You know how when one girl isn’t into you, you date another girl that is a slightly lesser version of the previous girl? With that in mind, as the World Series winds down, Joe Buck will be seen dating Dan Vogelbach. Late night, when no one is around, Joe Buck will still look at pictures of Kyle Schwarber, but Vogelbach is the only one that will call him back. Then you know Dan Vogelbach and Joe Buck are going to get into some huge blow out at the mall that is going to go like this, “You don’t even love me! You love Kyle Schwarber!” Joe Buck will step against a wall, lowering his head, saying, “You’re right. I can’t lie anymore.” Ugh, such heartbreak! So, should we be excited about Schwarber multiplied by 1/2? Mini Schwarber? Kyle Nickelbach? There’s talk Vogelbach can’t play a position, but he’s penciled in as the starting 1st baseman for the Mariners as of right now, so *raspberries lips* to having no position. He’s always done nothing but hit for power in the minors: 23 HRs in Triple-A, while being somewhat of an Adam Dunn donkey-type. Power, no average and a high OBP. He hasn’t yet earned the nickname Ridonkey, but I really want to give that name to someone, so show me something, Kyle Nickelbach! Anyway, what can we expect from Dan Vogelbach for 2017 fantasy baseball?
The following will be assuming at no point during the Mariners’ 2017 season will anyone mention to Vogelbach what the Spanish word for sugar is and he accidentally eats Jesus Sucre. The Mariners 1st base shituation is a mixture of dire and straight garbage so I buy the idea that Vogelbach can get 450+ ABs if he does what he came to do: hit homers. I do think there’s at least a 30% chance that he hits .170 in April and is sent back down by May. There’s risk with all rookies, but maybe a bit more with Kyle Nickelbach. Vogelbach could have a long, Dunn-like career or he could be Jack Cust. Dot dot dot. Cust kayin’. Nickelbach hit .240 in Triple-A with the Mariners and everything the M’s touch turns to meh. He doesn’t strike out all that much, and I’m going to totally disregard his 12 ABs in 2016 when he struck out six times, hitting .083. Of course, if he does it again in 2017, it’s going to be harder to ignore. He looks like he could be a .250 hitter with his line drives and base-to-base approach. As Prospector Ralph said last year, “It feels lazy to compare him to Matt Adams, but he’s a lot like Matt Adams. The potential development of his power upside could spare him that fate. Speaking of fate, I hucking fate Grey!” Hey, c’mon! I agree with PR’s comparison, and the real reason for Nickelbach’s inclusion in the fantasy rookie series is his inside path to 400+ at-bats. For 2017, I’ll give Vogelbach the projections of 52/19/61/.254/1 in 440 ABs.
Bachstreet’s bach, alright!
Ha!
Voggie is the kind of heavy nonathletic player the DH was made for. So you know I love him. He’s got additional value in OBP leagues, and the power jump this year is encouraging.
The power jump looks legit too. 9 of his 23 homers were to the opposite field, and though he played in the PCL, Iowa is one of the weaker hitting environments. So i don’t think the numbers were PCL inflated.
His most impressive skill is pitch recognition, and I would suspect due to his walk rates, which are consistently in the low to mid teens, he’ll be most valuable in OBP leagues. It’s also rare that a player walks as much as he does, while keeping k rates under 20%. My guess is he’ll continue to get on base and hit for average even when the balls aren’t dropping for him. Which is exactly what happened in Tacoma. He maintained a .399 OBP despite his low average (.238) which was heavily BABIP (.259) driven.
Okay, giving Vogelbach one full year, then hypothetical: Vogelbach or Schwarber in 2018?
@Grey: Schwarber, he’s got more power than Vogelbach. I’d be shocked if he ever hits 30, I wouldn’t be of Schwarber did. Vogie will hit for a higher average, I’d be a little shocked if he hits below 270 even in a bad year. He’s not going to strikeout at 30% clip like Schwarber.
They both bout that JUGS Life though.
So you’re still with the Vogelbach comparison to Adams? More upside than Adams?
@Grey: I question if he can turn into a power hitter. If he doesn’t, for standard 5×5 he could end up Matt Adams. In fact Adams showed more power in the minors than Vogelbach. The big difference is Vogelbach has elite walk rates. So my hope is his approach will allow him to blossom at the next level unlike Adams, because he’ll work counts and wait for his pitch. Something Adams never did.
