Offense has been hard to find this year in DFS, making hitting on your stacks even more important than ever. The stud pitchers are striking everyone out and I know it is too early to predict a trend, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we continue to see some elevated K rates in MLB. On the other hand, there are a ton of good pitchers to choose from especially tonight. There are so many directions to go. My advice in situations like these is to choose an angle, some data, or observation that you think gives you an edge on the rest of the field, and look for ways to exploit the rest of the slate with that edge. Let’s take a look at some examples.
I publish a table of relevant stats on X in the afternoon most DFS weekdays. In it, I compare K/BB rates of SPs and the teams they are facing. It is a general indicator to start ranking SPs. Today, the best SPs with the most favorable matchups were also the cheapest. That is an edge I can try to exploit by rostering both of them and taking a few shots on the offenses against the other highly owned SPs.
All of the SPs taking the hill tonight have respectable SIERAs this early into the season, but one pitcher has a glaring 7.35, meaning they have absolutely been obliterated so far this year. It coincides with a downgrade in his velo and his stuff so far this year. Now he can always turn it around, but at 36 maybe it is not going to be so immediate. The Baltimore Orioles are a great team to stack up tonight because you can occupy so many different positions in order to fit in 3-4 other players around them.
On the other side of that game is ARI, the favorite. They are also in a good spot tonight as a low K team facing a pitcher, Charlie Morton, who has gotten hit hard so far this year. ARI is another team with plenty of cost saving players that makes a great 5 player stack. Saving money on a stack is great when wanting to attack high priced SPs or studs as one offs. There are a lot of attractive MIL one offs.
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Cole Ragans, SP: $8,100 – This play stands out for its simplicity. One of the premier CY Young hopefuls is pitching at home in April against a team that has never been good at attacking lefties.
Freddy Peralta, SP: $7,800 – I understand that this is ordinarily a weak play. I mean it’s Coors, why take the risk? Here’s why. Peralta has had 3 good starts over the years in Coors (comparable to his success at home with better K numbers in Coors) so I will not knock him for this April visit. COL is also the best matchup.
Carson Kelly, C: $3,200 – Kelly is seeing the ball extremely well right now and obviously knows how he is being attacked and is fighting back. I think Patrick Corbin will struggle after being signed so late, so Kelly should have a good chance for Rs and RBIs.
Ryan Mountcastle, 1B: $3,900 – Per fangraphs, Mountcastle leads the league in max EV this year at 116mph. He has 5 barrels and averages 93 mph EV, but he has not connected on a HR this year. He will and meanwhile, his team will benefit from his good bat control and hard hits in general, especially tonight vs. Merrill Kelly.
Jordan Westburg, 2B: $4,900 – As his price rises, you may want to consider a different 2B that is getting a favorable lineup spot at a low price, but for now, you can still fit him in. Hard hit balls with great max EV portend good offense, especially at a 15% K rate. Oh, and the Os face Merrill Kelly tonight.
Junior Caminero, 3B: $4,100 – There are multiple 3B that stand out tonight, all because they hit the ball hard, avoid Ks, and take walks. Caminero does it at the cheapest price. If you are a bigger spender here, consider Suarez and Machado.
Gunnar Henderson, SS: $5,500 – It is always difficult to time guys coming back from an extended ST, but this is a good spot to continue the aggressive approach we saw last night. Gunnar is a star with a discounted price and possibly lower ownership than his peers.
Corbin Carroll, OF: $5,900 – That is a bit of sticker shock, but the man has been worth it, getting on base at a .380 clip and hitting 3 HRs already. He has not yet stolen a base so you know those are coming. He could put up a big score vs. Morton.
Alek Thomas, OF: $2,800 – Thomas is going to have a breakout season if he keeps contacting the ball with as much authority and good plate patience. I like him in this spot because he will get a hold of a couple balls and the price can’t be beat.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Thankfully there’s nothing that’s going to prevent play tonight. There are a bunch of dome and warmish weather games as well. The one extreme weather game tonight is being played in Wrigley where offense will likely be few and far between even against a couple pitchers we normally like to pick on.
Doing Lines In Vegas
(Mind: This is a ho hum slate with nothing that stands out between my predictions for this slate and the Vegas lines) In Vegas – Freddy Peralta is way underrated tonight. He’s been pitching like a Cy Young candidate and COLs bats are frozen in all that snow. Bet the farm man!
