This is my fourth post for baseball this season. Scrolling through the NFBC ADP data, a common theme has surfaced, which is that older players who had a down year due to injury are being left for dead. As Grey so eloquently commented in my Daniel Murphy post, “Eff the olds.” That is the natural state of drafts for most seasons. The allure of the unknown or success in the most recent season usually elevates the cost of acquisition. On the flip side, a down year has many players being tossed into the trash. Those are the players that most intrigue me because the overreaction to the downside is usually so severe that much value is available to be mined. Which brings me to David Peralta of the Arizona Diamondbacks. In 2018, he had a triple slash of .293/.352/.516 and clubbed 30 home runs. As a result, his ADP entering the 2019 season was 115.9. Then he proceeded to hit .275/.343/.461 with 12 home runs in 2019. Now, he’s being drafted as the 258th overall player. This David is no king, but could he provide salvation?

Before I dig into the nitty gritty, context is important. How is your team constructed? What are your needs in the latter stages of the draft? Do you need floor or want upside? Keep all of that in mind when you read any fantasy analysis article. With that said, let’s dig in.

The first thing that needs to be addressed is the litany of injuries that Peralta suffered last season. A trapezius injury in May, then a shoulder injury which put him on two separate 10-day IL stints, a neck injury in August, then finally a shoulder injury which ended his season. He played in only 99 games and accrued 423 plate appearances. The prior two seasons, he played 146 and 140 games and went to the plate 614 and 577 times respectively.

Before the injuries started piling up (May 18th was the first official injury designation), Peralta played 43 games and produced a .319/.362/.544 slash with 7 home runs, 27 runs scored, and 30 RBI. After May 18th to when he was shut down, Peralta played in 56 games and contributed a .235/.326/.385 slash with 5 home runs, 21 runs scored, and 27 RBI.

I want to drop the mic now, but let’s see if we can understand exactly what happened.

He walked more and struck out less. That’s good. The BABIP plummeted from .392 to .273, so that explains some of the drop in average. We know the power dissipated, so the drop in SLG from .544 to .385 isn’t surprising.

Looking at the batted ball data, the increase in the infield-flyball rate, increase in soft hit rate, and decrease in hard hit rate intrigue me. The IFFB% went from 5.6% all the way up to 15.2%. Why?

Looking at the pitch type data, there wasn’t a huge difference in the percentage of pitches thrown. For example, pre-injury, Peralta was seeing fastballs 50.7% of the time. After the initial injury, the fastball rate was 52%. But, but, but…..the success against the fastball was drastically different between the two periods. Pre-injury, Peralta was crushing the fastball. According to Fangraphs, he had a 6.4 value against the pitch. After the initial injury, he was a -4.8 against it.

I then looked at the heat maps for fastball location on Brooksbaseball. Here’s pre-injury:

And now after the initial injury:

Just peppering him with high and away stuff. Now that IFFB% spike makes a ton of sense. Pitchers weren’t worried about him driving the ball out to left field and realized that he was having difficulty generating power to catch up to high-and-away heat. I don’t want to go crazy with posting heat maps in this post, so I will just explain the SLG one to you. Pre-injury, Peralta showed good power when being pitched on the outer third of the plate. After the initial injury, niet!

Steamer has Peralta down for 138 games, 605 plate appearances, a triple slash of .280/.342/.471, 22 homers, 77 runs, and 77 RBI. Rudy has him down for 136 games, 578 plate appearances, a triple slash of .279/.341/.470, 20.5 homers, 80.6 runs, and 74.3 RBI. He’s projected to bat clean up for the Diamondbacks, is still only 32 years old (although Grey the ageist probably hates him), and should be poised for a nice bounceback year, health permitting. Did I mention that he’s being drafted as the 258th overall player???!!! Sure, the home run total isn’t great and the stolen bases are non-existent, but if you need batting average help without sacrificing too much in the home run, runs, and RBI departments, Peralta could be a great value this season. TREASURE

 
  1. Jim says:
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    Traded Kyle Hendricks for him in our 20 team league…. hope you are right!

    • Son says:
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      Me too!

  2. Laura Holt

    Laura Holt says:
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    Hey Son, my deep league post for next week is going to be about guys who you should draft even though they’re boring as hell — will definitely be mentioning Peralta, so thanks for doing the heavy lifting for me with all of this great info ; )

    • Son says:
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      My favorite lady at Razzball!!! I enjoy reading your work. Looking forward to reading your next piece

  3. Grey

    Grey says:
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    First, Daniel Murphy and now David Peralta? Who’s next, Roberto Perez?

