Friday Night gives us a fun 13 game slate. As always, my process has highlighted a few spots that I am more interested in than others and a few potential spots where ownership may congregate in a way that will make those plays -EV. Let’s look at those ownership spots first.
While I actually like the way this sets up for Atlanta today, I am a bit wary of the ownership some of the Braves players will draw. Why might people be interested in an Atlanta team that ranks below average offensively in the past 30 days by wRC+, has a climbing K rate as a team, and a .250 babip? Coors field often takes care of the K rate struggles and enhances babip. Then we are left with a team that still hits the ball harder than nearly all MLB teams and barrels the ball at an exceptional rate. Jared Kelenic and Orlando Arcia and Sean Murphy are all extremely affordable meaning ownership will likely congregate on these players. I would be wary of playing all the cheap Braves as part of a stack unless in a small field or cash style tournament.
What else can we look at instead?
Ryne Nelson has been getting his Ks looking (7.9% swK) and PHI isn’t going to let that happen. Nelson still has a .328 babip and 90 EV allowed. PHI could put up a big score today.
ATL has a top hard hit rate and low babip. They have elevated K rates. Can a place like Coors solve their two weaknesses?
Edward Cabrera has a 24% HR/FB and his control is bad. SD is a team with a lot of good contact hitters. Can they wait for the mistake pitches and capitalize, especially on a slate where HRs may be harder to find (see the weather section).
MIN is facing an SP coming off a lengthy IL stint. Cobb is a GB pitcher, but MIN has been the best team at lifting the ball over the last 30 days. This is surely a spot with a wide range of outcomes.
BOS is the hottest team over the last 30 days (best wRC+, near .300 avg, hitting the ball hard and barreling it up) and facing Ronel Blanco whose .197 babip is due for regression.
Finally, OAK is a great HR hitting team, especially outside of their home stadium, and TOR has given up the most HRs as a pitching staff this year.
I would encourage you to dive into the pricing at some point today and see what stacks make sense while not giving away roster spots (especially SPs) to plays you don’t like. PHI, for example, is going to be a hard team to stack because of their prices. If you roster a PHI stack, they will really have to carry the scoring on your team. Continuing to dive into pricing, a stack of Atlanta that includes the higher priced players will likely be lower owned as a stack than one with both Kelenic and Arcia. You may want to play it that way if you really expect ATL to be able to carry the scoring on your team.
Although tempting to stack a random team we have a hunch on tonight, I have found that it is best to simply play the better plays, especially on a large slate when ownership doesn’t matter as much. There will be enough players tonight who play hunches or give in to the different biases. Stay the course and hope for the best.
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Jameson Taillon, SP: $8,200 – This is simply a play on the worst offense in baseball. I’m a little concerned that the White Sox may have bottomed out, but the data says this is a good floor play. Even though the Cubs are facing Crochet, he hasn’t pitched more than 4 innings lately and I imagine that continues.
Robbie Ray, SP: $8,600 – He had a hiccup in his second start (when I touted him) but then went right back to his near ace level. I am going to keep rostering Ray while he is this cheap and especially against a team like DET.
Sean Murphy, C: $4,000 – Murphy has been showing some good skills, which we all know he has, but he is still being rostered like he is injured. He should draw ownership tonight, but he should also put up a good score in Coors. I like him as a one off or as part of that stack.
Dominic Smith, 1B: $3,000 – He just keeps on producing and his statcast data is up there with the high priced household names. Smith is a great way to save salary at the position. When the night ends, you may see a lot of high priced 1B below him in the scoring.
Zack Gelof, 2B: $3,100 – I love me some Gelof, especially out of OCo. He has won me a few tournaments this year and even though he bats 7th or 8th, he gets it done in few at bats. A great addition to OAK stacks tonight.
Royce Lewis 3B: $5,000 – Obviously he’s a great hitter, but he gets Alex Cobb coming back from injury tonight and I think MIN will produce. Lewis is priced just below the other great 3B and is a nice way to get different and still possibly roster a “had to have it” player.
Elly De La Cruz, SS: $6,300 – Speaking of “had to have it”, Elly had 42 points the other night. Any player who can do that is worth 6.3k. I like him as a lineup differentiator off of the lower priced Arcia.
Matt Wallner, OF: $4,000 – All three of these OF options are guys who are power priced but have the ability or game environment to lead the slate tonight. I’m not paying up for OF unless I’m stacking.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Temperate weather across the country theoretically will limit the offense, especially blow up spots, so consider that when making stacks. Less HRs in total will make the spots for HRs more valuable
Doing Lines In Vegas
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