I was trying to come up with some catchy way to introduce the definition of a “deep league thought”, but they all ended up in potty humor. Then I reached out to my BFF at Razzball, the Big Magoo, and that ended with him hanging up on me. So I decided to tell you what it’s not, so there is no confusion. It’s not for leagues of 12 teams or less. Of course, this doesn’t include those 12-teamers with 20 bench spots or whatever ridiculous “custom” roster settings the commish decides to use. Seriously though, the 12-team NFBC leagues with 7 bench slots would qualify as borderline deep leagues. The players I will be profiling can be had after pick 250, but most likely 300 and will be either risky young upside plays or boring veterans that may be overlooked on draft day. In years past my good buddy Sky, the DFS guy, would write these up, but since he is on a Brewbatical (yes, he’s taking time away from life to get in touch with his inner hops and barley child), I will be your host. He actually sent me his plaid “host” blazer, but it turned into fat guy in a little coat and now that vintage gem is getting donated to a Chuck Woolery Newlywed Game quilt…

Last season, Aaron Altherr came up on August 18th and in his first four games hit two dongs. Damn, it feels good to write the word dong again. He finished the season with a 25/5/22/6/.241 line and has positioned himself to bat 5th this year behind Ryan Howard. The Phils are on one of the most ambitious of rebuilds and Altherr will get every opportunity to make a name for himself. Let’s dig into Altherr’s numbers so you can decide for yourself… His K-rate (25.5) was higher than league average, but when coupled with an above average walk rate rate (9.9), you get a league average K/BB of 0.39. Being that he has some speed (6-of-8 steals), that walk rate becomes kinda sexy. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Phillies give him the green light this year since they have nothing to lose. His ISO was an insanely high .248 which puts him in really good company. There were only 27 players with a minimum of 150 ABs to have an ISO above .240, and before you go look, yes, I know that list includes platoon bats like Ryan Rayburn, the Smoak monster, the Big Fragu, and JBJ. But Altherr isn’t a platooner, he’s an everydayer looking like some kind of strong bean. Now, do I expect him to repeat that ISO again? Hells no, but I also don’t expect it to drop down to league average (.150). His MLB and MiLB batted ball profiles show an above average line drive and ground ball rate, which should be reassuring to the doubters. But, its the flyball rate at the major league level that gives me caution with the long ball. In the minors this year he was a little over 12% lower, so we need to keep those expectations in check.

Does the hitter fit the park? Whenever I look at a deep league hitter, I always look at the ballpark to gain an edge. It would be too simplistic to just call Philly a hitters park and leave it at that. We know it’s always a top-10 home run park, but did you know it’s the 4th best park (2013-2014) for right handed HR% and was tops in XBHs? Altherr pulls all his homers… literally, not one went anywhere near rightfield last year between the minors and the majors. Bottom line, there is enough in the numbers to buy him on draft day in deeper leagues. He’s got upside, everyday playing time, and as I looked over his numbers trying to find some warts, all I found was a guy that was decent in some areas and promising in others. His batting average won’t be great, but his counting stats will keep him relevant in deep leagues and is a hot streak away from being 12-team worthy. Grey had him as his 80th outfielder and if you read his blurb, doesn’t like him very much. He projected a line of 57/14/63/.251/12, which feels a little light on speed and I think 70+ RBI’s is not out of the question.

I’m taking him in my deep leagues and 12-team NFBC leagues… are you?

 
  1. Ra'zbahl Al Ghul says:
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    I could see a quiet lil Gerardo Parraish 15/15 season from Altherr with 62 rbi, closer to .240 avg. I’d bite late. Nice profile here. *cat calls*

    • J-FOH says:
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      @Ra’zbahl Al Ghul: could be in that realm. You never know with speed, a couple times facing Lester and he can have 6 bags right there. Iif people get on base in front of him he could boost up the RBI totals. I know thats not the most scientific approach, but late flyers are worth it that kind of poor logic. And if/when Howard is out he should be batting clean-up.

    • Yescheese says:
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      @Ra’zbahl Al Ghul: your projection is too close to reality. Real fantasy talk requires more hyperbole!

      • J-FOH says:
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        @Yescheese: get out of here with your fancy words

  2. Chris says:
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    Hello J-Foh… I’m in a 3 keeper, H2h, 12 team league. My keepers are Stanton, Arenado, and Encarnacion…In Rd 1 I have the 1st pick and the 12th, No pick in RD 2… For my first pick should and considering my keepers, should I go with: Bumm, Betts, Marte? Also, If I pick a offensive player in the 1st pick, for the 12th pick, should I consider taking the best available Ace, considering I don’t have a rd 2 pick? Thanks for your input.

