I nearly didn’t write this post, because, even as I write this in November, Carlos Carrasco seems overhyped for a sleeper.  So, a big part of the equation, will a guy be more valuable than his draft spot, hence be a sleeper, work for Carrasco?  I’m not entirely sure.  There’s no ADP data right now.  Since I think Carrasco could be a top 20 starter by the end of 2015 and I don’t think he’s going to be ranked near that, then he’ll likely still have his sleeperitude.  Carrasco can teach us a good lesson and you know I’m hot for teacher.  Carrasco exemplifies why it’s nice to look at a guy like Trevor Bauer, Randall Delgado or any young pitcher, but not to expect too much.  Carrasco was a sexy prospect in the Phillies system back in 2009, and only now four years later is it appearing that he could actually become what we once thought of him.  And by ‘we’ I mean me.  Because I’m not embarrassed of my past mistakes, here’s what I wrote five years ago, “Pursue Carlos Carrasco in your 2009 fantasy drafts.  All of them.  Hold on, I’m bring out the caps — ALL OF THEM.  Now don’t make go get the exclamation mark.  If Carrasco doesn’t make the club out of spring training, he’ll soon be there and will make an impact.  If he does make the team but only as a long man out of the bullpen, he will soon be starting. Don’t worry about what the Phils will be saying out of spring training.”  And that’s me making myself blush!  I jumped the gun a tad on that.  If Carrasco and I were in Deadwood, Carrasco would’ve just turned to about face when I shot him in the back, that’s how much I jumped the gun on him.  I obviously underestimated how much the Phils would Mr. Bungle their entire team.  Anyway, what can we expect of Carlos Carrasco for 2015 fantasy baseball and what makes him  a sleeper?

Last year, he put up 9.4 K/9, 2.0 BB/9 and a 2.66 xFIP in 134 IP.  Those numbers essentially make him a candidate for a top 20 SP even if his name were Bartolo Colon.  If Carrasco were throwing 89 MPH with those numbers, then I’d give you a series of caveats and why he shouldn’t have been so good.  But, as I knew back in 2009, and that which has not changed (“and that which?” Move over, Jive, I have a new 2nd language, it’s English.), Carrasco throws hard.  Last year, he averaged 95 MPH on his fastball.  As with most guys that throw fast, his control had been an issue when he was younger, but last year he barely walked two guys per nine (officially 1.95 BB/9 — rounding is for sandpaper!).  I’ve hit on this before, but it’s worth repeating.  An easy way to judge a pitcher is take a pitcher’s K-rate and walk rate and subtract them.  If the difference is 5, then the pitcher should be usable.  If the difference is 6, then they are ownable in every league and solid.  If the difference is 7, then they have a chance to be an ace, i.e., Carrasco could be an ace.  The only thing stopping Carrasco is his lack of a track record.  To go with a 95 MPH fastball, he has an 88 MPH change that falls off the table.  His change is so nasty — Game Show Refrain, “How nasty is it?!” — he threw it 241 times last year, and he gave up one double and 8 singles, and had a .173 BAA. Oh, then he has a slider that has a .126 BAA.  His slider causes a swinging strike 27.6% of the time.  Sound good?  Yeah, Kershaw’s is only 29.6%.  I just got goose pimplies.  A pitcher’s ability to get swinging strikes is paramount to Ks; Carrasco was the fourth best in the league at getting swinging strikes for every starter with at least 130 IP.  Could he be another Kluber?  Well, if he would’ve had another 90 IP, he would’ve been Kluber last year.  That could be his only drawback.  I’m not sure how many innings he will throw in 2015.  I’m going to guess 190 IP and give him the projections of 13-6/3.27/1.09/192.  Yes, that’s the numbers of a top 20 starter.  Let the feeding frenzy begin.

  1. Justin says:
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    Next 3 years, how do scherzos and Kluber stack up?

    • The Thumb says:
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      @Justin: Kluber! Scherzer strikes me as a guy who’s not going to age gracefully, kind of like Verlander and CC in recent years. Once that velocity goes or his jerky mechanics lead to an injury, it’s all going to snowball out of control with him. Kluber’s also 3-4 years younger.

      • Gonzo_The_Great says:
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        @The Thumb: Seconded. Kluber and it’s not even close. Not sure who is going to pay Scherzer the dump truck full of money (looking your way Yankees), but I think it’s almost a foregone conclusion the contract will be too long and he won’t be effective at the end of it.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Justin: Tomato-tomahto… I’d go Scherzer…

  2. Chip Douglass says:
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    Grey,

    12-team H2H keeper league, 10- cats (hr,r,rbi,sb,ba/era,whip,w,k,s).

    It’s an old CBS roster set-up where we have 3 OF & DH … 5SP, 2 closers

    We keep SIX and most of my guys are slotted in early rounds:

    McCutch – R1
    Kershaw – R2
    Braun – R3
    Posey – R4
    Price – R5
    Desmond – R12

    Question is, would you trade Desmond (R12) for Bautista (would slot into my R6 pick)
    OR, trade Kershaw for Cano or Baustista (either guy would occupy Kershaw’s old slot)

    Or sit tight?

    Thanks!

