They call you lady luck. But there is room for doubt. At times, you have a very unlady-like way of running out. Or so the song goes. Anyways, as we discussed in our BABIP Regression piece, there are a lot of components that go into high and low BABIP over the course of the season. And just as a high BABIP has a lot to say about a player, so does a low BABIP. It should come as no surprise that players with a high FB% come with a low batting average. Go hit a towering shot to center down at the park (and by towering I mean have it clear 2nd base, you pansy) and see how long it lingers in the air. There’s your flyball. It can easily get caught. It’s also no surprise if you’re a no speed guy, if you hit a lot of grounders, you probably ain’t getting many hits. So when reviewing ‘lucky vs unlucky’ BABIPs, it’s good to keep those ideas in mind and I did my best to do so as well with these guys. And also, just like the BABIP regression post, I’ll be using 350 plate appearances just so we keep as consistent as your gram gram is after drinking her prune juice. So without further ado, lets roll on. Here are some likely BABIP bounceback candidates for the 2015 Fantasy Baseball Season…
Brian McCann – 2014 BABIP .231, Career BABIP .283, last three years BABIP .240: So yeah, the stats don’t agree with me. The last three years would lead us to believe that he’s on the decline if we go strictly by BABIP but that is what happens with players who hit a majority of their balls in the air (don’t go there…that’s my job!). Last year McCann had the second highest FB% of his career at 45.1%, his LD% was solid at 22.2%, and his 12.2% HR/FB rate was near his career average of 12.7%. So maybe we can’t project McCann back to his pre-2012 hitter days when he was, at worst, a .280 hitter but with his minimal K%, it’s hard to think he’s not at least a .250+ hitter with a more reasonable BABIP in 2015 again.
Chris Davis – 2014 BABIP .242, Career BABIP .320, last three years BABIP .310: Fun fact! Since 2012, Chris Davis is tied for the most HRs in the major leagues with Edwin Encarnacion at 112 and is just behind Miguel Cabrera’s 113. Another fun fact: Those other two players K% added together still don’t equal his 30.7% over that same stretch. The research on what happened with Chris Davis spans the globe. In fact, Big Magoo gives a great breakdown here if you wanna give it a peek. The reality is, Chris Davis is still the same hitter he has been his entire career but for a bit of the the ‘ole bad luck in 2014. His 2013 will more than likely stay the outlier to his career but a reasonable bounceback to a respectable .260+ average isn’t an otherworldly idea if he can get his BABIP back to .300.
Carlos Santana – 2014 BABIP .249, Career BABIP .274, last three years BABIP .277: Sometimes it’s hard to notice a trend but prior to 2014, it looked like Santana was trending upward with his BABIP. In 2013, he had the highest BABIP of his career at .301 and he hit .268. Then 2014, everything changed…and it had nothing to do with his hitting. The Indians tried unsuccessfully to move Carlos to 3rd last year and I say that both defensively and offensively. Positional moves are great for fantasy owners for the extra flexibility but they can wreak havoc on the players’ numbers. In 26 games at the hot corner, Santana hit .129 with a .154 BABIP and he also struck out 5% more of the time than his final numbers in 2014. Defensive moves can be taxing on a player and it can lead to bad hitting results. I say this because his numbers at first (.295 BABIP with a .274 AVG) are more in line with what we’ve come to expect from the slugger. With a full year at 1st more than likely happening with occasional spells at DH and maybe catcher, I’d look to see Santana keep his power gains but also to bat well above .260 with a normalized BABIP in 2015.
Carlos Beltran – 2014 BABIP .252, Career BABIP .301, last three years BABIP .289: This is definitely a hard call to make. Beltran will turn 38 in April so we could be seeing the beginning of the end for him. That said, 2014 was also an injury-riddled year for Carlos as he played less than 140 games for the first time in four years. His peripherals in walks were decent and his K% was healthy as well, though, so I wouldn’t entirely count Beltran out for the 2015 season. Maybe he’s no longer a hitter who can challenge for hitting .300, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him back up near .260 to .270 with some power in the bat left to boot.
David Ortiz – 2014 BABIP .256, Career BABIP .301, last three years BABIP .296: We didn’t hear much about bad luck with Ortiz because his end line wasn’t hurt by it but this might also be similar to the conversation we had about Beltran above. Ortiz will be 39 this year and despite being an ageless wonder so far, we all know the production has to stop eventually so the question is 2014 the beginning of the end or just a slight blip? I think I’ll take the middle road and say he won’t go back to his career BABIP but he’s also not going to wallow down near .250 based on his BB% and K%. If he mirrors 2014 in real life stats with a better BABIP underneath and maybe a higher average, I wouldn’t be surprised.