    • J-FOH says:
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      @Chris: Take Betts because he will most likely replace EE for next year and then grab your Ace with the second pick.

  3. Chucky says:
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    Have a strong (at least in my opinion ) lineup, 12 team h2h 16 keep Dynasty. How do you feel about the likes of KSeager, CDick and DPeralta as 1st, 2nd and 3rd off the bench in the probable event of injuries to some of the regs, Stanton, Crush, Betts, Votto, Rizzo, Bryant, et.al. .?

    • J-FOH says:
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      @Chucky: I’m fine with all of them. If you are looking at it from a draft strategy standpoint I’d stay away from Dickerson . Fine with the other two.

  4. mike ferrari says:
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    Addisson Russell 2b/ss $1 keeper or Brantley $6 keeper? Brantley took swings today

    • J-FOH says:
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      @mike ferrari: I would need to know more about your roster and settings…to be honest. What’s your outfield like and your middle infield situation

  5. MattH says:
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    Dong!
    You’re right that does feel good. I’ll be looking at him in a 16-team league I’m in on Yahoo. I joined one of your RCL leagues. Looking forward to it. Keep up the good work J-FOH.

    • J-FOH says:
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      @MattH: DONG! Thanks old schooler MattH, he’s great for that 16, I’ll have a few more coming out soon

  6. The Great Knoche says:
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    Meh..Not crazy on Altherr. His walk rate was good last year, but was also his highest except for 260ABs in AA, granted he just turned 25 so maybe something clicked, but if you need full time ABs near end of draft he would fill the bill. Think he has 10/10 potential, but not too much more.

    Brewbatical? Like searching the world over trying to find a better beer than Sam Adams? Or washing kegs at local Homebrew and Bait shop?

    • J-FOH says:
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      @The Great Knoche: an improved walk rate across all three levels in 2015 coupled with a far below league average O-swing % shows me the eye is getting refined. Staying off stuff out of the zone is good. Your 10/10 may be true if he only gets 500 AB’s, but I’m thinking he gets more attempts and those steals will be more than we think. High teens doesnt seem out of the question. This is a deep league play, like Rudy’s industry draft last night he went at pick 320, which sounds about right. And that was a to catcher league, in single catcher he moves up a little. NFBC ADP is around 325

      • The Great Knoche says:
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        @J-FOH: Yeah the ABs could be an issue. Think Herrera only one who gets everyday all the time. Ruf, Asche, Alty, and Bourjos could all chop up the rest. We’ll see.

        Speaking of Rudy’s draft, love his team. Liked Doug Anderson’s team at pick 12 also. Thinking I do not want a top half pick in deep leagues

        • J-FOH says:
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          @The Great Knoche: “We’ll see” famous words of the obstiante

          • The Great Knoche says:
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            @J-FOH: Haha. Might need to add that to the glossary since I had to use the Thesaurus. Grey would probably agree based on my Ian Desmond view from last year.

            “I’m never Wrong from the sidelines!”

      • i like altherr this year as OF6 in 15 team leagues. He went just after I took Carlos Beltran as my OF5. I liked Beltran (and Melky who went next) for their higher floors.

        • J-FOH says:
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          @Rudy Gamble: I have him down as an OF5 in 15 team. But that’s assuming others will have outfielders as utility since all the infielders dry up fast. Just been my experience. I prefer to take a risk for my last outfielder even though I still struggle with my floor vs ceiling inner debate every year.

  7. Yescheese says:
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    Schlop them dongs J-Foh. Pitchers and catchers report! It’s DONG SEASON BOYS

    • J-FOH says:
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      @Yescheese: dong da da da dong dong ice ice baby!

  8. Kung Pao Panda says:
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    Cards still available in Elite League version 2? If so, sign me up!

  9. Lucc says:
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    First, can you advise to the place One can go to derive the park data ? Will very hepful when dissecting Super deep players.

    Many thanks in advance!

    Also, I selected Aeron Altherr last season in my dynasty league, which was preceded by accidentally dropping Jackie Bradley Jr (to fill an active lineup and incorrectly assuming I had first waiver claim).

    So, that being said would you have an opinion oif compared to eachother er right now, which will have more value in a long term dynasty format.