  3. Quimmy says:
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    We are on the precipice of January Gray!

    Keeper question. I’m going all arms. Here are the scoring cats:

    W, QS, K, ERA, Whip, K/9, INN, S

    I have to choose 5 of the following: (with draft picks cost)

    Cobb Rd 12
    Iwakuma Rd 9
    Gio Rd 8
    Anibal S Rd 13
    Carrasco Rd 25
    Stroman Rd 25
    McHugh Rd 25

    I’m leaning Cobb, Iwakuma, carrasco, stroman and mchugh

    Thoughts?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Quimmy: Right now, I’m sobering January Grey up after a 11 month bender… Cobb, Iwakuma, Carrasco, Stroman, McHugh

      • quimmy says:
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        @Grey: @Grey: Zoinks! THX

      • quimmy says:
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        @Grey: Forgot to mention i also have Mike Fn Fiers and Odorizzi too, both at rd 25 cost. Would you keep either of them over McHugh or Stroman?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Likely would go Fiers over McHugh due to perception, but they’re a toss up…

  4. UL's Toothpick says:
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    after 12 drafts, ADP is 128 in NFBC 15 team draft & hold format, pitcher #39, & #29 starter…

    going right after Gio, DeGrom, Wood , Ross, Iwakuma, & Arrieta and before Ventura, Tanaka, Lynn and Richards…

    went as high as pick 106 and low as 163

    • de nachos says:
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      @UL’s Toothpick: Great name and avatar. The Phils/Royals World Series is my earliest memory of baseball.

      • SwaggerJackers says:
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        @Grey: Scouring some other early site rankings for Carasco:

        Scott White @ CBS has him ranked 21 for SP
        Al Malchior @ CBS – 31 for SP
        Ray @ FakeTeams – 35 for SP
        Tristan @ ESPN – 45 for SP

        He’s not a deep sleeper but there could certainly be some value here.

        Grey – How high overall would you take him?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Likely around 20 overall

          • SwaggerJackers says:
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            @Grey: So 20 overall for pitchers…but how high overall in the draft? 80? 90?

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Number 20 SP is around 75 overall

  5. gareth says:
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    The only thing of concern with Kluber and Carrasco is track record. I can live with that.

    Bauer and Salazar are young and talented but can be frustrating. They have the talent but it’s a case of them putting it together consistently.

    Floyd and House can be solid, if unspectacular.

    Tomlin and McAllister are AAA depth/long men out of the bullpen.

    They may fall flat on their face as the division has made improvements, but the Indians look pretty strong heading into 2015. They could use another productive right hand bat, and Swisher, Bourn and Kipnis need to play to the levels they have shown in the past – but overall I can’t wait for the start of the season to see what this team can do.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @gareth: Swisher and Bourn are done, and that’s fine as far as the Indians are concerned…

      • J-FOH says:
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        @Grey: talking about Indians is like catnip.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yup

  6. gareth says:
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    Guys like Arrieta, Degrom, Carrasco, McHugh, Keuchel, Richards and Quintana made big leaps last year. Just have to find more bargains in 2015!

    We need a new a mantra (“pitching is so deep” is sooooo 2014!)

  7. Q says:
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    January Grey….

    …..so close…..

    Must. Scratch. Catcher. Itch……

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Q: Don’t scratch it!

    • gareth says:
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      @royce!: I dislike both Myers and Country Music. The song sounds like an amateurish misogynist TV commercial jingle.

      • royce! says:
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        @gareth: Perhaps…but now I want a kegerator…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @royce!: There’s one singer you don’t heckle!

    • de nachos says:
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      @royce!: sure to be a hit with the ladies

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Ha!

  8. gareth says:
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    New year’s resolutions for 2015?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @gareth: Use less parentheticals

      • de nachos says:
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        @Grey: nice, i’m going with use fewer elipses…

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Me too…

          • de nachos says:
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            @Grey: and learn to spell ellipses…darn those double consonants…

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              I’m going to stop using double consonants completely… How’s dem aples?

              • de nachos says:
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                @Grey: i aprove…(totaly)

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  I’m not even going to use any of the same two consonants in any word! Beat tha!

                  • de nachos says:
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                    @Grey: the quick brown ‘stache jumped over the Jazy-FOH, sir.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Awesome… Don’t make me forbid myself from pangrams too!

              • J-FOH says:
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                @Grey: *looks up ellipses* I’m going to night school and taking an English class.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Ha!

  9. Gonzo_The_Great says:
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    Dammit Grey- I was hoping no one paid attention to what Carrasco did at the end of the season. (I guess more accurately, I should say I’m hoping no one in my leagues paid attention to it.)

    The only other guys I’ve got on my sleeper list that you haven’t hit already are TJ House and Matt Shoemaker. Should I be expecting them in the days to come? (Maybe not on Shoemaker since you had him in your Top 40? Just feel like he’s a guy that didn’t get a lot of love in fantasy circles because he started the season as a middle-reliever.)

  10. Matt says:
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    I traded Cishek for him in a dynasty league. Can I have at myself?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Matt: Go for it!

