I start my process every day by recognizing that making money in DFS requires 1st place finishes every so often and that I must have a fearless mentality (willing to lose) in order to win. I love the way this slate sets me up to play fearless tonight. I think the high priced “safe” pitching options are a trap. Hunter Brown and Max Meyer are very expensive and not playing their best baseball currently. Even the hitters that are standing out are lower priced and will likely be lower owned tonight. There is a lot you can do to create +EV rosters at low ownership.
The Vegas totals tell us that people will be clamoring to roster Yankees and Padres tonight. They have by far the highest totals. Although 5 man stacks are a great way to aim for first place, I am going to look for 4 man stacks that I like and hope to hit on some of the many one offs and two/three man stacks that I like. Generally, two man stacks are tough to hit on, but there are quite a few duos that can carry a team’s offense and have big power upside. Let me give you an idea of what I am talking about.
I really like LAD, BAL, SF, PHI, MIL, NYY, and ARI tonight. I would stack those teams up with 4 or 5 batters from any of those teams and feel pretty good about my roster. The Dodgers have a stacked roster that can often be costly to roster if you really want to fit in their studs. I suggest playing Ohtani/Will Smith duos tonight. It’s a strong combo that should project for a high floor/ceiling and could differentiate your rosters enough to reach first. COL has a good matchup tonight, but who wants to invest in a 4+ man stack of that offense? I suggest playing the two power/speed OFs, Beck and Doyle, and reap some high upside bats at a low price. Again, how many people will roster only 2 Rockies, but it seems like the better play.
Take a look through my suggestions below and start constructing rosters that stack 4 people from the same team (or 5) while looking for other groupings of 2 or 3 players that work within the salary cap. I always think it’s a good idea to roster at least one player from lower in the lineup (spots 7-9) when stacking 5.
New to DFS? You can start playing right now on Underdog and put our picks to the test. If you’re scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond, be sure to read our content and subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays. Just remember to sign up through us before jumping into the fray, it helps support your Razzball team!
Kevin Gausman, SP: $9,000 – You would think on a slate this big, you would get a SP that you really like. Not the case. However, Gausman has been great for a while with spurts of inconsistency. He is on a roll right now, and that’s the time to roll with him, in my opinion. Pitchers who go to SEA often get a K bump due to the park.
Aaron Nola, SP: $8,300 – This price has me buying in a little, that and the revamped stuff that has him looking like an ace, especially in the last two games against really good opponents. The lack of other options has me buying in.
Will Smith, C: $4,100 – With so many pay down options tonight, I am surely going to pay up for an elite C. Will Smith is having one of his best seasons so far, and he hits in the middle of an unstoppable offense. I wouldn’t mind this as a one off play tonight.
Ryan Mountcastle, 1B: $3,300 – I keep banging this drum because Mountcastle has some of the hardest hit balls amongst 1b and BAL keeps him in the middle of the lineup every day. This is a great matchup for the Orioles, and the whole team should be swinging for the fences in this one.
Daniel Schneemann, 2B: $3,200 – Uh…Professor? Who? 167 wRC+ with the highest barrel rate amongst 2b. He only plays vs. RHPs, but Nola should stay in the game for 5-7 IP, giving Schneemann a chance to make an impact at a low salary.
Matt Chapman, 3B: $4,400 – Chapman gets dinged for his home park, but he has been putting up elite numbers at 3B consistently as a Giant. He gets a good matchup in a park that plays way more hitter friendly as the weather warms up. Here we are.
Willy Adames, SS: $3,900 – Adames has been picking it up recently at the plate, and his price has not yet caught up to his production. The underlying stats are great, as to be expected, and MIN is even going to have good hitting weather tonight!
Brenton Doyle/Jordan Beck, OF: $4,200 avg – These two Rockies have been stinging the ball lately. The high K rate will be offset by the SP (Vasquez) and the home park, allowing the hard hit skills and speed to carry more weight in making this decision.
Kyle Stowers, OF: $4,500 – Barrel Rate becomes more signal than noise somewhere between 50-100 ABs and Stowers has the 3rd highest amongst OFs, behind only Judge and Cruz. His K rate likely will not be an issue vs. a bad CWS pitching staff. It even seems like he can handle lefties. This pick will be extremely low owned.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
No happiness today :( – – I do really love weather when it keeps people away from good spots. That’s not a concern today.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Vegas is not telling us much today except that SD could be really fortunate in Coors and the Yankees are facing one of the worst pitching staffs in MLB at what is shaping up to be a nice hitting park. It is startling to see the Cubs with one of the lowest implied team totals today. That tells you something about the poor hitting conditions in New York today.
