Here’s a great thing about fantasy baseball, maybe any fantasy sport, I don’t know. Guys that come up with great expectations, who fizzle out at first, don’t just disappear and stop having potential, but other guys come along, steal the spotlight and overshadow those first guys who had great potential. This induces a buying opportunity. Now that I think about it, it’s not just fantasy baseball or sports. Same could be said for anything or anyone. Think of a cousin who seemed destined for great things, but then was sidetracked by drugs or a fantasy sports problem. If one day he gets cleaned up, he’s got that potential again. Dot dot dot. Unless you’re thinking about him harnessing his potential for selling drugs or winning fantasy sports leagues, because if he gets cleaned of those problems, then he’s not going to have that potential again. Reminds me of the early 2000s when I focused in on buying Apple stock at $12 a share and I was like, “That company was once great and can be great again, so I should buy this stock.” Of course, I didn’t or I wouldn’t be here telling you this. Instead, I bought Boston Market stock shares and they soon went bankrupt and I’m an idiot. By the way, I’m here to tell you never buy stocks on an empty stomach. Either way, I had the idea to buy Apple and that’s all that matters! Any hoo! Dansby Swanson is Apple stock in 2004. He was once great, and can be great again. So, what can we expect from Dansby Swanson for 2020 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

When sorting by 500 plate appearances, Dansby Swanson has the 11th best line drive rate, and the 17th lowest percentage of balls hit with ‘soft’ contact. You know soft contact, that’s like when you dated that one girl for three years because you had to stay with her long enough so you forgot about the initial soft contact when you were both drunk and “that kind of thing never usually happens.” Besides Miguel Cabrera and Asdrubal Cabrera (must be that surname), the bottom of the soft contact list is a who’s who of guys you likely want — Freeman, Betts, Muncy, yadda3. Dansby’s closest approximation for batted ball profile is The Greek God of Hard Contact, Nicholas Castellanos. Call him Approxellanos. So, 25 homers, .275-.285 feels fair for Swanson. Of course, he’s never done those numbers before. If he carried his 37% fly ball rate over with a full season, he’d need a 16% HR/FB to get him there. It’s a boost from his previous years, but, at 26 years of age (in February), his power should be growing still, and a 13% HR/FB (this year) up to 16% feels very doable. Of course, what Swanson has that Castellanos doesn’t is frozen dinner vs. made-a-month-ago-in-a-Greek diner–Wait, I’m back in that Boston Market train of thought. Swanson has 10-steal speed, and Castellanos doesn’t. Swanson is by no means a speedster, but he’s also not flat-footed. He had a higher sprint speed than Ozzie Albies last year, who had 15 steals. 25/15/.280 for Swanson? Okay, prolly not, but that’s way within the realm of possible outcomes. Might not even be the least likely outcome, but more like a 30% outcome. Also, there’s at least a 50/50 chance Swanson hits in the two-hole and Albies hits in the seven or eight-hole. Considering I saw Swanson go thirteen rounds (195 picks; it was a 15-teamer) after Albies, and has a current NFBC ADP after 200 overall while being capable of nearly the same line, that sounds like a major sleeper to me! For 2020, I’ll give Dansby Swanson projections of 82/22/72/.274/12 in 566 ABs with a chance for more.

  1. Dave D says:
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    No comment.

    Uh, in other news, you came around and drafted B. Lowe???!!! Amazing.

    I filled out my OF finally!!!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Why, did I say I didn’t like B. Lowe? If I did, I’ve come around on him

      • Dave D says:
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        I just recall pimping him last year and you were like “meh”. Not against him just skeptical of his early season prowess.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Maybe it was meh, and I worry about a platoon, but I’m in on him this year

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            Plus, was thinking if the Rays face a bunch of lefties mon-thurs or fri-sun, I can bench him

            • Dave D says:
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              I think its a solid pick. He definitely was the best MI left, and you shored up a position in need.

              • Grey

                Grey says:
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                Thanks! Yeah, I took mostly bleh picks during Thanksgiving bc I wasn’t fully paying attention and knew I needed a catcher and RP, so just grabbed them

                • Dave D says:
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                  Tryptophan induced bleh/ meh picks?

                  Hosmer was a very “meh” pick for me. Will get R/RBI but BORING. But my three other OF picks of Pillar, ¡Domingo!, Assveil make me happy. Me likes those 20HR/10SB .260-.275 types.

                  • Grey

                    Grey says:
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                    Saw the Hosmer pick and shuddered a little, his batted ball profile is really something… my only concern with Domingo is the M’s seemed like they might want to try other guys in OF

                    • Dave D says:
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                      I’m going to grab probably three more 1Bs in later rounds that are likely higher upside but kinda iffy, so this was a filler pick. I wanted Walker but he went a few picks earlier. My 2nd or 3rd 1B will likely be my starter over Hosmer. Hosmer will get RBIs and some R but not much more.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Yeah, Hosmer is good to have for ABs

                    • Dave D says:
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                      Domingo’s value will go up a lot after they trade him, which I’m 90% confident they will.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      I would’ve grabbed Domingo about fifty spots earlier if he was somewhere else… imagine him on the Rockies…humma-na….

                    • Dave D says:
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                      Hopefully the winter meetings will prove eventful and free up some opportunities for a few guys whose talent exceeds opportunities/recent performance.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Yeah, that’s the hope but I don’t feel great about baseball free agency right now

                • Dave D says:
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                  Vazquez wont hurt you. Gallegos pick seems risky but he’s an unknown to me. I really don’t trust any thing STL.

                  • Grey

                    Grey says:
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                    I could see the Cards going a different way at closer but RPs this early are really difficult

                    • Hernan says:
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                      I was gonna take Gallegos next turn, very possible CMart is a starter next year, they’re not afraid to give a young pitcher the chance(hicks) to close…, maybe Alex Reyes could somehow be in the mix….

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Yeah, not 100% either… CMart has said he wants to close so we’ll see

  2. TC says:
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    thoughts on Austin Meadows vs Conforto in a keep forever league? Is there a ton of difference in value for standard categories? Also, would Bauer as a 4th round pick and Conforto at a 14th round pick be a fair offer for Corbin as a 10th? Thanks

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Meadows, easily — both have similar power, Meadows has better speed/AVG

      That’s fair for Corbin

  3. Dave D says:
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    Your pick Albright

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Ooh, I gotta look…

      • Dave D says:
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        I like the Yarbrough pick. He has great control. What’s not to like about an SP who walks nobody and still has decent Ks?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, exactly, I’m a big fan of his this year

  4. Harley Earl says:
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    Grey,

    I really like this call here. I totally see where you are coming from and going with Dansby on this one. I think he’s really coming into his own. I saw him destroy St. Louis in a couple of games last May in St. Louis. He had two bombs in one game. He also lit the Cardinals up in the playoffs. I think he’s made the adjustments and his numbers will continue to improve overall now.

    Agree 100 percent with this one. He’s under the radar and could provide huge value at a lower draft spot next season.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, thanks!

  5. The Great Knoche says:
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    Like the Pina 2nd catcher pick. Should be plenty of ABs

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Hope so! Just need the Brewers not to sign anyone

      • The Great Knoche says:
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        Unless they grab uh oh Chirinos don’t think they supplant Pina.

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