  11. Timmy says:
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    Abreu and Sale or Goldy and Bum???

  12. Jim says:
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    With the K/9 and BB/9 differential, what is a reasonable amount of the 7, 6 , and 5 differential pitchers that you should you own?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Jim: Depends on the league parameters

  13. J-FOH says:
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    Vietnamese sandwiches are the best. Any thoughts?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I love them when I’m craving them, I don’t crave them that often… Also, I’ve had a few that have been totally wrong… I like pho better…

      • J-FOH says:
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        @Grey: I known you hate orange county. We all do. But that Lee’s sandwiches is amazing for a chain. That grilled pork is dyno…MITE!. But the beauty is good ones I’ve gotten are cheap as a motherf**ker

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Lee’s? Never heard of it, I don’t think

          • J-FOH says:
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            @Grey: best thing in the OC, even better than the MILF’s. The bread is fantastic. Even the regular sandwiches like the ham and cheese are great. The closest to you are either off the 710 or up in the valley.

            http://www.leesandwiches.com/main.php?act=store

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              If I were still down there regularly I could see eating there… I wouldn’t travel for that though…

              • J-FOH says:
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                @Grey: I’ll bring you one

        • Mr. Han's Militant Vegans says:
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          @J-FOH:Right? Holy EFFIN mackerel those sandwiches are good. Had most of the menu and never had a bad sandwich.

            • Mr. Han's Militant Vegans says:
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              @J-FOH: I wasn’t always a vegan. Besides, this vegan lifestyle is getting more and more difficult. Seriously, how much can you do with greens and tofu? I’m going back to beer and dogs!

              • J-FOH says:
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                @Mr. Han’s Militant Vegans: there is this sot called el toro burger in santa ana that might make you come back to the right side

    • JeF With 1 F says:
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      @J-FOH: Thats a creepy Picture of you

      • J-FOH says:
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        @JeF With 1 F: got a lot of down time and a make yourself into a zombie app.

        • JeF With 1 F says:
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          @J-FOH: Ahh nice ill have to give that a shot

  14. Peter Stanickek says:
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    I’m in a 12 team keeper and have the first pick in a minor league draft. Who do you recommend? Joey Gallo or Rusney Castillo?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Rusney

  15. joe says:
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    James Paxton or carrasco?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Carrasco

  16. JeF With 1 F says:
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    Gimme some of that Hot Carrasco Sauce

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      99% vinegar and hot peppers, 1% smoke

      • JeF With 1 F says:
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        @Grey: MMM tasty

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Ha

  17. Sky

    Sky says:
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    Ah yes, Hot Carrasco Sauce. He’ll be interesting on draft day. The believers are probably going to push his draft stock up to round 8 or 9. The disbelievers just aren’t getting him.

    • PK says:
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      @Sky: Reminds me of Salazar last year.

      • Sky

        Sky says:
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        They’re very different pitchers. I don’t think the comparison is valid unless you’re talking strictly about draft day fervor. I could see that but think Carrasco has enough of an arsenal that he can succeed with the velocity to exceed expectations.

        • PK says:
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          @Sky: Talking about the fervor, not the actual pitchers.

          • Sky

            Sky says:
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            Gotcha. At least with Carlos, the fervor has a bit more of a baseline to be intrigued by him with. Still think Salazar can work out but he may need another year of development, especially secondary pitches.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, sounds like the believers might be even pushing him higher…

      • Sky

        Sky says:
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        Yep, I’ll just sit back and sadly watch him sail by. But I’ll get me some Collin McHugh later and be satisfied.

          • Sky

            Sky says:
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            Sounds about right. Good read.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, or about 20 other pitchers…

          • Sky

            Sky says:
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            I don’t know about 20, personally. I don’t mind him in top 20 for pitchers overall. Top 5? Ridiculously aggressive. But I don’t think it’s crazy to see him as a top 20 or top 15 guy based on the K/9 and BB/9, at least for fantasy purposes.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              What don’t you know about 20, I don’t follow… Yeah, top 5 is silly, just trying to stand out for standing out purposes…

              • Sky

                Sky says:
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                Maybe I misread what you said. Sounded like you’d take 20 other pitchers over Carrasco. I think he’s Arrieta’ish so maybe at worst the 20th pitcher off the board, at best 15th.

                Whoever did him in the top 5 is an attention whore.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Oh, I see… Nah, I didn’t mean that… Yeah, top 5 is ludicrous… Kershaw, Kluber, Price, Strasburg, Sale…Without even thinking hard…

                  • Sky

                    Sky says:
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                    Yep, not to mention the King MadBum or Price who all deserve top 10 recognition on most boards. I don’t mind Carrasco in the 8th but if he starts bleeding up, the value is just not there.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Yup, totally… Greinke, Lester, Zimmermann, to name a few more… I mean, can Carrasco even throw 200 IP next year?

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
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                      I think he can. Maybe he only throws 180. I don’t think the IP by game factor from Magoo’s statement has enough statistical merit to worry about the innings, personally. But again, if he falls down that far outside of the top 20, he’s a great upside play. He checks a lot of boxes in terms of what you look for those top 10 type pitchers. Just doesn’t have the history to put him there.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Yup and yup… I don’t feel comfortable with projecting more than 190 IP, but there’s that chance since he is old enough that there shouldn’t be major restrictions on him.

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
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                      Yeah, it’s what I was thinking. Age coupled with not really having major IP restrictions. I think he’ll be fine in that regard. After analyzing all the fantasy aftermath, it’s amazing to see how much IP plays into rating a players’ worth.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Yeah, definitely… A guy regularly throws 220 IP and his Ks are gonna look good even if he’s a 7 K/9 guy (thinking Wainwright)….