Sounds like more blimpotence than I expected to hear for Vogelbach
@Grey: He’s a divisive prospect for sure. Many think he’s garbage. I just always gravitate toward players that walk and don’t strikeout. If you do those things, the other parts of the game won’t have such a steep dropoff. I view him as someone who’s underrated cause he doesn’t look like a ballplayer. So many will sleep, but the skills are there.
Walk and don’t K are a solid place to start, but in 5×5 there’s mitigating factors that can make either irrelevant… I don’t if ‘not looking like a player’ factors much into fantasy, maybe, I’m not sure, would be interesting to figure out if it did matter
@Grey: I think it does. If Benintendi was built like Moncada no one would rank him behind Yoan. It’s the reason everyone bought in hard to Rusney.
Happens more frequently in dynasty and with prospects, because we’ve all seen a lot less of them in person.
“Happens more frequently in dynasty and with prospects” — I’d contend this is about the only place it does, because once a guy hits in the majors (Ryan Howard, Altuve, Schwarber), no one really cares what they look like physically, except the goof on
What happened to Kenyon Messersmith Sr?
Readers react horribly to him and he didn’t want the aggravation
@Grey: wait? He was a real person. I thought he was an alter go of Tehol
Ha, nope, he’s a pretty successful writer/comedian actually
@Grey: dance cook is a successful comedian and hes not funny.
My buddy who wrote the posts is no Dane Cook… Worked on Politically Incorrect for many years
@Grey: ouch. Thats got to be awkward. He I’m sorry my fantasy children ate your fantasy corpse. I think if there was some fantasy relevance tied in there it would of been different. And this is coming from a much more lenient crowd these days. The old schoolers was a tough racket to crack.
I remember getting emails from old peeps I hadn’t seen comment in years about him and that day in the life guy. I was shcoked. I didn’t even think they read anymore. I guess they just went silent. I still get the random email or twitter DM from time to time. I always have to throw in the “you know I don’t work there anymore” line.
I say bring him back with relevant content. We need comedy besides yours
Yeah, maybe, I liked the irrelevance of it, but others didn’t…Was just too useless of baseball info… He’s done with Razzball, not coming back, not getting paid and getting harassed was just too much…
@Grey: he knows it was called RAZZball?
@Grey: I enjoyed reading the vitriol spewed his way by readers who didn’t have to read his articles in the first place.
New Czarface today. I, of course, like it already.
Nice! Will have to check it out, though I have to admit not fully embracing his other stuff
@Grey: By his do you mean Inspectah Deck and Esoteric? They get a little too comic booky for me but I still like the albums.
And I didn’t hate Kenyon, didn’t understand the anger towards him. When’s the collab with Ken Tremendous? My girl sent me an article about how Parks and Rec predicted the Cubs to win the Series this year based off of actual baseball knowledge.
Yeah, read about the Parks and Rec thing…I haven’t seen the show, was it good? I *liked* Every Hero Needs A Villian…I love Wu Tang, even some of their lesser albums…I haven’t listened to Czarface enough to say definitely love or not, I just don’t know that collab enough to speak on it
@Grey: parks and rec was great. First season starts slow and you have to be able to tolerate Amy Poehler at times
Yeah, I might give it a shot at some point… Problem I have with sitcoms is I never stick with them…I watch a few, think it’s funny, just stop watching…
@Grey: but I wouldn’t classify it as a sitcom. It was like the office outdoors
Ah, the mockumentary format? Gotcha
@Super Prospect Rio Ruiz or SPRR for short: My girl wouldn’t even let me watch the first season. Still haven’t seen any of it.
@Dr. Kenneth Noisewater: it’s low but you have to see when Poehler gets the power haircut. I fucking lost it with laughter
@Grey: I don’t know why you asking if Parks and Rec was good is funny to me, but it is. Yeah I loved it. Never saw an episode before last year, it was my favorite binge. Nick Offerman was too perfect.
I’m an Esoteric fanboy, always liked his punchlines. And yeah, I mean, Wu. My last couple pickups have not been good so I was ready for this.
Ha, yeah, I’m clueless about what I’m clueless about… I mean, I’ve heard of Parks and Rec, but I never even saw 30 Rock until about six months ago, and I liked what I saw, but watching a sitcom doesn’t always rate high on my list of downtime activities, honestly, I’m not even sure why… I have seen every Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt episode and Veep, and love both…
@Grey: I always just assumed network comedies wouldn’t be funny. Wasn’t current on any but I like the Office, Parks and Rec, and now even New Girl.
My girl has stalled on Veep already and it’s grounds for a breakup.