    • Son says:
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      Lol. Was thinking Kirk Gibson and whether he can get the Doyers over the hump.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Really liking this guy Fernando Tatis…Not his son, the original…Look forward to your writeup…

        • Son says:
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          They didn’t keep track of stats back then. Sorry

  4. Eric says:
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    Hahahahaha

    • Son says:
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      Clue me in on the joke

  5. Baseball guy says:
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    Was offered my Strasburg for his Devers 5×5 roto League 12 team and separate deal my Glasnow for his Meadows. Which if any would you pull the trigger on?

    • Son says:
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      Redraft or dynasty?

      What’s squad look like?

      • Baseball guy says:
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        Keeper/Auction can keep up to 10 players I only have 6. Stras at 19, Glasnow 1$, McCullers 1$, Taylor Rogers @ 10$, mad bum at 18 and Narvaez at 5, Devers is 15 and Meadows is 2….all can only be kept for 1 year. I would say 30% of the top 40 pitchers are kept

        • Son says:
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          I’m assuming you are looking to choose four from the above listed. If so, then Devers, Meadows, Stras, and Glasnow

          • Baseball guy says:
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            Actually which trades would you take Strasburg for Devers
            Glasnow for Meadows or just stick with Strasburg and Glasnow over the bats?

        • Son says:
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          Gotcha. Sorry about that, asI forgot the original question earlier. What’s your pitching staff looking like right now?

  6. jeff resnick says:
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    Great timing on the Peralta post. Question for everyone – I’m in a 10 team $260 NL only auction league and last year I won it all. I’m entering the draft with too many “high priced” players and I’m looking to get back some auction dollars. I’ve got a $26 Aaron Nola and was just offered a $5 David Peralta, straight up. I like me some Peralta, but his injuries scare me. I happen to have an OF of Yelich at $33 that I”m not dealing, Conforto at $10, Jon Berti at $6 and Brian Anderson at $3. Thoughts? Thanks!

  7. Son says:
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    How many players can be kept?

    • jeff resnick says:
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      12. My offense is kinda stacked – also keeping Suarez at $16 (hoping his shoulder holds up) and Moustakas at $22 and Muncy at $6 as well…I like my offense, but want to beef it up a bit before the auction and then focus on pitching oppties. But part of me likes having Nola entering the draft. don’t know what to do!

      • Son says:
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        My first reaction is that the Peralta owner will probably be throwing him back into the pool, so you may be able to get him for $1 later. Not sure how you guys operate and what the construction of his squad his. I’d try and figure out who he’s going to keep and go from there.

        As for whether to keep Nola or not, who are the 12 you’re keeping and what is the total cost?

  8. jeff resnick says:
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    This league values “name” players who go for crazy high prices in the auction. Goldschmidt went for $42 last year. Rizzo went for $35. Arenado went for $46!! Peralta feels like a steal at $5.
    The guys I’m planning to keep are:
    Suarez at $16
    Moustakaas at $22
    Muncy at $6
    Yelich at $33
    Conforto at $10
    Jon Berti at $6 (or maybe not)
    Brian Anderson at $3
    Flaherty at $2
    Will Smith at $16 (if he’s the closer)
    Joe Musgrove at $9 (or maybe not…the Pirates team scares me)
    Maybe Nola at $26
    That’s it heading into the auction.
    Thanks!!

    • Son says:
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      I like Musgrove a lot this year, with new pitching coach and low price. Tough for me to spend that much on a closer.

      Anyways, you have plenty of money to fill out the rest of your roster. Like I said before, I’m inclined to think that Peralta gets thrown back into the pool. You’d have to do the due diligence on that one. I’d take the chance of being able to acquire him for $1 or $2 over swapping him for Nola.

      • jeff resnick says:
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        Thx!!

        • Son says:
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          Anytime. Let me know how the situation plays out. I’m curious to see what the other owner does with Peralta

  9. Cleo Bot says:
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    Speaking of trash to salvation, there is a player that fits the mold perfectly, yet no one at Razzball mentions him in any article…blog…..confessional…whatever you call these fantasy journal entries.

    This player was injured for most of last year, so ignore his 2019…..

    From 2017 – 2018 he averaged 25 homers and an ops of .865, he’s now healthy at the tender age of 29 and my sweet lord you can get this guy with the last pick in the draft or for a buck…..

    …..Why is no one talking about Scooter Gennett?!

    Get someone to write on Scoot stat. Tanks.

    • Son says:
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      I think I’ve written up Scooter every year I’ve been at Razzball. What a ride it’s been!

      I’m not sure if you’re sarcasm’ing or not, but it’d be cool if Scooter was actually on a team and didn’t get released by the Giants, a team that has one of the worst lineups in all of baseball.

      There. Wrote him up. Ju welcome, mang.

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