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
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                      Definitely and it of course ups the W% factor as well. BTW, Yusmiero Petit is consensus 53 SP off the board right now. Mike Fiers is SP70. Got me like

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Ha… That’s likely due to such little mock data…

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
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                      nah, I’m going off a consensus ranking site. THere’ll be some updates but all rankings are from this month and no earlier than December 3rd. The hive mind will move some parts around but I think we’re seeing the trend there possibly.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Gotcha

  18. Nick says:
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    Considering Brad Johnson at Fangraphs just ranked Carrasco his number four starting pitcher and there’s a been a lot of talk about him over there, I think the sleeper ship has mostly sailed, unfortunately. Everyone, including you of course, is right that there’s a lot to like, but even the yahoos are jumping on his bandwagon. I’m thinking his ADP may make him awfully risky on draft day, which is too bad, because he had the makings of a good sleeper.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      #4 overall is silly…

  19. Big Magoo

    Big Magoo says:
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    Carrasco’s stuff is filthy, and his 2nd half numbers were ridiculous last season, but he’s starting to get a bit overhyped, I think. Nobody seems to be concerned that his 134 IP represented a career high MLB total, and his highest total across all levels since ’10. Threw 7+ innings in just one start prior to September. I like him too, but he looks like a risky top 100 pick to me.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Ha, I just wrote this to Sky

      • Big Magoo

        Big Magoo says:
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        @Grey: Great minds think alike… By the way, I’m almost caught up on Top Chef now. Can’t believe that Adam got axed. I thought he was the 3rd best chef behind Gregory and Doug…

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, I was trying not to spoil that when you were saying Adam was good… He could come back through Last Chance Kitchen… It’s a good season, and I think Mai (Mae? May?) is still in the running…

          • Big Magoo

            Big Magoo says:
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            @Grey: I think that Mae? is overrated, but she’s not bad. Melissa should’ve been cut instead of Adam. She poached shrimp and made a salad. Wow. She’s coasting off of that one soup that she made in one of the early episodes…

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Yeah, Melissa’s not long for the TC world… But the final three seem pretty set with maybe (Maebe?) a wild card…

              • quimmy says:
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                @Grey: @Grey: In regards to TC, George might deserve his own sleeper post.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Nah, he’s not going anywhere

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      He was a relief pitcher prior to August for most of the year. I wouldn’t hold the 7+ IP in a game over his head that heavily when you consider that factor. He also pitched 195 total IP in 2010 and 127 in 2011 before missing 18 months with TJ surgery. 2013 was a ‘getting his shizz together’ year. We didn’t see the real Carrasco until he figured some stuff out in the bullpen around June. By comparison to some other pitchers going ahead of him or just around him on some consensus boards (James Shields/Cliff Lee/Alex Wood/Garrett Richards), when you factor upside and actual 2014 numbers, he’s in range to pay off better than the arms surrounding him.

      • Big Magoo

        Big Magoo says:
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        @Sky: I’m not saying that he’s incapable of averaging close to 7 innings per start or approaching 185-190 IP, but he hasn’t proven that he’s capable of doing those things across a full season yet. It’s the same concern that I had about Cobb going into ’14, and he ended up with 166.1 IP. I definitely like him more than Shields and Lee, and would put him right in with guys like Wood and Richards, but the hype is likely to push him further up draft boards than those guys.

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          Gotcha and that makes sense. Richards is hurt, I’m he’ll slide a bit. I don’t think he starts the year but he’ll be a Cole Hamels/Hisashi Iwakuma type for draftniks wanting a top 20’ish arm late that they can stash. I’m not as high on Wood as others, personally. Think his delivery is more the cause of his K’s than his actual pitching, which can be figured out. Don’t hate him but he won’t be on my radar, I can say that.

          • Big Magoo

            Big Magoo says:
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            @Sky: Yeah, I agree with you. I’d prefer Carrasco to all of those other pitchers that you mentioned. I just wouldn’t draft him ahead of guys like Cole and Arrieta, and I think that his ADP will settle into that range over the next couple of months.

            • Sky

              Sky says:
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              Ahead of Arrieta? No for me as well. Cole? You could talk me into it. We could stand by the same argument of IP there with Gerrit too, in particular the IP per game metric. Cole averaged 6.27, Carrasco 6.5. Cole had 8 more starts and only had 3 more starts of 7 IP or greater. Of course, none of this matters cuz I’ll be going after a lot of late arms/good arms that fall because everyone has had their fill of them anyways. Can’t see taking a starter before round 8 unless the value says I should, especially in an RCL. But that said, always fun to have these convos. Gives a reason to do some dig down.

              • Big Magoo

                Big Magoo says:
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                @Sky: Cole pitches in the NL, pitches in a better park, and has a better defense behind him than Carrasco. Stuff is comparable. Both guys are lights-out when they’re on. I just prefer Cole by a hair.

                • Sky

                  Sky says:
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                  Given how offense has pulled back across the board, I don’t weight the NL vs AL as heavily as I used to personally. And PNC vs Progressive was this much of a ballpark factor difference in 2014: .977 vs .950 for runs and ranked 17th and 19th, respectively. They’re both neutral to good with PNC actually playing out ‘worse’. Unless we’re talking HRs but there are a lot of factors to be played out there but PNC does ‘win’ that side by a good margin. Defensely, they were both pretty bad last year both in errors and fielding percentage. Not trying to argue but if those are the basis, I don’t know how much weight they hold when looking at it from the stats side of things. But like you said ‘by a hair’. We’re quibbling, both arms have their merits.

