13 games is a (good) racket! I am mindful of the fact that the math can be done to analyze the odds of one of 13 games producing 10+ runs, but I also know I do not want to attempt that math. I will build lineups as if one or more games will be “had to have it” stacks that top leaderboards.
On a slate this big you have to get SPs right in order to compete. I rely on my favorite data point K/BB. Here’s a few at the top:
Zach Eflin 13 (22%) – 9k
Shoto Imanaga 10.5 (25%) – 9.6k
Corbin Burnes 5.8 (25%) – 9.8k
Emerson Hancock 5 (16%) – 6.6k
Kyle Harrison 4.8 (21%) – 8.4k
Zac Gallen 4 (28% K) – 10k
Graham Ashcraft 3.29 (23%) – 8k
Trevor Williams 3 (22%) – 6.3k
I like to rate the top DFS offenses on the slate in terms of which teams have the best opportunities for HRs + BBs. BAL leads the league with 37 HRs, sport the second highest wRC+ at 127 (27% better than average), and are facing the A’s. However, this is not the A’s worst pitcher and BAL is not a HR friendly park.
MIL has hit 31 HRs so far this year and they are facing a pitcher with a 20%+ BB rate. They face Luis Gil who has not given up a HR since 2022, but it’s only been 23 IP. Still, not the perfect spot to attack on a 13 gamer. Maybe the other side of that game which pits the Yankees (27 HRs) vs Colin Rea who doesn’t strike anyone out and has a barrel rate at 8%, around average. Let’s check the always potent ATL team who lead the league in wRC+ (128) and have hit 28 HRs. They face Logan T Allen who has allowed a 114 max EV two years in a row and sports an above average barrel rate of 10.8%. ATL is playing at home with the wind blowing in. One other worrying piece of info is that the CLE bullpen leads the league in SIERA so far.
Any of the previously mentioned teams would be good choices to stack, but they all have warts and will be higher owned and more expensive. Perhaps it is a better strategy to take a different team whose particular context on April 26th sets them up perfectly. MIN gets to face one of the worst K/BB performers in Patrick Sandoval with the wind blowing out in LA and a bullpen that has struggled so far with HRs. TB gets Chris Flexen and a White Sox bullpen with HR issues. LAD are a good HR hitting team facing a TOR team with the worst HR allowed record by far from their relief pitchers. Finally, NYM has the wind blowing out at home against an SP who allows a lot of contact.
Any way you pick it, it’s a bit of a crapshoot when picking an offense to stack. I want you to choose a team construction that fits you. Do you want to pay down at SP2 so you can afford a higher priced stack? Fade the top priced players in a stack and look to the bottom of a lineup? What makes the most sense to you as a strategy? Make sure to include at least some of the players I put a spotlight on below…
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Zach Eflin, SP: $9,000 – IF the rain holds off in Chicago, Eflin is my favorite pitcher. His K/BB ratio is always elite, meaning he is only susceptible to the opposing team putting balls in play and CHW have the worst team babip (Batting Avg.) and team ISO (Power) in the league.
Joe Musgrove, SP: $7,400 – There are plenty of pitchers priced in the higher tier that I would select over Joe Musgrove if I could afford it, but this is a play on the regression of Musgrove’s K% upward and a strong home ballpark. Joe will also get 100 pitches if he deserves them, making him even more attractive at his ceiling performances.
Rene Pinto, C: $3,000 – Pinto has a 93.5 EV and a 17% barrel rate (small sample size for sure) and his main issue is his high K rate. Flexen should help him perform at his best.
Rhys Hoskins, 1B: $4,600 – I want players who can accumulate points even if they are not hitting HRs and with Gil’s walk rate being so high, there is solid potential for RBIs from Hoskins. This MIL offense can be potent when it gets going and I want Hoskins in any MIL stack.
Jackson Holliday, 2B: $3,500 – I am continuously waiting for the breakout game from Holliday and it’s coming. This is a great spot against the A’s and lefties in that park fare better than the righties.
Isaac Paredes, 3B: $4,600 – The TB 3B is having a great year so far. His BB/K numbers (reverse is good for hitters, right?) is top ten and among those ten he has the highest ISO. Power and plate discipline against a team with few good pitchers.
Elly De La Cruz, SS: $5,900 – As my god daughter says, “Ellie is the best…” so why not play this Elly. With SS being so stacked with stars, it’s a good idea to roster a star at this position on a full slate.
Randy Arozarena, OF: $5,000 – Arozarena has a .194 babip and a 29% K rate. Strikeouts should not be a problem vs. Flexen, so his 91 EV and 111 max EV can do some damage. Arozarena has the power/speed combo making him very valuable.
Jo Adell, OF: $3,000 – If he is playing again, why not? Adell needs to hit his way on base, but once there he has been super aggressive. Also, Ober is known to give up homers and the wind/weather is helping in LA, one of the few places today.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
It looks like the only troubling spot for rain is in Chicago and that can always change. I live here. The weather is still cold across the US which should help to keep scoring low in most spots. Wind is not much of a factor either.
Doing Lines In Vegas
I can’t get over MIA’s expected total of nearly 5 runs!! I almost touted Trevor Williams. Something seems off there. It is mostly just low totals across the board making ownership of that one team that scores 10 runs mighty important.
Just saw Jackson Holiday was optioned back down to AAA so here’s another couple 2B. Curtis Mead is cheap and will make a good addition to a Rays stack. He is really just “fine”, but cheap and can always steal a bag.
Another more palatable option is Bryce Turang who costs $4,000, but bats in the middle-back of the order, has a miniscule K rate in his last 14 days and a healthy walk rate. He would be a good play alongside other MIL pieces.