Who doesn’t want to draft every Sunday of the fantasy baseball season? Well then, pop on over to DRAFT.com and join a 3, 4, 6 or even 10 player draft. I’ve been playing around over there a bit this first week plus and depending on which size draft your choose will determine how you attack the draft. I’ve been using the principles of Value Based Drafting or VBD to draft my teams. This means taking the projected points for the final player drafted at each position (P, IF, OF) and subtracting from all the players at that position, then re-ranking based on VBD. This is especially easy to pull off if you have subscribed to Rudy’s Tools. If not, you can use the same principles with your own rankings. All that being said, there are three top pitchers on the slate today with Shohei Ohtani, Kershaw and Morton. Ohtani is my top target, because, why not at this point? Ohtani has done nothing but live up to the hype so far with his fastball checking in at the highest velocity among all starting pitchers so far this year. That said, if I were playing a 3 man draft, I’d pass on pitcher until my final pick. In the 4, 6 and especially 10 player drafts though, I’d boost these three up a bit to make sure I nabbed one and would be inclined to reach a tad for Ohtani. Let’s look at a few more early, middle and late round picks for your Draft…drafts!
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Charlie Morton, SP: Middle – The Astros are the biggest favorites on the day and a home date against the hapless Padres is the reason why. Tyson Ross should provide Morton with plenty of run support and the win gives Morton 4 points. I assume Kershaw will be drafted before Morton in most drafts and I’d be fine waiting for that to happen and pouncing on Morton.
Reynaldo Lopez, SP: Late – Obviously, late is a relative term here, I’d look Jake Arrieta’s way in 6 player drafts, but Reynaldo is a nice target in anything deeper. The White Sox check in as -150 favorites vs. the Tigers and Reynaldo looked pretty darn good to me his first time out. The walks are a bit concerning but the Ks pay the bills. Remember the list of fastball velocities I mentioned earlier? That list so far is Ohtani, Severino, Syndergaard and Reynaldo. Not too shabby!
Ozzie Albies, IF: Early – It would be wise to take a look at Draft’s predraft rankings when deciding on a strategy. For example, Charlie Morton is their top projected pitcher on the slate. That means if anyone gets an autodrafted pick, they are likely picking Morton. Albies is the 5th ranked infielder, but I’ve got him even higher. If you can nab Arenado and Albies in a 3 or 4 player draft, you’re way ahead of the game.
Charlie Blackmon, OF: Early – Blackmon would be my #1 pick no matter the draft. He’s got the platoon advantage and the Coors factor, draft and enjoy.
Francisco Lindor, IF: Middle – Draft has Lindor ranked as the 13th highest projected infielder which makes him a fine target for the middle of your drafts. They even have Kurt Suzuki ranked ahead of him. Even with the Coors factor, that’s foolish. Chances are in a 3 player draft, others won’t even be looking his way. Don’t be that person.
George Springer, OF: Middle – Springer is another player that stands out as being ranked too low by Draft, but the duel threat should not be overlooked. Tyson Ross looked decent in his first start, but this isn’t Petco anymore. As mentioned before, the Astros are huge favorites and Springer will be right in the middle of the offensive fireworks.
Dansby Swanson, IF: Late – I’ll admit I never thought Dansby would be a great fantasy asset. He just doesn’t do a lot of anything well enough to be fantasy relevant. He’s still so young though and there is talk of a mechanical tweak, getting lower in his stance this offseason that has him pulling the ball less and spraying the ball more. Early samples prove this out and Dansby has been hitting the cover off the ball. Coors field is a giant bonus, he’s facing a lefty and he’s hawt fiyah right now.
Michael Brantley, OF: Late – Here’s a nice late pick that most players may overlook. Draft had Brantley projected for zero points currently, which puts his rankings nearly off the page. That means he may be forgotten by the less savvy players. Savvy?
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Rain? Nah, nah, we got snow up in Minnesota. That’s how they roll. Not only is it projected to be 22 degrees at game time, there’s snow on tap. Doubtful this one plays as baseball players are fragile folks. It’s subarctic other places as well, mostly the Northeast, but no snow is predicted, so the games should play. Cold is generally a plus for pitchers.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Our biggest over/unders on the slate are obviously, Coors (11.5) with BAL@NYY and TOR@TEX both checking in at 9.5. The smallest game total is LAD@SF with Kershaw on the rubber checking in at 7.5 runs. The Astros (-260) are the biggest favorites followed by Clevland and Mike Clevinger at -215.
