mentioned before, Vegas is seeeing high totals in the Red Sox vs Angels contest at Fenway, as well as the San Francisco – Rockies matchup at Coors….I know shocking! They have the Mets vs Pirates as the lowest scoring game of the day, which bodes well for my Liriano love. Other than that, there are 5 games listed at a total of 7. The biggest favorite of the day is Cleveland at -236.
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