Rudy likes New Girl, I believe…And something with Worst in it, but when I Google Worst sitcom it comes back with the Andy Griffith Show… Cougs stalls on every show we watch, I don’t know why our girls can’t binge
But mine watches the same shoes over and over again. I can’t do that.
Not sure you saw my post last night, you watch Pharmacoepia on Viceland?
I haven’t seen it, never even heard of it actually
Shows….ha, always got them shoes on the brain.
Haha, Asics!
@Dr. Kenneth Noisewater: Ron swanson pyramid is my home screen background
@Super Prospect Rio Ruiz or SPRR for short: Ron jamming the shoe horn in a wall to get his survival pack and then running from Tammy 1 might be my favorite moment.
And Ben Wyatt “Human Disaster” when he was on Joan’s TV show.
Grey!
Great write-up!
a. Is there are an order to these write-ups like from better to worse or vice-versa? Just checking.
b. As you can tell made it back safely to Farchana, USA! SNAFU, SNAFU and more SNAFU!!!
c. Going to sleep (It’s 21h58 here).
Have a nice weekend!
Cheers,
Ante
@Ante GALIC: not to be a herk. But these are tools for you to use with your own evals at some point. As the season grows near and spring training starts we will have a better idea what the situations will look like. Think of these as names to keep in the back of your head after free agency and trades. Situations may be created that block or move these guys into better opportunities. Also in season the names will pop back up based on the reality of them getting called up. Think of these as a college literature class with no tests….or a book club
Thanks! Nah, no order… congrats on making it back! You too!
I really need to get into redundant journalism. I’ve had more than one alert pop up on my phone today giving me the surprise of all surprises. The Cubs are built for more than one title. Can you believe it? They are a young team with a strong offensive core…..get out of town. If it wasn’t for these writers I would have never known this insightfull information. I also read that Mookie Betts might be an MVP caliber player. Shut the front door is what I said upon reading that. Shut the front door
Haha… redundant journalism sounds like it’s been done already — boom tish!
@Grey: this 24 hour cycle has got to stop
This 24 hour news cycle just says the same thing over and over.
@Grey: and that any news, even news we create, espn, is news worthy
Any news is news worthy! Hot take!
@Grey: for 2017 the cubs key to repeat should only be two sentences…..show up and don’t get hurt. OKAY maybe one sentence.
Cubs will repeat next year if they do like they did this year and avoid big injuries. Hot take!
@Grey: they could put a ball cap on a broom stick for a manager and repeat…Badump choo!
If the broom stick had Buddy Holly glasses
@Grey: wait are you saying Gary Busey could manage the cubs to the world series….I’m sold
Gary Busey will be the next Cubs manager, you heard it hear first!
Grey , posting again here like you said
Post 1:
dynasty team
who do you think i can trade Swanson for, SP ?
i have Villar and Lindor at SS…
i can get for Swanson:
T.Roark/Jeff Hoffman SP (#15 in your final 2016 list + upside Rockies rookie)
or
Kyle Hendricks (nice upgrade #8 in your final 2016 list) )
or
Tillman / Hammel (duh :/)
Post 2
same dynasty team, before 2017 season
1) would you pick up Murphy for Wilson Contreras ?
2) would you choose Rajai over Enciarte or H.Perez ?
3) is Shae Simmons ATL RP worth investing in , i’d drop a ‘holds’ RP: Boone Logan
Nick
1. I’d take Roark first 2. 1. Nope 2. Unlikely but maybe, depends on situation 3. Sure
BossMan Sr.,
Just saw new CBS Mock expert draft. Polanco goes 97. Is everyone going to undervalue him again this winter, or was I wrong in thinking that he was breaking out into the superstar you told us he’d be before the injuries sapped his second half? I seem to remember him being a top 20 player until he got hurt.
Sorry for the lack of posts – the Cub insanity took over. Javy being the MVP of the two rounds was too much, then when Bam Bam got added to the WS roster, I just lost my mind.
Haha, congrats on the Cubs win! I think that’s low for Polanco, but I don’t think he’s going to be the top 20 player I expected either. Maybe closer to top 50-60…
Grey,
Wanted to thank you for all your help this season, between your projections, podcasts and preseason write ups you really helped give me a competitive advantage in abusing value in players. As it’s now the offseason in my keeper pool i have some decisons to make an can franchise 1 of these 2 players. who would you rather have for 1 year the below price tag :
JD Martinez – $22
Will Myers – $35
Thanks again for all your help.