                  • Big Magoo

                    Big Magoo says:
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                    @Sky: You know as well as I do how much park factors can fluctuate from year to year. Yankee Stadium, Wrigley Field, Camden Yards, and Citizens Bank Park all finished 20th or lower in park factor for runs last season, below both PNC and Progressive. Do you consider any of those parks to be pitcher-friendly, or even neutral for that matter? As far as the defensive stats go, it depends how much stock you put into metrics such as defensive WAR and UZR, but Cleveland graded out much more poorly in those areas than Pittsburgh did last season.

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
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                      If we both know they fluctuate from year to year – which yes we both do – then why are we putting stock in it? I wasn’t proposing that stadium factor was part of my analysis of either player. I did find it interesting to see they were in essence ‘the same park’ over the last 4 years, hovering anywhere from 15 down to 21 but always within about 2 spots of each other.

                      You are definitely right that Cleveland graded out much more poorly on plenty of metrics defensively and have for quite some time. That said, if we’re talking about better, comparing bad to bad still gives you bad when it’s all said and done. It will be interesting to see what moves both teams have made since last summer – losing Asdrubal has a good chance of improving Indians defense and Pedro moving to 1st should in theory help the Pirates somewhat if Harrison holds down 3rd – will do to the overall defense.

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
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                      I think the big factor for me in the defensive stance is Max Scherzer. You drafted him because he was Max Scherzer knowing full well the Tigers defense has been horrible and would most likely continue to be (which it was). Not saying Carrasco or Cole are Mad Max but we’re looking at K/9, K:BB…all the stuff a pitcher can control. Pitching well is about as good as we can expect and it’s all I look at, personally.

                  • Big Magoo

                    Big Magoo says:
                    (link)

                    @Sky: I think it’s worth considering any factor that could affect a player’s performance. Team defense is pretty far down the list of concerns (for me anyway) when evaluating a pitcher due to how quickly those metrics can change (injuries, trades, call-ups, etc.), but it’s worth looking at. Home park and strength of schedule/opponents are a little more important. I just referenced a few of the park factors from this past season because you brought it up earlier, but I don’t put too much stock into the results from just one season.

                    Skill set, age, role, job security, track record, and durability are some of the things that I place heavy emphasis on when evaluating a player. Most of the other stuff isn’t quite as important, but can act as a tiebreaker when debating between two or more similar players such as Cole and Carrasco.

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
                      (link)

                      Haha, you might wanna re-read our thread. You mentioned ballpark as a factor. Twas your second point, good sir!: https://razzball.com/carlos-carrasco-2015-fantasy-sleeper/#comment-2327270; unless you’re saying I mentioned it somewhere else. I don’t think I did.

                      Yup, agree on those measuring sticks. Track record is a tricky one for me. It’s the measuring stick that makes some hesitate too long and miss out on the JD Martinez’, the Arrietas and McHughs. Not that overreacting is great either but some guys wait too long when that is one of their deciding factors, especially in the pitching world.

                  • Big Magoo

                    Big Magoo says:
                    (link)

                    @Sky: Well sure, but I just mentioned it in passing as a minor factor until you started getting all staty on me! Haha. Whether you use espn’s park factors or fangraphs http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type=pf&season=2014&teamid=0&sort=2,d, they basically tell the same story – that base hits are easier to come by in PNC due to the massive outfield, but HRs are easier to hit in Progressive. As far as pitchers are concerned, I’ve always been in favor of the bigger parks that prevent HRs over the ones that require the opposing team to string several hits together in order to produce a big inning. There are arguments to be made on both sides though.

                    I agree with you on track records as they relate to late draft picks and free agents. If you ignore or discount past performance when evaluating early-mid round picks, it can result in a boom/bust type of squad, which can be very risky.

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
                      (link)

                      Yeah on draft day, some caution is necessary. It’s the in-season managers that hold too long to ‘good track records’ that have gone bad that kills rosters.

                  • Big Magoo

                    Big Magoo says:
                    (link)

                    @Sky: My point when discussing ballparks was pretty redundant, wasn’t it? I meant to say that I consider it to be more of an advantage for a pitcher to play in a home park that suppresses HRs over one that is susceptible to the long ball, even at the expense of a few more singles and doubles sprinkled in along the way.

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
                      (link)

                      I can see your argument about HR vs stringing them together when using the ballpark factor. I think both things can be surpressed by just good pitching, though, so it’s why I don’t factor it in. I do factor ballpark when considering whether a pitcher is predominantly GB or FB, though. I mean, Chris Young is a shining example of those types of setups and situations. No way you even think about him when he was on the road but when he was at home, you could see a streamable pitcher. Seriously, I’m getting amped to write up my deep league series already. This is fun!

                  • Big Magoo

                    Big Magoo says:
                    (link)

                    @Sky: “Deep League Thoughts: Park Factors” coming soon to a razzball near you!

                    I hear you on Scherzer and K/BB stats and the like, but Mad Max was/is a proven commodity. One thing that I see every year is FBB players overvaluing data from small sample sizes – 2nd half stats, a dominant postseason, whatever it might be. 134 IP is a long way off from 200, as far as Carrasco is concerned. I don’t see any validity in projecting stats for a larger sample size based off of rates that were produced in a smaller one. It rarely works out that way.

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
                      (link)

                      Haha, I wouldn’t read that!