    Many thanks. For any insight you can offer.

    Regards,

    Mike C

    • J-FOH says:
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      @Lucc: for splits I use roto grinders and espn for all hitters.

      That’s a tough one. JBJ took a big leap last year as well. My gut says JBJ but its really close.

      If you keague is really deep I’d also consider some platoony tunes too

  10. Ante GALIC says:
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    Jack!

    You lost me at 20 bench spots! Haha, just kidding, I read every word. I’ll draft him in our league if he’s available around 275-ish. Sound fair?

    Otherwise, ?de donde eres?

    Cheers,
    Ante

    • J-FOH says:
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      @Ante GALIC: de donde eres?…..SGV!

      In RCL he’ll be added and dropped all year. Matt Truss shoukd be coming out with a strategy guide. I can’t give away all my secrets. Okay maybe one. RCL’S is all about the time element. Be there or be be be…I got nothing to rhyme with square.

  11. Lougle says:
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    Draft and stash Max Kepler for $1 in an auction dynasty league? Salaries increase by $5.

    • J-FOH says:
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      @Lougle: he really broke out last year and I like him. It really depends on how many minor leaguers you get and who are you passing on. If you are looking at guys to get the call this year it’s iffy in my book. The sano move to outfield and assuming Buxton gets first shot means rosario has to fail for Kepler to get his. The upside is there buy he profiles in that outfield 2 (ceiling) to outfield 4 (floor) range.

  12. Grey

    Grey says:
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    Definitely will be owning Altherr in deeper leagues, like him, for sure… My lack of enthusiasm is more for 12 team leagues where he’ll be a waiver guy unless he breaks out… You should look at Eddie Rosario for one of these posts

    • J-FOH says:
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      @Grey: thanks boss.

      Ha! Rosario is on my shortlist. My only issue is it might be confusing because I have to be pessimisticly optimistic about his numbers last year but I can channel my inner personality disorder and make it a real head f**k. Kidding…it will make sense…I hope. Spangenberg is on the list too. Ill redirect rosario next.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Cool, yeah, I was surprised to see Rosario’s numbers when I went over him in my rankings and no one will ever talk about him at any site if you don’t here

        • J-FOH says:
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          @Grey: even better. I wrote on him when I covered trash treasure last year and I think he popped into my creeper too. I just remember looking at him every week saying to myself “this will never last…the wheels have to fall off soon” but they never did. But in true razzball spirit I will write it and if he does well I can criticize the competition for not having the sack to put themselves out there. Challenge accepted!

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            24 years old, 15 HR-power, 20 SB-speed… Sign me up in deep leagues

            • J-FOH says:
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              @Grey: I’m with you there.

  13. Shill Team 6 says:
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    Hey bud. I got Altherr in an NL only dynasty at 115. 5×5, 4OF, 3 UT, 28 man roster, 10 minor slots. Do you think that’s a little too early or worth the upside?
    Oswald Arcia going to have any value this year in a 15 team mixed dynasty? Or should I cut bait?

    • J-FOH says:
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      @Shill Team 6: you reached but if you like him then it doesn’t matter. I have a hard time seeing Arcia with at bats. He needs a trade or injury to get an opportunity

      • Shill Team 6 says:
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        @J-FOH: Thanks. Was it about 40 slots too early you think? Do you like him at 150 in NL only?

        • J-FOH says:
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          @Shill Team 6: Im sorry, forgot about the NL only aspect, yeah, not a reach, it was a good slot

          • Shill Team 6 says:
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            @J-FOH: Thanks.

  14. Rusty Trombone says:
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    Here’s the scenario: 12 team, 5-man keeper league. From various trades last year I don’t pick until the 24 spot overall (end of second round). Then I get 2 picks after that in rounds 3 and 4. Then I don’t pick until round 7. Starting pitching tends to go earlier.

    Now, I have Goldy, Arenado, Stanton and Carrasco as my 4 for-sure keepers. I also have Danny Salazar and Lorenzo Cain. To round out my 5 keepers, my question is, should I roll with two Top 20 Razzball starting pitchers (Carrasco & Salazar) or should I secure a second OF going into the draft with Cain? Again, taking into consideration the scenario I outlined above.

    Thanks in advance for any and all responses!

    • J-FOH says:
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      @Rusty Trombone: keep Cain, there is a depth of pitching that is easier to patch together than finding a 1st outfielder and IMHO, I dont even see Cain as am OF1, so I think that is where your needs are. Keep Cain

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