Razzball’s 2014 KFFL Fantasy Baseball Analysis Draft

I was fortunate enough to be invited to this year in KFFL’s Fantasy Baseball Analysis Draft (which leads to a BAD acronym).  It has historically been a 12-team mixed snake draft league but has now been expanded to 15 teams.

Some drafts require a lot of prep time – this one had the prep time of a TV dinner.  It came right on the heels of LABR which follows the same format.  Then my pals at KFFL (Nick Minnix and Tim Heaney) were nice enough to ‘randomly’ assign me the same pick (#8) I had in LABR.  Sweet.

My strategy going into the draft was similar to LABR – draft 9+ SPs, be AVG-conscious, get two top 15 closers, try to nab one of the speedy/solid AVG MIs, and anticipate and/or dodge position runs.  There were a couple of post-LABR draft learnings I incorporated:

• It is a safe bet that Freeman will be there at #23 so there’s a solid 1B safety pick if I go OF in first round.
• Emphasize Catchers a little bit more (assuming Josmil Pinto starts the year in AAA, a Doumit/AJ Ellis duo is probably the worst in the league)
• Secure your 2nd and 3rd OFs sooner (did not draft my 2nd/3rd OFs in LABR until 12th/13th rounds).
• Be a little less dependent on 2nd-year players (LABR team has Puig/Segura in first 3 rounds).

Below is my team.  My round-by-round notes – as well as all the rosters, participants, and the participants’ round-by-round notes (interesting stuff) – can be found here.

Some overall notes:

• I had some really nice luck in Rounds 2/3.  My switch from Chris Davis to Adam Jones as the 1st round pick (considered Ryan Braun as well) worked out wonderfully when Joey Votto miraculously fell to pick #22.   I then had fellow Red Jay Bruce fall to me in the 3rd round (in LABR, I got Puig with the 2nd pick but ended up with Segura at #3 when Bruce and a few other OF targets got sniped before my pick).
• I am both psyched and anxious about Verlander (4th) and Hamels (8th) as my top two SPs.  As long as Hamels does not miss more than April, I think he will deliver value (Paxson/Leake are above replacement value).  This is a solid #1/#2 even if they both deliver 80% of their peak years.
• In my LABR draft, I went Kenley Jansen over Wil Myers because I had not drafted a pitcher yet and felt Jansen’s 30+ K’s above average would help soften the blow of not having an ace.  With Verlander in tow, I chose Myers over a top reliever with the 5th pick.  I think he has AVG downside but a very good shot at an 80/30/90 season with up to 10 SBs thrown in.
• This draft occurred before the spring training hype on Mike Moustakas’s resurrection and Javier Baez’s ascendancy.  I like their value at where I drafted them and just hoping their ADP does not escalate too much (note: just drafted Moustakas in a Razzball-sponsored NFBC draft at 18.13).
• I am happy with my SP depth.  Felt like I got a good mix of K’s and ERA/WHIP.
• I totaled up the team roster values based on my 15-team $ and, not surprisingly (because they are my $), my team was 1st at $317.  The next two were BaseballHQ’s Ryan Bloomfield at $282 and the Baseball Prospectus duo of Mike Giannella and Paul Sporer at $272.  The lowest was $237.  Average was $263.  This does not mean much except: 1) My $ values are at least proportionally right and 2) I didn’t screw up the draft.
• My hit/pitch split was 66/34 which was right about on target (I’ve used 67/33 for all my $ this year).