                      I was pointing out Scherzer strictly on the merits of your defensive factor: only reason I mentioned and only reason I brought him up since he was in the same defensive boat as Cole and Carrasco when it was all said and done. That’s why I said I don’t give them much weight: you can either pitch or you can’t is what it really comes down to.

                      Small sample size sometimes pays off (Jose Bautista) and sometimes it doesn’t (Danny Salazar). That’s the issue: it’s rarely that cut and dry and so many factors play into whether small samples of stats matter or don’t. Steve Pearce will be an interesting case this year. I think he’ll be on a deep league squad for me and on watch lists for RCL types. Small sample sizes cuts both ways with regards to the players involved. Is player ‘x’ who just had a down year really the player who just played like crap for 150 games or is he the guy who put up the good numbers for the 5 seasons prior? So many factors. And yes, straight ‘divide HRs by ABs on the year and multiply by 500’ is rarely a good ending point for analysis; 100% with you there.

                  • Big Magoo

                    Big Magoo says:
                    (link)

                    @Sky: Scherzer’s a player who could be affected by park factors, I believe. He’s an extreme flyball pitcher, so signing with San Fran or St Louis would help his value and a team like NYY or Toronto might hurt him a bit. The elite K-rate plays anywhere though.

                    Bautista is a rare case. He changed his hitting approach and suddenly became a monster. Pearce is likely to regress some, but how much? Carrasco has always had exceptional stuff, but hasn’t been able to control it until this past season. Will he be able to carry that over into next season? If so, he might be a top 10 SP. If not, and he’s unable to throw more than 160 innings or so, he’s essentially Francisco Liriano. Is that type of player worth an 8th round pick?

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
                      (link)

                      Yeah, was just saying why Scherzer was brought up: wasn’t in context of the two we were debating, just in light of part of the convo. Agree that it could affect him. If he goes to a smaller home park, an ERA bump up to 3.40 to 3.60 wouldn’t surprise. Maybe 3.75 if his BABIP goes nutty on him but that would be an extreme.

                      Bautista is rare in that he became a first rounder. I don’t think anyone – even those who liked him – saw that coming. But there are guys like Brandon Moss in 2013 after a small ‘breakthrough’ that people who are averse to the sample size probably wouldn’t have even considered. Pearce will regress but I’m of the mindset that if he gets a full season of plate appearances, 20+ HRs should be a lock but I’d say 25 is his upside most likely unless he has an insane BABIP kind of year.

                      That’s a lot of what if. Could go round and round with that kind of stuff and it doesn’t really solidify any side for or against. What if he’s the Corey Kluber of 2015? Just doesn’t do much either way. It’s also the same kind of what if that put Tyson Ross outside of a lot of people’s minds when it came to draft day: no long history of success, not many innings pitched in previous years. I get he’s not being drafted in the 8th but still, guys either can or can’t. Not to pick on Grey, last year pitchers at or after pick 84 in his top 100: Matt Cain, James Shields, Doug Fister, Justin Masterson and Gerrit Cole (with Sonny Gray sprinkled in at 101). I’d say that’s about a 50/50 split in terms of hit/miss. You’re at the point of the draft there where you’re looking for another ace-type arm. Or at least I am. Only guys I would’ve wanted – and did take – from that tier were Cole and Gray. Sonny was good if unspectacular and Cole couldn’t pitch 160 IP despite nice peripherals. And in the end I’d do it all again because none of the other options had true breakout potential. Mediocrity can be found too easy in the pitching market so yes, I’ll take the risk of Carrasco over most of the names he’s going near, personally.

                  • Big Magoo

                    Big Magoo says:
                    (link)

                    @Sky: I agree with a lot of what you’re saying. It’s probably more a question of strategy. You’re looking for an ace at that point in the draft (8th-9th round), while I’m looking for a #2 to complement the ace that I already have (hopefully). How much risk I’m willing to take with that pick depends on how safe I feel my #1 is. If it’s King Felix, I wouldn’t have a problem rolling the dice on Carrasco. If my #1 is Darvish, I’m not even considering him at that spot. I’d be looking for a safe, high floor guy like Iwakuma. It’s a matter of context really.

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
                      (link)

                      That makes complete sense to me, though I tend to leverage towards more risk when it comes to pitching myself. I’d be fine with Carrasco either way in those scenarios. I think there are good/safe arms that can be had later that would fill that void in some respects. I guess I just don’t trust ‘safe’ but it’s hard to argue against Iwakuma as a 2 either way.

        • mauledbypandas says:
          (link)

          @Big Magoo: this is just the level-headed type of thinking that makes you absolutely annoying to play against. Go with your emotions! Ride the hype train BM!

          • Big Magoo

            Big Magoo says:
            (link)

            @mauledbypandas: Pandas! I try to stay level-headed, but I fall in love with certain players every year (Cole, Rosario, etc. last season) who wind up killing a few of my teams. Why don’t you jump on the hype train? I need you to make some uncharacteristically rash decisions next year!

            • mauledbypandas says:
              (link)

              @Big Magoo: Don’t worry I will make some bad decisions next year. I have been very lucky the last few years avoiding huge busts. I think this year it’s time to gamble on some rebounds. I think next year has quite a few players to be had at discount prices if willing to accept a little bit of risk. It should be interesting

              • mauledbypandas says:
                (link)

                @mauledbypandas: I am actually so excited this year I am starting to look at stuff now when I usually give myself a break until later in January. Maybe too much research is a bad thing though…

                • Big Magoo

                  Big Magoo says:
                  (link)

                  @mauledbypandas: Yeah, it’s easy to overthink things sometimes when you’re busy poring over stats for a few months. I’ve already looked at too many stats from last season, probably. It’s a good idea to step away every once in awhile…

                  • Wake Up says:
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                    @Big Magoo: Agree with you here Magoo…speaking of pouring over…off to crack my first Blueberry Sour!

