Our final division in this breakout prospect series is the NL West. These are players who “broke out” statistically in 2015 and were either ranked in the bottom half of their team’s preseason top ten list or didn’t make their team’s list at all. Some of these names will look familiar and have already been scooped up in many dynasty formats. Others may still be flying low enough that their big performances have gone undetected. I’ll see most of you on the other side when the offseason posts start next Wednesday, but in case I don’t – thanks for a great season and good luck to you on the final weekend! Here are the breakout prospects from the NL West…

Daniel Palka, OF | ARI Age: 23 ETA: 2017
Level PA AVG/OBP/SLG HR SB BB% K%
A+ 576 .280/.352/.532 29 24 10% 28%

A third round draft pick back in 2013, Palka’s pop isn’t anything new (he hit 22 homers just last year). He did raise his batting average over 30 points and jumped from 22 to 29 homers in 2015. While the standard Cal League asterisk is still in play, the thing that really gets my attention about his season has nothing to do with his bat. Palka stole 24 bags…nearly tripling his total from the year before. The 23-year-old is playing mostly corner outfield now, and if he can maintain that power/speed combination in Double-A, he could quickly become an interesting fantasy prospect in 2016.

Jordan Patterson, OF | COL Age: 23 ETA: 2017
Level PA AVG/OBP/SLG HR SB BB% K%
A+/AA 541 .297/.364/.543 17 18 6% 24%

Here’s another power/speed combo in the outfield, but this time with a potential Coors bonus. Patterson had a good 2014 season in the Sally, but 2015 saw him nearly double his doubles total from the year before and he actually lowered his strikeout rate in Double-A, which is typically one of the bigger jumps in the minor leagues. I don’t count any hitting prospect out as long as they’re still in the Colorado system, but Patterson’s 2015 season could earn him some top ten love this offseason.

Ruddy Giron, SS | SD Age: 18 ETA: 2018
Level PA AVG/OBP/SLG HR SB BB% K%
A 419 .285/.335/.407 9 15 7% 16%

Not only did Giron bust out nine homers after hitting none in 2014, but he held his own as an 18-year-old in the Midwest League this year. His strikeout and walk rates point to a good approach, and there’s enough pop to get to double-digit homers. He’ll most likely end up at a middle infield position, either shortstop or second base, but there’s a long way to go with an ETA still a good 2-3 years away. I’d invest in deeper formats if you’ve got a minor league slot where you can let him cook.

Sam Coonrod, RHP | SF Age: 23 ETA: 2017
Level IP “+” Pitches ERA HR/9 BB/9 K/9
A 111.2  FB/SL 3.14 0.2 2.7 9.2

Coonrod pitched the entire year in the Sally league, where he threw 111+ innings and struck out more than a batter per frame. He has two plus pitches in his fastball and slider, but if the rest of his arsenal (mainly a changeup) doesn’t come around he may be destined for the bullpen. Much like stocking up on Colorado hitters can’t hurt you, it’s never a bad idea to give Giants pitchers a long look. Coonrod already made it into the top ten on Baseball America’s midseason report, and he should be a name you see more in the coming months.

Johan Mieses, OF | LAD Age: 19 ETA: 2018
Level PA AVG/OBP/SLG HR SB BB% K%
A/A+ 395 .260/.309/.439 11 10 6% 22%

If you’re looking for a prospect who might have a Robles/Margot type rise over the next year or two, Mieses may be your guy. The center fielder spent the first two years of his pro career in the rookie leagues, but found himself in High-A as a 19-year-old by the end of the 2015 season. He more than doubled his home run output in just 165 more plate appearances. If he continues to respond well to tougher, older competition then Mieses could be a household name by midsummer. At the very least, deep dynasty leaguers should have him on their radars.


AL: East | Central | West                    NL: East | Central | West

  1. Mark says:
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    Do we need to start paying attention to any dbacks prospect that succeeds like we do rockies now? Seems that place makes players better

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      I don’t think it’s quite as extreme as Coors, but yeah Toronto, Arizona, Milwaukee, etc. are favorable parks that you have to consider. It gets really interesting when you break it down by handedness as well.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        You’re handedness!

        • Mike

          Mike says:
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          haha…I am!

  2. MB says:
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    Could Dom Nunez be considered a breakout as well?

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      sure thing…one of the reasons I didn’t go with him was that I felt his counting numbers were what I’d expect with the increased plate apparances in a full season

      • MB says:
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        @Mike: Oh for sure, patterson was a great choice. I never heard of three of these guys so thanks man, will try to scoop them up in the winter draft.

        • Mike

          Mike says:
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          anytime!

