Often we talk about FanDuel MLB DFS and the night slate, but given that FanDuel does not have a classic night slate, the article below will be about the three-game night slate at DraftKings at 7:05 pm Eastern. Framber Valdez and Jameson Taillon will duel in New York trying to keep Yordan Alvarez and Aaron Judge at bay. Dean Kremer and Johnny Cueto will face off in Chicago, and the night will be capped by Ranger Suarez and the Philadelphia Phillies playing against the San Diego Padres with Joe Musgrove on the mound. With so few games, there are only so many directions to go, but I’m here to help you figure it out! Read on!
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Joe Musgrove, SP: $9,900 – If playing cash games, there’s not much to think about at the SP1 spot. Musgrove is far and away the best pitcher on the slate; He has a 3.18 SIERA (best on the slate), a 26.3% strikeout rate (best on the slate), and just a 5.5% walk rate. The Phillies do have a good offense. They have scored the fifth-most runs, have the 11th-highest OBP, and the sixth-highest ISO. These are good reasons to fade Musgrove in a GPP. In cash games, he will be popular and you just eat the chalk with everybody else.
Johnny Cueto, SP: $6,300 – I do not have a sense of who the chalk SP2 will be on the slate, but it’s between Johnny Cueto or Jameson Taillon. Taillon has a 20.3% strikeout rate and just a 3.1% walk rate but is pitching to Houston who strikes out the fourth-fewest in the league. Cueto has a 19.4% strikeout rate and a 6.5% walk rate but is pitching to the team that has the fourth-highest strikeout rate in the league in Baltimore. Factor in the $1600 discount and Cueto is the pick here. If you find a lot of value bats and end up on Taillon, that will probably be OK too.
Jorge Alfaro, C: $3,500 – He has a .517 wOBA and .455 ISO against left-handed pitching in a very small sample size. Suarez also has the second-highest SIERA at 4.42 on the slate.
Jose Abreu, 1B: $4,100 – His OBP and batting average aren’t far off from the last couple of years, but his ISO is .171 down from .219 last year. Kremer has a 4.63 SIERA and getting exposure to the White Sox and the middle of their lineup is a plus. This could be a spot where Abreu gets going. He has a .391 OBP in the last two weeks.
C.J. Abrams, 2B: $2,100 – This is a position to punt on this slate. I do not love the lefty-lefty matchup, but if Suarez gets knocked around it may only be one or two plate appearances. Abrams has the most talent of the punt-type plays. Rougned Odor ($3,200) has a .190 ISO against right-handed pitchers, but just a .270 wOBA. That makes him an interesting GPP play but a fade in cash games. Bryson Stott or Josh Harrison are also viable punts if they are in the starting lineup.
Ha-Seong Kim, 3B: $3,400 – I do not mind pairing him with Jorge Alfaro even in a cash game. I may not want to play a C.J. Abrams with him in a cash game as playing three or more in the same lineup starts to get risky. In a tournament, the Padres are a good stack and one to consider various combinations based on the lineup that comes out. Kim has a .376 wOBA and .188 ISO against left-handed pitching.
Bryson Stott, SS: $2,300 – Another viable punt situation here. Generally, I do not want to have a batter in my lineup go against a pitcher I have. I will take the guy that has a .100 ISO against right-handed pitchers at a punt price if I have to choose one batter to face my starter.
Aaron Judge, OF: $5,900 – Yes, Framber Valdez is a good pitcher and yes Judge is very expensive but guess what? Judge has a .263 ISO against lefties, which is actually worse than his .379 ISO against right-handed pitchers. That .263 ISO is better than the majority of hitters in the league still. People will be off him most likely. If I am finding value at SP2 and a couple of punt plays at other positions… Why not?
Yordan Alvarez, OF: $5,500 – This is similar logic to Aaron Judge above. He is so good, why not? He has a .484 wOBA and .400 ISO (.400!!!) against right-handed pitching. Playing in New York with that short right-field porch, he is my favorite spend-up of this short slate.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
There’s no rain in the forecast in any of these three games!
Doing Lines In Vegas
I like Houston (+110) tonight.