                    • Big Magoo

                      Big Magoo says:
                      (link)

                      @Wake Up: Oooooh, nice. Never had one of those. Let me know how it is.

                      I’m givin’ the ol’ liver a break today so that it’s more receptive to the New Year’s Eve beatdown that will be inflicted upon it tomorrow…

                  • Wake Up says:
                    (link)

                    @Big Magoo: Prolly should have done the same…

                    I made three gallons in 2011…bottle conditioned…had one the night before the night to make sure that they were presentable…they were…

  20. Ante GALIC says:
    (link)

    Grey!

    This is much better than January Grey or mid-season form. You have taken the gold standard – platinum standard paradigm to another level (What? You don’t know the difference???).

    1 Golden rule – do unto others as they do unto you. Good for 16th Utopian society. Hence…

    2. Platinum rule – do unto others as they would like to have done. For instance, if you know Cougs likes to watch rom-com with sandra bulloch, then watch it, using the platinum rule.

    Cheers,
    Ante

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Thanks! 1. Ha 2. Ugh, do I have to?

    • Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo says:
      (link)

      @Ante GALIC: what is the 16th utopian society?

  21. Wake Up says:
    (link)

    (Great!)…I missed the veggie puns??!!??

    J-F’s greatest post ever.corn…

    Ellipsases are being chastised…(and verboten)…???

    (And) SP’s in the top 80 overall are being debated…???…???

    I wonder if he’ll go in the 4th round (where I won’t take him)…
    Or, in the 5th round (where I won’t…)

    I feel as though I’m traveling through a field of molasses and gaining masses…(where am I)

    PS Your welcorne everybody, your welcorne…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Dot corn is what my doodie looks like.

      • Wake Up says:
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        @Grey: You know you can eat it one more time when it looks like that right?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Only once? Uh-oh

  22. Wake Up says:
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    (Oh, and this Brett Myers jam ain’t too bad…just place some skoal inside your ear canals before you replace your headphones)

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Ha!

      • Wake Up says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Prolly old news now…but, I just watched Budapest Hotel…wasn’t really feeling it…

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          I liked it, but I’d suggest Nightcrawler for you…

          • Wake Up says:
            (link)

            @Grey: Thanks!
            It was a combo of me waiting/building it up for months and being tired when I finally saw it…I’ll give it another chance, since I’m a huge WA fan!

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Yeah, definitely do

          • Wake Up says:
            (link)

            @Grey: Well, I’m not huge…I’m a fan…and a big fan of his…but, I’m not huge or really big or anything like that…you kna’m sayin?

  23. james says:
    (link)

    Basic “rank these guys” question. Dynastty league (so i get them for as long as i want to keep them)…

    Carrasco
    deGrom
    Salazar
    Ryu
    Stroman
    Archer
    Latos
    McHough
    Pineda
    Walker.

    i know there are lots of names, but through a number of trade downs from the 6th round, I have ended up with 5 picks (3 extra picks) at the end of the 11th and start of the 12th round, and will be looking to nab 3-4 of these guys (pitching really fell in the draft, so lots of interesting arms this late, but maybe 3 hitters worth even looking at for a few more rounds)

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      You should be looking to nab hitters not pitchers… Carrasco, deGrom, Stroman, Pineda, Archer

      • james says:
        (link)

        @Grey:
        Thanks, I went hitter heavy early (freeman, wong, starlin, machado, harper, heyward, puig, arenado), at this point the hitters are getting thin.

        The best hitters that iwould even think about are; VMart, Duda, Lawrie, Gyorko, and Pollack. Vmart is nice, but age really kills his dynastty value, the rest I just feel like the 11th is too high.

        • james says:
          (link)

          @james: wanted to add Danny Santana and Ian Kisler to the list of hitters available.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Duda’s a 30-homer hitter

          • JeF With 1 F says:
            (link)

            @Grey: WET TAIL!!!

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Haha

  24. Günther says:
    (link)

    Keeper league where we keep 15 players. My pitching staff (starters) are Strasburg, Carrasco, Gausman, Sanchez, Bailey, Bauer, Hutichson, McHugh. I’m thinking of keeping 5-6 of them. Which would you recommend holding on to?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Strasburg, Carrasco, Gausman, Sanchez, Hutichson, McHugh

  25. SteveNZ says:
    (link)

    No way I’ll last til midnight, but Happy New Year y’all.

    May 2015 bring stuff you want it to bring.

    • JeF With 1 F says:
      (link)

      @SteveNZ: Same to you Steve

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Is it New Year’s for you already?

      • SteveNZ says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Not when I typed that, was about 10pm New Year’s Eve I think.
        It’s 2015 here now though! Happy New Year all over again!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Happy New Year! Hope you had a good celebration… Do anything special?

          • SteveNZ says:
            (link)

            @Grey: Nah, just a quiet night in with the fam. Lights out at 11!
            You got a big night planned?

