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As I prepare for my voyage into the Vegas desert, it’s that time of year to look at the futures bets for 2020. 2019 was a terrific betting season for me as I only missed 2 non-World Series winner bets (mostly win totals and prop bets). Realistically, the divisional, pennant, and World Series winners are typically poor bets given the restricted payouts and less likely occurrence than regular season win totals or player vs player prop bets.

Divisional
There are some nice values that can be had from betting divisional winners. Unfortunately, a number of the divisions have pretty clear favorites and aren’t worth the odds. Many times, you have to take the second or third option in the division to make any money. Not a place where I put a lot of money for futures bets, but a couple of gems can be found each season, a la the Twins last season.

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Rudy Gamble stops by the Goin’ Deep podcast to talk about the multitude of drafts going on. Of course, B_Don and Donkey Teeth have to ask Rudy about his RazzSlam draft and his general strategy.

The guys then get Rudy to explain his projections down from the initial ratios to how the player rater works. They also ask about Rudy’s tools from the draft war room to the in season management tools that are just as key to Rudy’s success as the draft tools and projections.

Then, it’s time to discuss Rudy’s mixed LABR draft.  He explains how he approaches his draft for different leagues and the adjustments he makes year to year. Donkey Teeth questions a couple of draft picks in Chris Sale and Cavan Biggio before we jump into Rudy’s team and where his strengths and weaknesses may be.

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Another week, another CBS auction, not that I’m complaining. Love draft season and auctions are the best way to pick a team. If you have been putting off joining an auction, don’t. Fast auction, slow auction, live auction, they are all phenomenal and gives you more choice over team construction than waiting around to see who falls to you in a snake draft.

That being said, this one was all over the place. You can find the full draft results with the CBS write up here.

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For those of you familiar with online auction draft rooms, you know the constant refrain to which the article title refers. Waiting for that final, SOLD, to make sure you can mark the player off your list. Well, I was invited to join the CBS NL auction league hosted by Scott White with many names that you’re likely more familiar with than mine.

Spreadsheets on Spreadsheets

Let me start by plugging Rudy’s tools as part of the Razzball subscription. The War Room alone is worth the price of the subscription and is something I take into every roto or categories draft. Grey can give you the hard sell over in his write up though.

I combine Rudy’s War Room with my auction values. I think of auction values in tiers of players with a range of dollar amounts for that tier. If you have a dollar values assigned to tiers rather than specific player values, you can wait for the value or anticipate the cliff coming in that tier rather than being strict on a specific number.  There is, of course, that delicate balancing act between not overspending early when everyone is flush with money and waiting too long while missing out on all of the top options.

Before entering the auction, I lay out the positions on a spreadsheet and input various dollar amounts for different spending in the auction. It helps me to see what rosters may look like if I take a $45 Christian Yelich vs a $30 Pete Alonso. How spending various amounts at hitting vs pitching can adjust a team’s construction.

It’s nothing fancy, just an Excel spreadsheet using the sum function at the end of each column.

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B_Don and Donkey Teeth are joined again by the Fantasy Master Lothario, Grey Albright, to discuss the NL auction that the trio did over on CBS with Scott White and crew. The guys discuss how they approach draft auction values and how you may want to adjust your values.

Spoiler alert: Rudy liked one of our teams more than Grey’s squad. Grey walks us through his auction thought process. Of course, it’s hitter heavy in traditional Grey Albright fashion. You can check out Grey’s write up here.

Donkey Teeth, is flexible in his yoga positions and flexible in his auction values.  DT spent early and often then went looking for draft values, which he found in guys like Shogo Akiyama and Ender Inciarte. B_Don sits back and listens to Grey and DT argue about which awful pitching staff is better.

B_Don finally gets his turn to talk. While the pitching is far better than almost any team in the league, Grey and DT don’t like the approach that B_Don took with his hitting. In NL only leagues, one has to pick and choose where to spend the money and where the roster weaknesses will be. Keep on the look out for B_Don’s write up of his NL auction experience as well.

After all the NL auction talk, the guys discuss the early rounds of their respective TGFBI drafts and note some unique picks after just a few rounds. All sorts of draft goodness in this episode, so, check it out!

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Contracts, the lifeblood of Major League Baseball. If you’re good enough, after you put in your time making nothing and riding on buses, the team owns you until you run through the rookie contract. Of course teams want to protect themselves from paying the next Jon Singleton, and this is how contracts end up with options. Some favor the team and others the player. It usually boils down to who has more leverage at the bargaining table.

Vested options are typically put on the back end of contracts, especially for older players. Some of these milestones might mean that a guy pushes through a minor injury. Others may put the club in a position where they prefer a player miss their vested option. The team can control the likelihood of completing the option.

For instance, Wade Davis has a vesting option to finish 30 games this season. Given his performance last year, the Rockies are more likely to find an alternative option should he falter or give him more days in between closing opportunities even if he returns to form.

