Only Sacramentoens can make fun of our beautiful and wonderful city, and I hope for my bank rolls sake, the Big Apple shows up in a big way tonight.
We are about a quarter to a third of the way to the point where a smart mathematician will start trusting some of the K/BB numbers being put up. Eduardo Rodriguez will not be a 40% strikeout pitcher because he won’t face the Washington Nationals every start. Babips will come down, throwing some water on some of these hot hitter starts and vice versa for the Eugenio Suarez (.080 babip), Jake Burger (.100), and Mike Trout’s (.121) of the world. DFS is played within this unpredictable environment, and on a 13 game slate (we may lose two games to rain) there are so many different paths you can journey to first place.
What do I rely on when the data is new and success is so fluid? Game Theory. MLB DFS is more about game theory than most other sports. Marcus Semien could hit 3 HRs tonight and be a must start for tournament winners, but how is anyone going to land on Semien with a wRC+ of 9 still? You could read below in my notes about the bad location+ numbers that Bryce Miller has put up so far and roster a TEX stack on the premise that Bryce Miller is going to struggle with command and therefore be susceptible to the powerful TEX lineup.
It is essential tonight in most SE to 20 max entry tourneys to roster a 5 person stack. Ideally, you would prefer cheaper pieces that allow you to pay up at SP tonight. There are only a couple SP streamers I am interested in below 9k. When I roster a 5 man stack I am seeking to optimize fantasy points from all the offense that will be scored by a team. I want to ensure I am playing the guys with the highest upside possible on a large slate. If you check out my SP chart on X later today, you will see that I am targeting players from NYM, TB, ATH, SD, BOS, ARI and the CWS tonight for offense.
While the White Sox are the cheapest, I am not going there on such a large slate. I can roster 5 TB Rays for about $4k per player, ARI for $4.3k/player, ATH for $4.4k/player, BOS for $4.6k/player and NYM for $4.3k/player. The Mets are facing JP Sears in a stadium with good weather. I could see those power hitting bats warm up just a little bit against a fly ball pitcher. TB is playing in their home stadium which often plays like a hitter’s park for HRs and Bryce Elder can produce big innings in a hurry when he is not on. ATL on the other side of that game should enjoy an offensive boost tonight as well, but Taj Bradley is no slouch on the rubber. ATH will face Griffin Canning and have a good shot to be the top offense tonight as does ARI which faces Jose Quintana in his first start. I know Quintana is a veteran, but I also have no idea where he has been getting ready or how it’s gone. I do know ARI rakes vs. lefties (Marte will be missed here).
There are always lots of angles to take on a slate this large and this early in the season. Pick and angle and stick with it. As you’ll see in my picks below, I like rostering two expensive SPs, a cheaper 5 man stack and filling in with one offs or preferably a 3 man stack.
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Jacob deGrom, SP: $9,500 – deGrom has not produced eye popping numbers yet, but his command is on point and he is generating whiffs. Seattle has the whiffiest park there is and I expect deGrom will have one of his better games to start the season. Lefties give him the most trouble, but the only good Mariners right now hit from the right side.
Nick Pivetta, SP: $9,100 – This will be a very popular play simply because COL is on the road after a home series and they are not very good. Pivetta is pitching in a great park and has every opportunity today to make good on his high K rate. This is simply the spot with the most upside today for SP.
Shea Langeliers, C: $4,200 – The Athletics are a power hitting team that also hides some growing on base ability. As a team they have reduced Ks this year and Shea is a big part of that. Who knows if it will stick, but if it does, you can bet that hitting the ball hard a lot more often is going to make for a great year for Shea.
Pete Alonso, 1B: $5,700 – I don’t mind spending up for positions where I know I am getting the best option and everything has looked solid this year for big Pete. His avg EV is 98 mph!! And he regularly gets wood on the ball, reducing his K rate to a miniscule 10% so far this year. I expect the Mets to roll into Sactown, relax in the warmer weather, and rake.
Kristian Campbell, 2B: $4,200 – Campbell’s maxEV number is impressive and no CWS pitcher is going to prevent him from continuing to hit that ball hard. It might be a bit cold in Chicago, but Campbell is a hot hitter and might stay that way all year long. Grab him at this cheap price and low ownership!
Mark Vientos, 3B: $4,000 – There are a lot of 3B that are performing well right now. Vientos should appreciate the warmer air, especially because those hard shots off his bat have a better chance to find the stands. The Mets bats are gonna feast in this series!
Corey Seager, SS: $4,900 – Seager is one of the best in the business when he is healthy, and with him just coming out of his early season slump, we can expect more big games. I prefer to roster Seager as part of a 3 man stack, hoping that Bryce Miller is a little off and the power bats can hit some HRs. I also really like Lindor and Bogaerts.
Lawrence Butler, OF: $4,900 – You are going to need points from your OFs tonight with so many good options, so let’s focus on guys with high upsides. Butler has already shown great improvements this season in his K and BB numbers (let’s see if they hold) and his hard hitting and speed just haven’t quite burst onto the scene yet. I believe he can do it tonight.
Christopher Morel, OF: $3,900 – Part of the appeal for TB tonight is that they face a SP not known for punch outs. Morel does everything right except when it comes to striking out. He should face Elder at least twice tonight and it looks like some of the low K guys in the bullpen are going to be needed if Elder blows up. This is less of a slam dunk, but if I am rostering any Rays tonight, I want Morel in as one.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
There is very little chance they will play ball in Baltimore tonight which takes away a good spot for offense, and the rain in New York is going to put that game (and especially the end of that game) into questionable territory. I was salivating at the prospect of rostering Yankees vs. a struggling Robbie Ray, but alas…there are other spots tonight and one warm park with winds blowing out a bit in Tampa.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Houston has a high implied team total tonight, probably because they face a pitcher who rarely strikes anyone out. Well, HOU has not been great at preventing Ks so far this year and the Angels pitcher has improved his stuff a bit. I am not too enamored with HOU right now, even if Yordan Alvarez is pressing so much he stole a base yesterday!
“Vientos should appreciate the warmer air, especially because those hard shots off his bat have a better chance to find the stands.” Fingers crossed!
It’ll happen and when it does, it can come in bunches.