DFS is such a fast-paced hobby that the quote from Ferris Bueller just keeps ringing in my head. Replace “life” with “DFS” and it makes a lot of sense: “DFS moves pretty fast, if you don’t stop and look around once in a while, you may miss it” As DFS players we get so ingrained in our process that we can miss a lot of the subtleties of a 12 game slate.
For those of us who use the projection systems at Razzball, we are likely not paying attention to some of the obvious statistical corrections that are around the corner. Take a look at some of these stats:
KC is facing Jose Berrios who has a .232 babip, 98% LOB, 8.3% HR/FB
PHI are in LA facing Tyler Anderson – .181 babip, 95% LOB, 1.78 ERA, 5.10 Siera
LAA will get Spencer Turnbull – .175 babip 89% LOB
SEA matches up against Reynaldo Lopez – .220 babip, 97% LOB, 0.72 ERA, 3.8% HR/FB
Every pitcher carries their own averages in those categories (numbers that they should be expected to regress towards as the season wears on), but generally speaking, we should expect pitchers to approach .300-.320 babip, 70-75% LOB, 11-12% HR/FB.
There are a number of offensive players whose underlying stats project better output going forward. Austin Riley and Matt Olson. Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. Yordan Alvarez, who is in a prime matchup tonight. Finally, Christian Walker plays in a nice environment tonight.
The Hittertron projection system likes the following teams for tonight’s slate:
HOU vs Carrasco
PHI vs Tyler Anderson
SF vs Criswell
MIN vs Soroka
ARI and LAD playing in Arizona with an open roof.
The skill of a DFS player in choosing which offensive players to target is to balance the projections with what is most likely to happen based on new data sets. One of those new data sets is looking at regression. Another set looks at a hitter’s underlying metrics using statcast data. Finally, start looking at pricing. Which players who are in good matchups and have been putting together good at bats are still underpriced. It is a lot to try to get a handle on for a 12 game slate with 24 teams to pick through, but that’s why I’ve made it a bit easier for you with some player picks below that meet a lot of these criteria.
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Freddy Peralta, SP: $10,000 – Peralta is the most expensive pitcher on the slate, but he has a lot of things going for him. He has an elite K rate, is pitching at home, and faces one of the most underperforming teams, TB, whose K rate is 25.7% in their last 13 games.
Sean Manaea, SP: $8,000 – Choosing Manaea tonight would side with the Streamonator, which projects Manaea to score slightly ahead of Mitch Keller. It is a good ballpark for pitching and the wind is expected to be blowing in. Manaea has had control issues this year, but I’m hoping regression shows up in a way that helps him throw strikes, get Ks, and pitch deep into the game as Severino did last night vs. this depleted Cubs team.
Patrick Bailey, C: $3,400 – The Giants will be traveling to a great hitters park in Boston and his ability to hit for average with a high line drive rate and hard contact is undervalued at his price. If he is hitting 6th or better in the lineup, he is a good play, especially in SF stacks.
Carlos Santana, 1B: $3,100 – Santana’s recent production has been off the charts and he has been turning those pulled barrels into HRs. MIN gets a great matchup vs. Mike Soroka and Santana should be in the middle of a solid matchup once again. On the other side of that matchup is Gavin Sheets ($3,400) who will hit for a better average than Santana, but is still highly rated by Streamonator for a HR today.
Eduard Julien, 2B: $4,400 – You have probably noticed Julien on lineups at the top of the leaderboards recently. His approach to hitting can seem like home run hunting, but he also has good control of the strike zone and can draw a leadoff walk. While his price has crept up, Luis Garcia Jr.’s ($3,300) has not. He could get dinged for his ground ball ways, but this pick is matchup driven. Jon Gray has been striking a lot of people out to be successful so far, but he is allowing a lot of hard hits, and he has always been susceptible to lefties.
Alec Bohm, 3B: $4,800 – Alec is just another solid piece of that potent PHI lineup. He has been on fire for the past week and that could easily continue here vs. Tyler Anderson, one of the regression targets mentioned above. Since this has now become a two for Tuesday, put the resurgent Maikel Garcia ($4,500) vs regression target Jose Berrios in your lineups as well.
Willi Castro, SS: $3,300 – Castro is part of the surging Twins team that must have started thawing in recent days. He is striking the ball with some authority and the power/speed combo is nice at such a cheap price. For those with a little more money to spend, CJ Abrams ($5,200) is quickly joining the elite at his position and his price is not quite at the ceiling.
Yordan Alvarez, OF: $5,600 – I rarely highlight expensive players, but Yordan is in a great spot. His .212 babip over the last 14 days isn’t very fair considering how hard he hits the ball and his career .300 + babip. He is someone I would spend up for on today’s slate.
Jesse Winker, OF: $3,900 – There are a lot of cheap players you can roster at the OF position tonight, but Winker is displaying skills akin to his days in CIN plus some speed. He gets a good matchup as a lefty facing Jon Gray. Gray has been striking a lot of guys out but has also been giving up solid contact when the ball is put in play. I also like Gavin Sheets ($3,400) and Jo Adell ($3,100) as players who are too cheap for the skills they are displaying.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
This is a long article, but the weather is cooperating today. There may be some rain in the NYM game, but @KevinRothWx says models pregame should be telling – Roof is open in Arizona.
Doing Lines In Vegas
The total for the Arizona game is pretty high which is an indication of two good offenses playing a hitter friendly environment. We don’t have too many of those on the slate and if this game goes over, it could go well over the 9.5 total.
