You need to disabuse yourself of thinking of sleepers like Hayden Birdsong (watch Birdsong have the best season known to man now that I’m pointing him out). Hayden Birdsong can be good (oh, he’s definitely going to be great now that I’m saying this), but Birdsong’s command is a mess (he’s going to have the most pristine walk rate now that I’m saying this). You can mess with guys who have terrible command, but they’re gonna mess with you right back. I’ve been saying this for a couple years now, but I will splash a little refresher in your cocktail of intellect. With the pitch clock, a pitcher who lets a guy get a free pass has just turned that hitter into a walker and turned that walker into a runner and turned that free pass into a double. Top echelon command is what I want, especially when I’m looking at sleepers. I’ve said this before too, but we’re getting reacquainted, so if I may: When it comes to hitters, I don’t mind high upside sleepers. Eff it, swing and miss, go for broke. But because I wait on starters, I tend to want pitcher sleepers who are safer vs. more upsidey, i.e., Michael Wacha is a ton more interesting to me than Kumar Rocker (they’re being drafted near each other). So, safer and command specialists brings us to Cody Bradford. So, what can we expect from Cody Bradford for 2025 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
PSYCHE! My 2025 fantasy baseball rankings are all on Patreon. Don’t wait for the rankings to come out next month. Anyway II, the Cody Bradford sleeper:
Last things first, Cody Bradford is currently being drafted at the tail-end of 12-team leagues in the 275-ish range. That’s a steal and he’s why, said like a former game show host on an infomercial. Cody Bradford threw 76 1/3 IP last year with a 3.54 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 1.5 BB/9. The 26-year-old has 132 1/3 IP in his career with a 1.7 BB/9. Dude is what they call a strike-thrower. He had a stress fracture of his ribs, couldn’t get to Tony Roma’s apparently, and missed May thru July. He had an insane April and August, basically. Bradford’s 10 starts through September 5th: 2.40 ERA, 54/9 K/BB, .179 BAA, .214 OBP (lol, cmon), .307 SLG and .521 OPS. September was not his best month: 4.43 ERA, .452 SLG, but it was also his best month at limiting Hard Contact, and it was only 20 1/3 IP with a high-ish BABIP. In other words, September was a small sample and he was a tad unlucky.
Cody Bradford works primarily off his four-seamer that is clocked, by an hourglass, at 89.8 MPH. If you’re wondering why no one wants him, that’s likely your reason. It’s hard to get excited about an 89 dribbler. Are we sure he’s not a righty and accidentally throwing out of his left arm? That sad, unfortunate really, 89 MPH fastball–can we call it fast–induced a batting average against of .185. Okay, I’m listening. He had the 16th best “fast”ball. About the same as Mason Miller, who throws 110 MPH. The 15th best fastball was George Kirby, who also does not throw fast. Ya know what they share? Impeccable command. If you can locate your pitches, it really doesn’t matter if you’re throwing 99 or 89. Okay, if you throw 99 and locate, then you’re Tarik Skubal. Bradford is not Tarik Skubal. Look at the company Bradford is keeping with his 4-seamer:
I purposely try not to curse. People have work filters, there’s better ways to express one’s self. With that said, holy f*ck, Cody Bradford’s company with his 4-seamer. Effin’ fudge, that’s good. He throws three other pitches, his change is also solid (.210 BAA), and his curve and slider are pretty meh, but he throws them a combined 20% of the time. When your “fast”ball is that good, you don’t need much else. On that list alone, Wheeler, Kirby, Castillo, Miller and Kirby are five of the top seven most used 4-seamers in baseball (and that was sorting by starters, but there’s RPs on this list). Even if we only get 140 IP and 8.2 K/9 from Bradford, at his current price, he is most no-brainer-y 5th fantasy starter you’re gonna find, because he’s going to return fantasy number three value. For 2025, I’ll give Cody Bradford projections of 10-8/3.67/1.11/126 in 139 IP with a chance for more.
