Good day, everyone.
I’m kind of taking the easy way out this week when it comes to highlighting an up-and-coming dynasty player. That is because Chase Burns is not up-and-coming. He fits the parameters in that he is young (23) and barely established as a major league pitcher.
But he has arrived and is showing why he was one of the top pitching prospects in baseball ahead of the 2025 season and needed less than one full season in the minors before reaching the majors with the Cincinnati Reds.
So let’s take a look at why Burns is an up-and-coming dynasty player.
The Stats
| YEAR | LEVEL | G-GS | W-L | IP | ERA | WHIP | H/9 | BB/9 | K/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-24 | NCAA | 51-38 | 23-6 | 252.1 | 3.21 | 1.046 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 14.6 |
| 2025 | A+|AA|AAA | 13-13 | 7-3 | 66 | 1.77 | 0.773 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 12.1 |
| 2025 | Reds | 13-8 | 0-3 | 43.1 | 4.57 | 1.315 | 8.5 | 3.3 | 13.9 |
| 2026 | Reds | 11-11 | 7-1 | 64.1 | 1.96 | 0.964 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 10.1 |
Burns was originally drafted by the San Diego Padres in the 20th round of the 2021 draft. Instead of signing with San Diego, Burns decided to head to the University of Tennessee, where he pitched for two seasons and went 13-5 in 35 appearances (22 starts) with a 3.55 ERA and 1.129 WHIP.
After his sophomore season, Chase Burns transferred to Wake Forest, becoming one of the most dominant pitchers in college in 2024. In 16 starts, he went 10-1 with a 2.70 ERA and 0.920 WHIP. He struck out 191 batters in 100 innings of work and allowed only 5.6 H/9 to go with his 17.2 K/9 rate. And he did this while walking only 2.7 hitters per nine.
With the second overall pick of the 2024 draft, the Reds selected Burns and have been happy ever since. He did not pitch in the Cincinnati system after the 2024 college season ended, but in 2025, Burns pitched on three levels and then finished the season in the majors with the Reds, and is now one of the top pitchers in the majors. And Burns has established himself by keeping it simple – he basically uses two pitches with a changeup sprinkled in here and there.
The Tools
- Four Seam Fastball: 57% | 98.1 mph
In an era where it seems pitchers throw more and more breaking balls, it is refreshing to see a pitcher have a great fastball and throw it over and over and over. That is what Chase Burns does as he has a 4-seamer that sits at 98 mph, and he throws it 57% of the time.
Why mess around when you can dominate with your heater? This year, opposing hitters have only a .191 average and .322 SLG against Burns’ fastball. The pitch is pretty straight as it has 3.9 inches less tail vs. RHP, but it stays up in the zone as he creates 2.7 inches more rise. This has created a whiff rate of 21% against the pitch
- Slider: 36% | 90.9 mph
When not throwing his fastball, Burns is throwing his slider. Because Burns throws the slider so hard, it does not act like the typical slider in that he has 1.3 inches less break vs. RHP. But what it does have is 0.8 inches more drop. Add in the fact that it is 8 mph slower than his fastball, and his slider is basically the mirror image of his changeup.
No matter how it looks, it is an effective pitch as opposing hitters simply can’t touch it. They have a .137 average and .275 SLG against the slider with a 53% whiff rate. In 102 at-bats, Burns has racked up 50 strikeouts with his slider.
- Change: 6% | 90.0 mph
As mentioned above, I called Burns’ slider the mirror image of his changeup. Why? Well, that is because Burns throws his change at 90 mph. The only difference is that instead of breaking away from right-handed hitters, it bores into their hands. Burns’ change would likely be called a sinker for a lot of other right-handed pitchers, and it averages six inches less drop as it comes in a little higher in the strike zone.
As you can see from the heat map below, Burns attacks the strike zone high with his fastball and then either goes away with his slider. Once you are looking away, away, away, he drops in the change on the inside edge.
- Curveball: 0.1% | 81.9 mph
To say Chase Burns throws a curve is not really accurate. As of Thursday, he has thrown the pitch only once. It was a ball.
The Results
Since being drafted by the Reds, the results on the mound for Burns have been outstanding. As I mentioned above, he flew through the minor league system last year. He started the season at High-A Dayton and posted a 3.09 ERA and 0.857 WHIP with 15.4 K/9 rate before being promoted to Double-A Chattanooga. There, he started eight games and went 6-1 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.714 WHIP to go with an 11.8 K/9 rate.
The Reds figured there was no need to keep him in Double-A, so up to Triple-A Louisville Burns went. All he did there in two starts was post a 2.19 ERA and 0.892 WHIP. In 12.1 innings of work, he struck out 14 and allowed only four walks.
Burns’ stay in Triple-A was short as he was recalled to the majors and made his debut with the Reds on June 24 against the Yankees. In five innings of work, he allowed three earned runs on six hits but struck out eight with zero walks. The rest of the season was hit and miss for Burns as he ended the year with a 4.57 ERA and pitched out of the pen in September as the Reds wanted to limit his workload.
But the Reds were not afraid of using Chase Burns in the postseason, and he appeared in one game, going 1.2 innings with no hits or walks allowed with one strikeout.
The Verdict
If you have to ask if you should try to get Burns, then you shouldn’t be playing dynasty baseball. Burns is a work in progress, as it is highly unlikely that he will continue to rely on only two pitches 93% of the time. But the right-hander has already made adjustments to his approach this season.
After joining the Reds last year, he still relied on his 4-seamer and slider with the change mixed in, but he also threw his curve more, as well as a sinker. The sinker, which averaged 100 mph, has been shelved this year, and the curve has basically been sidelined as well. He has increased his usage of the change, and I expect his usage to increase as it pairs well with his slider.
Burns’ ability to make adjustments and the fact that he simply has overpowering stuff make the task of acquiring Burns very difficult. He is rostered in 98% of Yahoo leagues and 96% of ESPN leagues. In Fantrax leagues, he is rostered in 100% of leagues.
What this means is if you don’t have Chase Burns on your team, you are going to have to give up a lot in a trade. It is not impossible, but be prepared to give up a lot. If you have Burns on your team, keep him. The only way I trade Burns is if I completely “win” the trade. He is that good.
Thanks!
Thank you for reading, and come back again next week.
