For the fantasy owners who drafted Chris Archer back in March, the answer to the question posed in the title is likely quite simple: no, he can’t be trusted. And, well, it’s difficult to argue against the fact that he has been disappointing this season. His earned run average has jumped nearly a full run from last year (3.23 to 4.18), and his 7-16 win-loss record looks like it came directly off of the back of Steve Trachsel’s baseball card. The only thing that seemingly hasn’t changed is his propensity to strike hitters out at an elite rate (his 10.66 K/9 is the 7th highest rate among qualified starting pitchers). Other than the strikeouts, everything else appears to have regressed. So what’s going on with Archer? Can he turn things around or was 2015 just a career year?
Let’s take a look at Archer’s profile to determine what can be expected from him moving forward. Here are a few thoughts and observations:
• It’s been a tale of two halves. In the first half of the season, Archer did his best Robbie Ray impersonation, stumbling to a 4-12 record with a 4.66 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP in 19 starts. In the second half, he’s produced a 3-4 record with a 3.06 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP in 7 starts. A big reason for these superior results is that…
• He’s reduced his walk rate by 61%. Archer’s first half walk rate was a bloated 3.93 BB/9, which helped to contribute to those mediocre ratios that I mentioned in the above blurb. In the second half, he’s cut his walk rate down to 1.53 BB/9, which is the 17th lowest rate among 103 qualifiers. That’s a good way to improve one’s ratios quickly, but how did he achieve such a drastic turnaround in the walk category? A significant change that he has been able to make is to…
• Get ahead of hitters more often. Archer’s 56.0% F-Strike% (first pitch strike percentage) in the first half was the 11th lowest such rate amongst MLB starting pitchers. He’s improved that number to 61.1% in the second half, which equates to a 5.1% increase. Getting ahead of hitters more often has allowed him to stay out of fastball counts and utilize his wipeout slider (.572 OPS against; 19.5% SwStr%) more frequently. Controlling the count has also caused hitters to…
• Swing at more pitches outside of the strike zone. Hitters facing Archer swung at pitches outside of the strike zone (O-Swing%) at a 28.0% rate during the first half. That number has increased 8.9% to 36.9% over his seven second half starts. After falling behind in the count, opponents haven’t been able to sit on Archer’s fastball as often and have expanded the zone against his slider at a much higher clip. While Archer’s overall strikeout rate is virtually identical when comparing the seasonal splits, his swinging strike rate has increased 2.3%, from 11.4% to 13.7%. This expansion of the strike zone against Archer has resulted in…
• An overall decline in quality of contact. Archer has reduced his home run rate significantly from a 1.47 HR/9 in the first half to a 0.96 HR/9 in the second. There’s also been a 2.8% decrease in hard hit percentage, and subsequent 60 and 54 point drops in BABIP and batting average against respectively.
Bottom line: Archer’s early struggles were mostly a result of control issues more than anything else. Falling behind in counts led to more baserunners and hitters sitting on fastballs in those favorable counts, rendering his dominant slider ineffective. The stuff is still there, as is evidenced by his elite strikeout and swinging strike rates. Getting ahead in more counts has allowed him to limit the walks and utilize his dominant slider more effectively during the second half of the season. Archer is back to being the fantasy ace that he was last season, so if his owner has soured on him based on his early struggles (and your trade deadline hasn’t passed yet), now is a good time to buy.
Final Verdict: