Someone tell @DonkeyTeeth this is not a football article and the JAGs mentioned above do not reside in DUUUUUUUUUU-VAAAAAAAAAAL. Keep reading and you will find out what a JAG is and how we are weaving them into our DFS line-ups.
Well, folks, it appears as if Commissioner Manfred has started inserting the home run balls at a stadium near you. After a month plus of low offensive numbers, followed by a month of middling numbers, balls are flying out of the park and we are back to enjoying our favorite summer pastime.
What does that mean for DFS? It means I am leaning toward not paying up for Aces as much as I did early in the season. In fact, I am going to pivot away from the chalky pitchers like Justin Verlander, Alek Manoah, Aaron Nola, and Julio Urias by focusing more on the JAG (Just A Guy) pitchers facing less than stellar offensive units.
Not only will the JAGs save you some money, but they will give you insight into players and teams you do not normally watch thus leading to a more rounded portfolio for you to choose from in future DFS contests. Information is power and when you use JAGs you increase your knowledge base and that is never a bad thing when making educated bets.
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Kyle Wright, SP: DK: $8,500 – Some of you may scoff when you read Wright as a JAG. Let’s be honest, until this season, he was probably less than a JAG a more of a pitcher you rarely considered. His breakout 2022 season has seen a great April, rough May, and awesome start to June. Diving in to Wright’s game log the first thing that pops out to me is our guy has only given up more than three earned runs in only one…ONE…game over 12 starts this season. He is averaging almost seven K’s and just at two walks per start; basically a 3.5/1 K to BB rate. I believe Wright will get stretched out and provide longer starts (more innings) and we can all reap the benefits. Throw in Saturday’s match-up against the Cubbies who are 17 games below .500 and we have the makings of our Saturday Ace.
Chris Flexen, SP: DK: $7,300 – Now we get into a real JAG. If you want to argue with me about Flexen being a JAG, trust me when I say you will lose. Flexen is your typical #4/5 MLB starter. A guy that attempts to eat innings, keep his team in the game, and pass it over to the bullpen. I truly thought the 2021 14-win season was something Flexen could build on and I have only been somewhat right to date. Please, hear me out, here. I do have a method to my madness. Similar to Wright, albeit not as positive in the results (wins) column, Flexen has given up more than three earned runs in only two…TWO… games over 12 starts this season. He has given up less walks than Wright. There are three major issues I see with Flexen: (1) he allows too many hits; (2) he does not strikeout enough batters; (3) the Mariners are struggling to score runs. Now, on a nice, warm Saturday and T-Mobile Park, I am full behind Flexen based on his match-up. Remember, the Angels were two outs away from being no-hit by Tyler Anderson earlier this week. We will save a lot of money and bank on the Angels being the Angels and the Mariners smacking around the Patrick Sandoval change-up to garner a win. Note for the Seattle hitting coach: If I know Sandoval is throwing changeups all day, then you should know the same and instill it into your players heads!
Editor’s Note: I have officially met my Mariners quota for the week.
Travis d’Arnaud, C: DK: $3,800 – I need offense from Atlanta to help Kyle Wright and since my previous advice on William Contreras was a bust, I figure I will pivot ever so slightly and go with the Atlanta backstop slugger d’Arnaud against lefty Justin Steele at Wrigley. The weather report does not show any wind on the North Side for Saturday, but that can change in an instant. Our guy is 12 for his last 37 with four HR and 11 RBI. The real key for me, as d’Arnaud is concerned is his contact rate. I will not bore you with too many analytics other than to say four strikeouts over 37 ABs is a nice indicator of a guy who is seeing ball and hitting ball. If you are not a big fan of d’Arnaud or are looking for another option, check out the rookie MJ Melendez going up against lefty Cole Irvin in Oakland.
Ji-Man Choi, 1B: DK: $4,200 – Want/need another example of a JAG? Here you go. Ji-Man just does his job while looking like every Sunday softball first baseman. Another guy who plays every day and just keeps putting up stats. Akin to d’Arnaud, Choi is 12 for his last 35. Now, Choi does not flash the power like other corner infielders do, but we need some low price options to get some of the remaining players under contract. We are looking for a multi-hit performance from our solo Rays player while allowing the big boppers to carry the load.
Jazz Chisholm, Jr., 2B: DK: $5,300 – Not a JAG. Not in the least. We cannot roster all JAGs, so let’s have fun while spending money! To revisit last week’s column, I adeptly stated, “he [Jazz] is second to Altuve in HR, but that all changes this weekend…mark it down now.” Jazz now leads all MLB 2b in HRs (and one behind Trevor Story in RBI) and I expect him to keep chasing Tommy Edman for the lead in steals. If you do not love Jazz, you do not love baseball. He is everything that is right with today’s game. Enjoy him while he is here, especially with Ozzie Albies down for an extended period.
Manny Machado, 3B: DK: $5,900 – I tried to talk myself out of repeating last week’s 3b recommendation, but just cannot do so. Sure, I was one day late and also one day early on Manny Machado last week. The one day I write him up is the only day, recently, that he did not hit. Insert German Marquez’s ERA over 6 and WHIP over 1.50 and you get the idea. If you need one more reason to roster Machado, allow me to introduce you to 17 MPH winds blowing out at Coors. You’re welcome! If Manny feels too chalk and you want another JAG, look no further than Brandon Drury and his 13 HR. Drury faces off against Milwaukee’s Jason Alexander, at the Great American Smallpark. The Brewers will be asking for ‘Serenity Now’ if the Reds can get hot.
Corey Seager, SS: DK: $5,400 – Quick Quiz – Which SS is leading MLB in HR while batting under .230? It seems like every time I look at a box score, Seager is doing something nice, but the numbers, other than 13 HR just do not support that view. Full transparency here…I love the player so I may want to see he is doing great things. I do think the Rangers have been pushing a little too hard (See: Marcus Semien to start the season). They are headed on the road against a really bad Detroit Tigers team and I think that is just what Texas needs to get right.
Aaron Judge, OF: DK: $6,100 – Judge is not a JAG. In fact, he is about as far from a JAG as you can get at the moment. 25 HR with a plus .300 average. What more do you need? Pay up, especially if you saved money with some of the JAGs above. I am not a NYY fan. In fact, I despise the franchise. With that said, I simply cannot see not playing Judge at this point.
Kyle Tucker, OF: DK: $5,800 – In the slot normally reserved for Julio Rodriguez, I give you the most boring superstar in baseball. The guy just plods along and puts up stats. He appears to be a JAG, but is much more than that. Seriously, what is there not to like about 13 HR, 11 steals, 40 RBI, and a plus .260 average? Add in the Johnny Cueto experiment and I think Tucker has a fine Saturday ahead of him.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
No weather to report other than the aforementioned wind blowing out at Wrigley (17 MPH).
Doing Lines In Vegas
I like many of the road teams on Saturday. Look to place some smaller, fun bets on ATL, NYY, TB, SF, and SD. Throw a couple of bucks at my guy Chris Flexen’s Mariners and you can thank me later.