What does this mean for you in fantasy? It means Scott Oberg, Jairo Diaz, and Carlos Estevez become interesting options at the back end of the draft. Oberg had the best numbers last year, but underlying numbers show he might have been lucky and has lost velocity on the fastball the last 3 seasons. Jairo and Estevez both throw upper 90s with sliders.

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Cans and holes, Cans and holes, Astros gotta have their cans and holes.
The Springer, the Pinto, and the former Saint Verlander,
They’ll hit the can on the bottom while we’re swinging at heaters.
Nachos, Hot Dogs on Houston’s field,
They won’t go down cuz Manfred says no.
They won around the league from port to port.
Every time they won, Kate Upton got a JV quart.

Grey joins that other Razzball podcast….for this week. As is standard, B_Don and Donkey Teeth get Grey’s thoughts on RazzSlam (sign up for free here) and talk about Grey’s NFBC Cutline experience in 2019.  The trio tackle the topic of the times in discussing the Astros and how each believes this will affect their seasons in 2020.

The guys wrap up with some discussion about the CBS AL Auction that they participated in. They talk about the auction format of Tout/LABR and these CBS auction leagues. Of the 4 Razzball participants, they each took a bit of a different route to their auction. Tune in and find out which team Grey likes the most. For more information about Grey’s draft, check out his article.

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B_Don and Donkey Teeth are Goin’ Deep with the fantasy baseball pitching guru, Eno Sarris of The Athletic.  The guys discuss the RazzSlam format and ask Eno how he may attack the draft in more of a DFS style. Yeah, it caught me by surprise as well, but listen to see what Eno means.

The Goin’ Deep duo then ask Eno about some pitchers from his rankings that don’t line up with Grey’s rankings including Noah Syndergaard, Yu Darvish, Lucas Giolito and Patrick Corbin.  He tells us which pitcher he’s comfortable with in the 1st round and educates us as to what he looks for in his pitching targets.

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Donkey Teeth and B_Don are joined by Darik Buchar from SportsHub, that’s SPORTShub everyone. They discuss the various National Fantasy Baseball Chapmionship (NFBC) formats and it’s growth from only the main event to where they are now, with leagues from $50 up to $15k.

Darik walks everyone through the new Solo Shot game, similar to the Silver Bullet from football (NFFC), before they get into the Cutline and the modified Cutline format of… THE RAZZSLAM. Some old faces in new places, MLB free agency style wraps up the show.

 

P.S. If you play on NFBC platform, check out this FAAB tutorial, it’ll make your life much easier.

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B_Don and Donkey Teeth welcome back an old friend of the podcast, Prospect 361’s Tim McLeod. The podcast duo run Tim through the regular gamut of Asian players, new and old for the upcoming season.

Tim gives us his opinion on Shohei Ohtani’s value in different league formats and whether there’s any hope for Donkey’s man crush, Yusei Kikuchi. Then, the Canadian wizard gives us the 411 on the players that were posted and signed this off-season including: Yoshi Tsutsugo, Shun Yamaguchi, Shogo Akiyama, Josh Lindblom, Joely Rodriguez, and Kwang Hyun Kim.

There were some audio issues as Tim was giving us some names to watch for next season in Kodai Senga, Yasuaki Yamasaki, and gets down right giddy talking about the newest member of Donkey Teeth’s Prospect Live Dynasty Best Ball squad, Seiya Suzuki.  Tim re-joined the podcast to talk about some prospects he’s looking forward to owning in redraft leagues and a couple that might be overvalued in your drafts.

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While Donkey Teeth finishes up his trip to the zen forest, forest of zen? Anyway, B_Don is joined by fellow Razzballer Roto-Wan to discuss their co-managed Prospects Live 5 Year Best Ball dynasty squad and how they approach a deep draft.

Roto-Don also talk about some of the draft challenges that have come up in the early draft season and how you address your pitching staff may dictate how you attack the first few rounds. Sit down and listen to this classic tale involving fantasy baseball luchadors.

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After a lengthy hiatus, and much world travels, Donkey Teeth and B_Don are back talking baseball on the Goin’ Deep Razzball Podcast. After talking about some of the big free agent landing spots and few of the free agents still yet to sign, the guys introduce the RazzSlam.

The RazzSlam discussion includes a full layout of the rules, point scoring system, playoff and prizes. The B_Don and DT also chat a little about draft strategy and how they might use their very limited RazzSlam FAAB opportunities. Slow drafts will start in late February, sign up here for your chance to compete against some of the biggest names in the industry!

At the back end of the show (36:30) the fellas discuss the Fantrax Best Ball draft B_Don is currently participating in with some industry stalwarts. Find out where Luis Robert, Fernando Tatis Jr, Lucas Giolito, Jo Adell and many other exciting names were drafted.

Please, blog, may I have some more?