The winner of Day 1s 100K contest on DK ($555 entry) had a lineup with a 5/3 construction, meaning 5 players from one team (STL) and 3 from another (SD). The plays were certainly low owned, but neither of the teams really had outstanding games. MLB DFS is a marathon, not a sprint. It is extremely difficult to predict DFS scoring so roster construction and ownership instantly become the more important factors to winning.
With little data to trust this early in the season, it can be extremely profitable (over time) to find ways to roster low owned plays on well constructed rosters when the data is less reliable. Looking at today’s slate I have highlighted BAL, SD, TEX, CHC, TOR, and BOS as offenses that I think could produce big DFS scores based on the opposing SP, Park Factors, and predictions for season long offensive production by team. Judging by Vegas team totals, SD, CHC, and TEX have a good chance to be lower owned as stacks. Those are nice places to start looking.
TEX is facing Tanner Houck who may start the year slow after a rough spring training (results wise) and a 2024 season that ended with a bout of shoulder fatigue. SD has some attractive bats at the top of their lineup (Tatis, Machado, Merrill) that can be paired with a couple other cheap options. The matchup vs. Reynaldo Lopez is attractive since he is due for some regression this year and his spring numbers are concerning. Even in that park, I could see SD stringing together some impactful innings.
I also like the BAL-TOR game as a spot to look for some offensive success. BAL might be over owned after their offensive explosion on opening day, but TOR has some nice pieces that could jump on a 41 year old Charlie Morton whose only decent pitch is his curve.
Find your angle and do not be afraid to miss out on the cash line because playing for first is worth it in the long run.
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Dylan Cease, SP: $9,300 – This comes as no surprise and he will likely be the highest owned pitcher. Cease had a great first season in SD and pitched above his true talent level in spring training (makes sense if the SP is truly ahead of the hitters). There is no reason to believe he can’t put up the best SP score today. It is smarter to take chances at low ownership with hitting stacks than with pitchers.
Jeffrey Springs, SP: $7,500 – One of the things that remains consistent year to year without stadium design changes are park factors and Seattle’s home park has one of the highest K% factors of any stadium. Last night, SPs combined for 14 Ks in 13 IP. Springs should be in a good spot to put up a nice price considered score here. His high number of IP in spring training indicate health as well.
Adley Rutschman, C: $4,500 – BAL bats are going to be popular. I am hoping to capture a hot start to the season (Cs will wear down quicker than other positions so it’s good to pay up early in the year vs. later) at a decent cost. Adley should put up a non 0 score with a much higher ceiling.
Joc Pederson, 1B: $4,200 – One of the premier platoon hitters in the game faces a righty tonight. While Houck tries to induce GBs, Joc is adept at lifting the ball. Pederson is in a good spot tonight, especially if Houck struggles. BOS does have two lefty RPs who could force Joc to be pinch hit for, but that only happens in a close game. I am rostering Joc as part of a TEX stack that hopefully breaks the game open against an unready Tanner Houck.
Jordan Westburg, 2B: $4,200 – Not many 2B eligible players have as much pop as Westburg. Gausman can be had for HRs, especially if he is not all the way dialed in with his splitter and that is what we are looking for in DFS and a HR from your 2B puts you ahead of a lot of other rosters.
Josh Jung, 3B: $3,700 – Jung is known for hitting the ball hard and getting injured. Well, he is not injured yet and he has already had 2 hard hit balls. He is a great addition to a Rangers stack.
Mookie Betts, SS: $5,200 – People are still scared off by the reports of Mookie’s weight loss, but he hit three balls on opening day with an exit velo of 90 mph or above. He still takes walks and should accumulate R/RBI in that Dodgers lineup. He makes for a solid play that should go underowned due simply to bias.
Cedric Mullins, OF: $3,200 – Mullins had 3 balls in play over 100 mph EV on opening day. He has power and speed in this stacked Os lineup and his price is way too low. As a low cost OF, he shouldnt go too highly owned.
Fernando Tatis Jr., OF: $5,400 – Tatis had one of the hardest hit balls on day 1 (112 EV) and it just goes to show that he is an elite hitter who is great when healthy. Buy in at the beginning of the season and get his best self.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Pretty much all domed games today and the others have no weather concerns in sight.
Doing Lines In Vegas
The easiest way to win these early season bets are via SP blow ups or reliever blow ups. We already saw a few of those yesterday that Vegas cannot possibly price into their lines. I think the overs for TEX, SD, BAL and LAD are very much in play because these offenses are relentless and they are facing SPs with concerning spring training results.
