When the Dodgers signed Hyun-Jin Ryu before the 2013 season, my first thought was, This dude looks like a Macy’s Day Parade balloon; not a professional athlete. The Dodgers did shell out $36 million for him, so they obviously had more grandiose plans for him than to have him float high above Chavez Ravine to provide shade for the whole stadium. So I looked at his numbers in Korea. Not bad, but not great. Then I read the scouting reports and was meh. At the conclusion of his first season with the Dodgers in 2013, Ryu went 14-8, posted a 3.00 ERA, 1.203 WHIP, and struck out 154 batters in 192 innings. Those numbers don’t sound exciting, yet he ended that year as the 25th starting pitcher and 79th overall player in fantasy.
DISCLAIMER: This was written before tonight’s start in San Francisco. He is in my DFS lineups so I put my money where my mouth is. Oh God, help me.
Now, Ryu has missed the past two seasons due to arm injuries. He’s currently sporting a 5.87 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 15 1/3 innings. There’s a ton of wear and tear on his arm, as he threw 1269 innings in Korea and 391 in the US. So, why is he the focus of this week’s Bear or Bull? Well, there’s this…
He’s got swag y’all. Plus, there were some things I noticed while digging into the numbers that definitely intrigued me. Finally, he’s free in most leagues and I enjoy free things.
I’m a start-with-the-bad, end-with-the-good kind of guy. If you are of the incorrect philosophical mind, then just read the good section first. I’ll label them to make your life easier. And my wife calls me a selfish a**hole. Psshh.
BAD
The HR/FB% is 54.5. An insanely stupid number which has resulted in a total of six home runs given up. The other number that jumps out at me is the LOB%, which is 90.4%.
GOOD
The K/9 is 9.98 and BB/9 is 2.35. The xFIP is 3.02, compared to the 5.87 ERA. Ryu is inducing a ton of ground balls (2.09 GB/FB), which makes that HR/FB number that much more crazy. He’s inducing more soft contact than ever before (26.7%). That number was 16.1% in 2013. The SwStr% is 12.4%, which puts him in the Top-20 currently. The most positive sign from Ryu in the early going is that the fastball velocity is averaging 89 mph, with it topping out at 91 mph.
ANALYSIS
I recently had a conversation with a buddy of mine and he made a very good point, “April analytics to me was generally pissing in the wind.” While I do not necessarily agree with that statement completely, there is some merit to it. The sample size this early in the season is very small, which provides plenty of noise. Stats stabilize around 1000 at-bats and 300 innings.
With that in mind, let’s break down Ryu’s start. The dude hasn’t pitched in two years. It’s going to take some time to get back in the groove. That 54.5% HR/FB? It’s safe to say that will be coming down by a significant margin. Going back to the threshold for stat stabilization, Ryu has pitched 344 innings his first two years with the Dodgers, when the HR/FB rates were 8.7% and 5.9%. That also means that the K/9 and SwStr% will come down as well. An 8 K/9 with a SwStr% of 8 seems more likely.
We all know wins are unpredicatable, but the Dodgers sport a very good offense and defense, so the potential for wins is in the cards. Everything comes down to health for Ryu. So far, things look good. The beautiful thing about this situation is that the risk/reward is heavily slanted in your favor. It’s all upside. I’ve never been the biggest Ryu fan, but at this cost, it’s a no-brainer. The peripherals are painting a much more positive picture than what the win-loss record and ERA are showing. I do believe that once the rust goes away, Ryu has the chance to get back to his 2013 form.
VERDICT
