Last year, Avisail Garcia hit seven homers and stole four bases. Whoopie dee do da, who cares?! Moving on! I got a mani-pedi in fifteen minutes, got no time for you! Oh, wait, that was in only 46 games because he was injured. ncjakw– Sorry, my drool was hitting the keyboard. At least I think that’s my drool. Let me taste it. Salty… Ew, gross! Get your mind out of the gutter! It’s my drool, I just ate a Bavarian pretzel! Avisail is so good he made the team without putting on a uniform, went nuts and rode a unicorn through the storm. Avisail’s about to go crazy, but where did you go? Avisail’s about to go crazy, but where did you go? Avisail’s about to go crazy, but where did you go? Avisail’s about to go crazy, damn Hanley’s lazy! Sorry, I was just listening to Atmosphere. Check out this future shizz from September Grey last year, “(Avisail) was a preseason sleeper this year, and he will be again in fifteen-after-twenty because he missed five months this year with an injury. Yes, he looks like Miggy, but he doesn’t act like Miggy. He’s a 20/20 type guy without killing you on average. In this injury-plagued year, his stats don’t look exactly as he has in the past, but that’s probably due to shutting it down in April and starting it up in August. I wouldn’t be surprised if in a few years we look back at this year and see how it didn’t portend anything. Unless he really did learn how to take a walk, as he’s shown this year. Though, I kinda doubt it. I expect he’s a line drive machine, 17-20 homer and 15-steal guy with a solid-enough average. Think what you were expecting from Michael Brantley rather than what you ended up with.” And that’s me quoting me! So, what can we expect of Avisail Garcia for 2015 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
Uh, I just told you. All right, let’s break it down a little further. Last year, he stole 4 bases in 46 games (every 11.5 games — hey, look at the big brain on Grey!); in 2010 he stole a base every 6.25 games; in 2011 every 9.2 games; in 2012 every 5.3; in 2013 every 13.2 games. In short: he steals around one bag every 10 games. Shorter: Avisail should steal around 15 bags in 2015. Shortest: Jose Altuve. As for his power, Avisail hits a ton of grounders; this isn’t great. In the minor leagues, his ground ball rate was 53%. To give you a big picture idea, 53% would’ve been the 14th highest in the majors last year, and Avisail’s rate in the majors last year was 56.2%. His major league career rate is 56.8%. Guys with that high of a ground ball rate are names such as Elvis Andrus, Dee Gordon, Michael Bourn. See a trend? Yeah, it’s not pretty. There’s hope. When Avisail hits a home run, it goes far. An example: Avisail averaged 403.9 feet on his home runs, David Ortiz averaged 401.5 and Au Shizz averaged 399.4. Balls jump out of U.S. Cellular, so that shouldn’t be a problem. Avisail must cut back on his ground balls and elevate more balls. Depending on how well he does this will determine his ceiling. If he takes his ground ball rate down to 50% and fly ball rate up to 33%, he’ll hit around 140 fly balls, which would give him around 21 home runs. Think Ozuna with 15 steals. The same Ozuna that was the 28th best outfielder last year with only 3 steals. That would make Avisail around the 20th best outfielder in 2015 and he’s right now being ranked around the 70th best outfielder. Oh, and I haven’t even mentioned he’s currently slotted into the middle of a potent lineup. Boing it on! For 2015, I’ll give him the projections of 83/18/87/.261/14. Avisail’s about to go crazy and the truth went trendy.