  3. Sam says:
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    mike,

    What do you think are reasonable estimates on Conforto’s and Piscotty’s stat lines next year? Like Mazara over either? Both?

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      Conforto .270 with 20+ homers is doable…Piscotty more like 15-18 dingers but could hit 10 points higher.

      I like Maz over both long term, but I think you might actually get more out of the other two if you’re looking at next year only. Chance Maz starts year in the minors

      • Sam says:
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        @Mike: Thanks for the input!! How about Domingo Santana and Ozuna?

        • Mike

          Mike says:
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          hmm, they’re all pretty similar

          I’d rank them Santana, Ozuna, Conforto, Piscotty, Maz off the top of my head for next year, but those first three are basically clumped together

          • Let Us Now Praise Famous Death Dwarves says:
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            @Mike: wow, with what piscotty and conforto have looked like (and reports that domingo should hit more homers but .24 or less), that must mean you have domingo down for more steals than i would’ve thought.

            • Mike

              Mike says:
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              I think they’re all close, though Piscotty different type of hitter, not really a slugger type. Everybody else in that group I could see hitting 25-30 dingers. And Maz could end up best of all of them long term.

  4. J-FOH says:
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    I came in hoping for a grabbing popcorn moment but then I realized it wasn’t my post, you really need to work on rubbing people the wrong way

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      oh yeah? well how about you go have a great rest of your week?

      how was that? Pretty sharp tongue there I think…

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Easy, Mike, easy.

      • J-FOH says:
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        @Mike: slow your roll homie….slow your roll

        • Mike

          Mike says:
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          I…I’m sorry JFOH. It’s the wine coolers talking.

          • J-FOH says:
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            @Mike: that’s okay, I re-read it as slow your roll hoagie and now I want a sandwich

            • Mike

              Mike says:
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              slow your pork roll

              • J-FOH says:
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                @Mike: dont make me lamb shank you

                • Mike

                  Mike says:
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                  lol

    • The Harrow says:
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      @J-FOH: for some it’s not even a competition anymore. it doesn’t even take much effort for some.

  5. Ambreen says:
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    Hello Mike, I can only keep one in dynasty, which do you want in 2016?

    Byrd, Canha, Torii Hunter or Billy Butler

    5×5 roto, 30 mlb per teams, 15 teams

    Thank you man

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      hmm, prolly Canha in dynasty

  6. James W Simpson says:
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    Love the posts as always.

    It’s getting to that time of the year..in my keep 6 league I’m keeping buxton, sano, arrenado, blackmon and franco, but I cannot determine the last one at all. I’ve discussed it with you about soler multiple times but i think 5th round value is just tooooo high for him when I think I could re draft him next year at lower value and I dont have a 4th or 10th for next year because of trades. baez is on the wire with 20th round value (out of 22) and nola would be about the same value as well. would I be better off stashing someone like JP crawford glasnow moncada trea turner etc?

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      tough one…I could see rolling the dice on a guy like Crawford, but he’s not going to be up to start the year. Baez at 20th rd value is fine as well

      • James W Simpson says:
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        @Mike: wow so I just double checked and baez actually has 15th rd value…
        forgot about domingo santana?

        hmmm

        • Mike

          Mike says:
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          if you’re only keeping six you want guys who are going to play everyday and produce as your keepers obviously. Santana might not be a bad choice for your sixth man there

  7. Bryce Krispie Treats says:
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    Hey Mike,

    What do you think about Moncada’s chances to start with the big league team next year? My guess is slim to none, but maybe a midseason call up?

    Thanks for the time!

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      no problem….early 2017 seems more likely, but I guess it’s possible if he rakes in AA

  8. Moneyball says:
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    We have an MiLB farm squad in our league which you can keep a few guys on until they finish a year with 130 total at-bats or 50 innings. Then you have to cut them or ‘promote’ them which serves as a last round draft pick. So if Buxton gets 5 more at-bats, he and Joe Ross will be my 25th and 26th rouonders next year. I’ll have to decide on either Michael Taylor or Delino DeShields come next March as well.

    My question is I just dropped Jake Lamb (who I can just draft late next year if I even want him) for Jose De Leon. Do you think Jose (age 24) will get a shot next year for the Dodgers maybe like Lance McCullers did from Double A this year or odds are 2017? Or Peter O’Brien is also sitting on the wire whom Rotoworld just posted the DBacks might consider switching back to Catcher for 2016.

    Thanks!

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      nice…I think De Leon could see some innings later in the year, sure.

      O’Brien’s power is enticing, but I can’t help but think the DBacks need to quit messing around with his position and just pick something or else they’re going to screw him up.

