MLB DFS in September is rather similar to beach towns in September: the Shoobies are gone, but the temperature is just right. It’s a feeling that Don Henley captured perfectly in his minor chord opus, “The Boys of Summer.” With the impending NFL season, some players may have stopped playing MLB on Draft.com. That doesn’t mean there aren’t contests to be won; contests you can get a leg up in by digging deep with guys like Eric Young, Jr.
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Rich Hill, SP: Early. The Mets have a couple right-handed bats that are a concern, but as a team, they have a wRC+ of 89 vs LHP the last 30 days. That’s with the return of Todd Frazier, even. Hill isn’t a workhorse. He can get you 6 innings and 7-8 Ks, though.
Wade LeBlanc, SP: Middle. Speaking of teams with a garbage wRC+ against LHP, the Orioles are second to last in the league with a 54. They threw in the towel a while back and just want to get the season over with. At home facing a weak opponent is a nice spot for Leblanc.
Joe Musgrove, SP: Late. It’s been an up and down year for Musgrove. He tends to fare better at home and the Reds aren’t very good on the road. They aren’t very good against RHP, either. They, well, aren’t very good at much, being the Reds and all. Musgrove isn’t a lock, but could dominate.
Matt Carpenter, IF: Early. The Matt Carpenter revenge tour has continued to rage on. Erick Fedde wasn’t quite ready for the bigs in his prior stint this season; I doubt much has changed for him at this point. Carp should produce in this spot.
Nelson Cruz, IF: Middle. Another year, another season of Nelly raking 40-ish homers. He will continue to defy ageists for at least a few more weeks. His top-10 ISO of .268 is always a middle-round deal.
Tim Anderson, IF: Late. Anderson is an all-or-nothing kind of cat. He might get you 20-plus points; he might get you zero. There are more zeros than 20s. Against the husk of Francisco Liriano, though? I’m willing to gamble.
Charlie Blackmon, OF: Early. There aren’t many players more consistent than Blackmon at home against a righty. He has more power and a better wOBA vs RHP, with a jump of 50 and 20 points, respectively. Take the bankable scoring early.
Joey Gallo, OF: Middle. Don’t be scared away from Gallo as a lefty on lefty; his ISO is actually a few points higher against the pitchers of the same handedness. Andrew Heaney has had some struggles lately, particularly with the long ball. Who better to swing for the fences against him?
Eric Young, Jr., OF: Late. Young has always had a much better split vs LHP. Lefty Mike Minor has actually been able to right the ship some recently, but he’s still well below average as an MLB pitcher. Young is dirt-cheap value, with a .400 SLG vs LHP and excellent odds at a stolen base with Robinson Chirinos catching.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
There’s some rain around and a possibility of a delay in Texas (Angels-Rangers) and Colorado (Giants-Rockies) tonight.
Doing Lines in Vegas
The Teamonator likes the under at 8.5 on Cleveland-Kansas City. I’m on board with that. The Indians get a bit too much credit against lefties, and the Royals can go belly-up any game.