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Oh hell yeah (not really)… Going to a few of Cougs’s friends house parties… It should be a real joy… She did make a few crack pies, so that’s good… Google crack pie Momofuku to see what it is…

              • SteveNZ says:
                (link)

                @Grey: Oh my…

              • Wake Up says:
                (link)

                @Grey: Googled it…keeps redirecting me to Marion Barry’s homepage?

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  Same diff!

  26. Swfcdan says:
    (link)

    Love him love him love him.

    Going after him in every draft next year. What price would be your max in auctions?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Prolly around $15

      • Swfcdan says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Thats a ladda dough for a pitcher. Reckon we can get him for around 7 bucks in most drafts? Dont wanna pay too much for 90 innings.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Now I have no idea who you’re talking about… Who’s pitching 90 innings?

      • Swfcdan says:
        (link)

        @Grey: And happy new year to the greatest fantasy analyst on earth. P.S. we will have new year here before you guys in America, so there!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Haha… Thanks… Happy New Year!

  27. JeF With 1 F says:
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    Happy New year to all of (as Grey would say) my over the internet friends…Lets all win some cash this year!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Happy New Year Amen to that!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I prefer not so Addison Russell can get called up…

      • JeF With 1 F says:
        (link)

        @Grey: AMEN TO THAT!!

  28. anTONYo says:
    (link)

    Who you taking this year, and over the next three years?

    Ellsbury or Springer?

    • anTONYo says:
      (link)

      @anTONYo:

      And as a follow up… Springer or Yelich?

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        Springer

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Ellsbury…Springer

  29. Yo Mama says:
    (link)

    ESPN’s got some propaganda up about Trout being destined for a big time drop-off… You buying this at all?!

    • JeF With 1 F says:
      (link)

      @Yo Mama: You started your post with ESPN…theres your answer

      • Yo Mama says:
        (link)

        @JeF With 1 F:

        Haha!

        Trout still = the greatest player on earth, correct?

        • JeF With 1 F says:
          (link)

          @Yo Mama: till proven otherwise

          • J-FOH says:
            (link)

            @JeF With 1 F: I’m sure some jerk off will come in and say that triple beers redneck Mad Bum is the greatest

            • Jef with 1 f says:
              (link)

              @J-FOH: ha ha

  30. dan says:
    (link)

    thanks for the reply to my post in the rankings thread, but the reason i left the link is b/c it’s way too much to post in here. don’t worry about it! thanks

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      No problem

  31. Jon says:
    (link)

    Would you deal Arenado for Carrasco in a keep forever league? No dollar values, just a limit of 18 keepers per year. I have Donaldson and Frazier to man 3B and CI respectively.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I wouldn’t… Happy New Year!

  32. Jon says:
    (link)

    By the way, Happy New Year!

  33. J-FOH says:
    (link)

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Awesome!

      • J-FOH says:
        (link)

        @Grey: go with the stales on days like this.
        And conveniently works today

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Yup

  34. J-FOH says:
    (link)

    what the hell is up with this dating naked show?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Huh?

      • J-FOH says:
        (link)

        @Grey: reality show on VH1 from this past summer. They were showing re-runs today. It’s basically a group dating show where they go on dates naked in paradise.

        Here is the link, you being a reality show junkie, i figured you know about it.

        http://www.vh1.com/shows/dating-naked/

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Googled it and it turns out they forgot to pixelate one girl and she’s suing… Oopsie!

          • J-FOH says:
            (link)

            @Grey: why does pixelate sound dirty?

            • Wake Up says:
              (link)

              @J-FOH: Someone’s been playing Cards against humanity…

            • Wake Up says:
              (link)

              @J-FOH: And nice avi…looks like you had a ruff night!

              • J-FOH says:
                (link)

                @Wake Up: Nam changes a man

                • Wake Up says:
                  (link)

                  @J-FOH: Cambodia Kurtz worse…

                  • J-FOH says:
                    (link)

                    @Wake Up: the whore!

                    • Wake Up says:
                      (link)

                      @J-FOH: HA…the challah men!

                  • J-FOH says:
                    (link)

                    @Wake Up: oh so KNOTty

  35. slew says:
    (link)

    95 more days til Opening Day! Happy New Year, Razzball.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Happy New Year, Slew!

  36. Alan says:
    (link)

    I am going for it in 5×5 dynasty.

    Have carrasco, fister, Roark, iwakuma, cliff lee, Burnett, Kennedy, Lynn and Quintana.

    Also have qualls, familia, Jairo Diaz, Doolittle, mujica and koji.

    Is it worth it to trade Quintana for benoit since I need a good closer, just worry he is 12 years younger.

    Thanks man

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Hold

  37. MB says:
    (link)

    Who will close in houston? Qualls, gregerson or neshek? Think Jepsen gets saves in TB?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Gregerson likely

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Maybe on Jepsen, seems unlikely

  38. J-FOH says:
    (link)

    I looked up crack pie….I want some crack pie

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      It’s so damn good… It’s like pecan pie without pecans…

      • J-FOH says:
        (link)

        @Grey: I love pecan pie…and pecans

      • Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo says:
        (link)

        @Grey: pecan pie is great, but why take out the pecans (other than a nut alergy i suppose)

  39. Alex says:
    (link)

    Do you like roark or fister over Kazmir? Or should I try to trade one of the Nats SP for Kaz?

    Thank you

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I like both over Kazmir

  40. Dave says:
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    Who do I want to own after Nathan? Rondon, Hanahrahan or soria?

Comments are closed.