  9. Left Hangs Lower says:
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    Hey Mike!

    So I’m thinking of starting up a dynasty league this fall.

    Outside of the top 50, my knowledge is pretty baren prospects. What are some of your favorite resources to hit up to learn about prospects?

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      why, just read all of my posts of course! just kidding

      Sickels and McDaniel are both very knowledgeable and their content is free at minorleagueball and fangraphs. I use some combination of their scouting grades when I put guys into the fantasy machine here. The biggest thing is to find a source you seem to agree with/like/respect whatever and just make sure they’re giving updates that are based on firsthand looks and not just stats.

      I think it’s awesome that you’re starting up a dynasty

      • Left Hangs Lower says:
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        @Mike:

        Thank you! It’s an incredible amount of work and I haven’t even done a single thing yet.

        Thinking of doing a 12-team H2H league with 30 MLB players (that is, 30 rounds of drafting) and 10 MiLB player system where we do that in a slow draft later this year.

        There are just so many ways to customize a league and so many rules that people apply that I don’t even know where to start.

        Any wise tips?

        • Mike

          Mike says:
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          anytime

          I like that roster size and minor league split. next thing will be figuring out how you want to do your protected players. You could do a straight dynasty and keep 30-35 guys or do more of a keeper where you protect like 12-15 guys. then it’s a matter of keeping them forever or having some sort of contract/salary inflation system. for example in my home keeper we keep 12 for 5 years max and a five dollar salary raise each year. in another league im in we just keep players forever, no contracts, and we keep 35 of 40

          • Left Hangs Lower says:
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            @Mike:

            I think I’m leaning a keep forever. How do you then replenish the final five roster spots each season?

            In addition, do you mind sharing your offensive positions breakdown and pitching breakdown?

            • Mike

              Mike says:
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              you’ll just need a small supplemental draft each spring. number of rounds equal to the number of slots your league throws back to the pool.

              sure thing…There’s lots of ways to tweak it, but in the Razzball dynasty we do C,1B,2B,3B,SS,CI,MI,5OF, 2 Util… 9 P slots, 7 MLB Bench, and 10 minors slots. that comes out to 23 MLb, 7 bench, 10 farm and 40 man roster in all.

              • Left Hangs Lower says:
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                @Mike:

                Out of curiosity, who’d be the top pick in your supplemental draft? Curious as to what “talent” is available, if you even want to call it that.

                And thanks for the breakdown of the offensive positions. How do you like to use those 7 bench spots? I’m someone who tries to avoid any bench offensive hitters (hate sonovabenching) and stacks pitchers. How do you go about it?

                • Mike

                  Mike says:
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                  no problem…it really depends on your preference…I like to carry more arms on my bench to get counting stats, but in deeper leagues its nice to carry a couple extra bats to plug in as well, so like 5 arms, two extra bats kinda thing

                  top picl in the supp draft will probably be a guy liek Moncada, since we dont allow players to be picked up who didnt sign before the start of the season

                  • Left Hangs Lower says:
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                    @Mike:

                    Got it. Thanks a lot, Mike! You’ll be seeing a lot more of me now on your posts!

                    • Mike

                      Mike says:
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                      no problem sounds good!

  10. Packers says:
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    Mike I’m thinking of joining a new red raft all keeper dynasty league. We will Draft our teams from scratch. 2 players deep at each position 10 pitchers, 5 outfieders. My DNA is to win now and no try to impress people with all the prospects I know. So having said that what would your strategy be?
    I’m good with choosing young players that have proven themselves. How about 3 or 4 pitchers and hitters you would want for sure. How about couple prospects for my bench. Thanks alot.

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      cool!

      I’d look at players in that 22-25 year-old sweet spot in the majors, maybe even younger if they’re a stud. That way you’re carrying them into their peak instead of out of it. You probably don’t need me to tell you that guys like Machado, Arenado, etc are dynasty gold right now. Then you’ve got this year’s rookie class of Bryant, Sano, Soler, Correa, Lindor, Franco etc…arms I’d look at Carlos Martinez, Stroman, maybe Nola, E-Rod…but honestly I think it’s better to invest in young hitters and kinda build your pitching staff around that any way you can. I learned the hard way in one dyno that the young pitchers (especially prospects) can fizzle fast.

      So for prospects I would go after hitters…preferably ones that have proven themselves in the upper levels and aren’t all helium. Mazara, Zimmer, Williams, Brinson, etc…here’s the midseason top 50 :

      https://razzball.com/midseason-top-50-fantasy-baseball-prospects/

      • Packers says:
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        @Mike: thanks for the link.

        • Mike

          Mike says:
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          anytime

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