There are three teams that have generated bottom of the barrel offensive stats for the season and into this recent stretch of play: CWS, MIA, and COL. COL and CWS are on the road facing capable SPs while MIA is at home facing the rookie flamethrower, Christian Scott. OAK enjoyed a run of hot power hitting that has cooled against HOU pitching and they are on the road to face Cole Ragans. I start this 13 game slate breakdown off in this way because these are 4 spots that will stand out to a majority of DFS players as good pitchers to target. Other pitchers I am considering a deeper dive into are John Means who faces the highest K% team in SEA, Chris Bassitt who gets TB at home and is regressing in a positive way towards a lower ERA, and Andrew Heaney who gets a LAA team in flux.
The NYY bats stand out in a big way. Their entire offense is starting to put it together and they face Mike Clevinger who has a 14%K rate and an 11% BB rate so far this year. This will not be an easy spot for him to get on track. TOR has a good track record so far vs. LHPs and they face an average one in Tyler Alexander. Vlad and Bichette are hot at the same time. KC, MIL, CLE, MIN, and LAD are also teams showing signs of hitting prowess and with a beatable matchup on tap.
Check out the list of starting pitchers and offenses I created. Once I have found some spots where a lot of balls will be put into play I start dissecting what the hitters can do with those batted balls based on statcast data, parks factors, and weather. Creating a single DFS lineup on a 13 game slate that has a chance to win the tournament takes fearless thinking. If you find a data point that directs you to a certain player, don’t be afraid to act on it. The worst that can happen is you don’t get first place which is the whole point anyways.
| SP | K/BB (Proj.) | OPP K/BB | Notes |
| Freddy Peralta | 31/8 (29/8) | At HOU – 17/9 | |
| Tarik Skubal | 31/4 (30/6) | At ARI – 17/9 | 136 wRC+ vs lefty |
| Nestor Cortes | 23/5 (24/6) | V CWS – 23/7 | 60 w RC+ vs lefty |
| Cole Ragans | 27/7 (25/8) | V OAK – 27/8 | OAK 24/6 vs lefty |
| Bryce Miller | 27/8 (21/6) | At BAL – 22/6 | BAL Higher K% recent |
| Max Fried | 20/9 (22/6) | V SD – 16/8 | SD 19/10 vs lefty |
| Triston McKenzie | 19/13 (20/8) | V MIN – 22/8 | |
| James Paxton | 13/14 (20/9) | V CIN – 27/8 | Dropped K% significantly recently (21/8) – good vs lefty |
| Kyle Harrison | 21/8 (21/8) | V COL – 26/6 | 70 w RC+ vs lefty |
| Christian Scott | 28/6 (24/6) | At MIA – 20/7 | MIA K up recent |
| John Means | 25/0 (20/5) | V SEA – 27/8 | |
| Tyler Anderson | 17/9 (17/8) | At TEX – 21/9 | |
| Kyle Gibson | 19/10 (17/7) | V BOS – 26/8 | BOS Higher K% recent |
| Chris Bassitt | 21/10 (22/7) | V TB – 25/7 | TB More BBs recently, 11% |
| Simeon Woods Rich | 22/5 (18/7) | At CLE – 20/8 | |
| Frankie Montas | 18/9 (21/7) | At LAD – 21/10 | |
| Hunter Brown | 22/11 (25/8) | V MIL – 23/8 | |
| Mike Clevinger | 14/11 (18/7) | At NYY – 21/11 | NYY Dropped K% recent |
| Andrew Heaney | 22/5 (24/8) | V LAA – 22/7 | |
| Kyle Muller | 20/5 (18/10) | At KC – 16/8 | |
| Tyler Alexander | 19/6 (20/6) | At TOR – 21/8 | TOR 17/10 vs lefty |
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Cole Ragans, SP: $9,200 – Ragans is facing a high K team in OAK at a time when regression should be kicking in a bit. OAK has been one of the hottest offenses, but they have seen their team wRC+ start to slide back to the bottom of the league in the last 7 days. This spot is ripe for a true ceiling performance and I can’t fade it.
John Means, SP: $7,900 – Means is just getting back into the BAL rotation, but he has performed well. He gets to face the high K SEA team in his home ballpark which suppresses HRs to RH hitters. This is a nice spot for him and hopefully, he can increase his pitch count and go deeper in this game to truly reach a ceiling score.
Sal Perez, C: $5,400 – There are plenty of cheaper options on the teams I mentioned above, but Perez is one of the best. He has great contact skills and power which is better against a lefty, especially a questionable one.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B: $4,900 – Vlad’s HR rate is really lagging his barrels (typically about half make it out of the stadium) and that really should start to correct sometime soon. He crushes the ball, is on a bit of a hot streak, and faces a bad lefty. This is all a great recipe for success.
Davis Schneider, 2B: $4,000 – Even if he is not leading off, Schneider can be an effective play, especially as part of a TOR stack. His hard hit rates are really good and TOR fares well vs. lefty pitchers. Like most TOR players, his actual HRs really lag his barrels hit.
Willi Castro, 3B: $4,100 – This position is not overly deep today and Castro is one of the few 3B from my list of teams above that I trust for a ceiling type score. He is more of a jack of all trades type player with all sorts of skills that can help contribute to a DFS score. He won’t knock the cover off the ball, but he will be a pesky at bat each and every time.
Bo Bichette, SS: $4,400 – Who wants to waste a SS spot on a guy hitting .227 with only 2 HRs. Well, when you put it that way…no one. How about this? Who wants to roster a cheap SS with a 108 max EV and 96 avg EV over his last 10 games. He will be a part of my TOR stacks.
Aaron Judge, OF: $6,000 – No one can take pride in touting the game’s best power hitter, yet I am dismayed at the number of truly good OF plays today, so I must rely on Judge as a spend up option on my rosters.
Dairon Blanco, OF: $3,400 – I have Blanco on my short list and the Razzball Hittertron seems to like him as well. The matchup for KC is one of my favorite to target and Blanco should contribute with hard hit balls and SB potential.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
No real weather concerns today. As per usual, Atlanta has some thunderstorms around the area that could affect play, but those need to be checked on closer to lineup lock.
Doing Lines In Vegas
The Yankees are heavy favorites. They are at an apex right now in terms of their hot hitting and pitching whose skills seem to lag the ERAs being generated. It’s not extreme, but now might be a good time to stop betting on the Yankees when there is no real way to go but down. The Vegas total for TEX is also high and the O/U for their game vs LAA is one of the highest on the day. Texas is facing Tyler Anderson whose 2.92 ERA should regress more towards his 4.78 SIERA. LAA has one of the best performing bullpens over the last 14 days though. Interestingly, TEX has the worst.
